MSU @ Iowa
Recommendation: MSU +3
The Spartans roll into Iowa tonight still working out some kinks in their game. Offense hasn’t been much of an issue, and it always grabs your attention when Michigan St. is getting points in conference play. This isn’t an overpowering Michigan St. team currently, but Tom Izzo is as good as it gets at developing his players over the course of the season and helping them improve. I’ve been very impressed with Denzel Valentine, who can score from anywhere on the court and has the ability to create his own shot with relative ease. It’s hard for opposing defenses to double Valentine because MSU has 4 players averaging double figures in scoring. The Spartans are also effective at driving the lane and kicking the ball out. They average over 40% shooting from deep.
Although their record doesn’t necessarily reflect it, MSU has played good defense as of late as well. In fact, they’ve held their opponents to 61 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Reports coming out of Detroit indicate that Coach Izzo is pleased with how the defense is playing. His players should have some added confidence and I expect a solid effort from them tonight. We also have a big coaching mismatch that is taking place. Many handicappers overlook this but the ability for a coach to make the right decisions at crucial moment is of the upmost importance. Izzo definitely has the advantage over McCaffery tonight.
There just seems to be something off with Iowa so far this season. Their record doesn’t indicate it, and many of their stats don’t either, but this team is a bit overvalued to me at the moment. Sometimes the best way to handicap games is by using the “eye test.” Right now Fran McCaffery isn’t getting the most out of his guys. They look lethargic at times, not executing as well as they should. They do a nice job of rebounding and have played well at home, so tonight it’s really going to be all about the Hawkeye’s defense vs. MSU’s offense. Giving the Spartans points looks like a bargain to me. Take Michigan St.
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