I've listened to his shows with Lefkoe, Bill Simmons etc.. for a few years now and he seems like one of the few in the industry that legitimately knows what he's doing. I like his statistical approach to capping, especially with Totals
In 20 years of capping, I've never paid for picks ever, but am thinking about it for the post season. Anyone with first hand experience subscribing to his site?
Big Ballin' since '02
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Curious to see other opinions on Warren Sharp.
I've listened to his shows with Lefkoe, Bill Simmons etc.. for a few years now and he seems like one of the few in the industry that legitimately knows what he's doing. I like his statistical approach to capping, especially with Totals
In 20 years of capping, I've never paid for picks ever, but am thinking about it for the post season. Anyone with first hand experience subscribing to his site?
How has he been doing the last couple of weeks, this year, etc. was thinking of following but there are so many podcasts that seem good PFF, You better you bet, etc. that I just did what I always do and tail covers???
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How has he been doing the last couple of weeks, this year, etc. was thinking of following but there are so many podcasts that seem good PFF, You better you bet, etc. that I just did what I always do and tail covers???
Curious to see other opinions on Warren Sharp. I've listened to his shows with Lefkoe, Bill Simmons etc.. for a few years now and he seems like one of the few in the industry that legitimately knows what he's doing. I like his statistical approach to capping, especially with Totals In 20 years of capping, I've never paid for picks ever, but am thinking about it for the post season. Anyone with first hand experience subscribing to his site?
I had all these same feelings about Sharp coming into this season so I sprung the $1050 for the full season NFL and NCAA package.
He has his "NFL Computer Totals" that he always boasts about that are 60% for 15-20 years he says, anywhere from like 20-50 plays a year. Maybe 50 is a bit much. Anyways, his NFL totals overall for the year did EXTREMELY well. The only problem is he doesnt always let you know which totals are the "computer" totals or regular ones till later or not at all so its a little confusing in that regard. With all that said tho his totals ROCKED and his 1st half totals were seriously like 30-8 or something last time I added it all up. He released some teasers too which did well and his sides were a little blah but 75% of the plays were totals and overall in NFL theres no way you lost money with him unless you quit in the first few weels (either week 1 or week 2 he did awful).
I got the NFL props as well and those seemed really solid BUTTTTTTTTTT its super super super frustrating cuz none of the lines he releases you ever get. I mean sometimes you can but 80% of the time hes OVER 60 receiving yards for someone its 71.5 by the time you get to it. I laid off a ton of props because of that but he still released some absolute gems over the course of the season so I was still very glad I got the props. The 1H nfl totals are frustrating at times too for the same reason especially on key numbers like 21 (he'll release UNDER 20.5 and itll be 21.5) but the plays were so solid you just had to roll with it.
College on the other hand was a shitshow and I finally quit even looking at the college plays after like week 6. It was just 3-8 then a 6-3 then a 2-8 then a 4-5 then a 5-5 it just was going nowhere and NFL was rocking so I said forget it. He absolutely may have rebounded and kicked ass but I dont know, I have all the emails of all the plays I'll probably look it all up in a few weeks when Im bored one day but I gave up on the college.
I felt the same about you as far as paying for plays swore Id never do it again since I was like 22 (im 44 now) but I gave Sharp a shot. When he had a shitty 1st week or two I was pretty pissed about the decision and the rest of the season didnt make nearly the amount of money I should have because I was gun shy. Still made more than the $1050 I spent on the package but I was down about $3500 after week 2 cuz I came out the gate firing $300 a game and bombed. So it took me probably 6-8 weeks just to get back to even cuz I bet less after that but the last 4 or 5 weeks he really made me a lot of money. Had he started out good or even just not terrible I think I would have made about 15-20k from his plays this year.
He has a playoff package and Im not sure I get that but I havent checked yet. I may purchase the playoff package but I definitely will be getting the full season package again next year. I still feel a little slimy saying good things about someone who charges for picks lol but that was my experience this year
1
Quote Originally Posted by Bigballer:
Curious to see other opinions on Warren Sharp. I've listened to his shows with Lefkoe, Bill Simmons etc.. for a few years now and he seems like one of the few in the industry that legitimately knows what he's doing. I like his statistical approach to capping, especially with Totals In 20 years of capping, I've never paid for picks ever, but am thinking about it for the post season. Anyone with first hand experience subscribing to his site?
I had all these same feelings about Sharp coming into this season so I sprung the $1050 for the full season NFL and NCAA package.
He has his "NFL Computer Totals" that he always boasts about that are 60% for 15-20 years he says, anywhere from like 20-50 plays a year. Maybe 50 is a bit much. Anyways, his NFL totals overall for the year did EXTREMELY well. The only problem is he doesnt always let you know which totals are the "computer" totals or regular ones till later or not at all so its a little confusing in that regard. With all that said tho his totals ROCKED and his 1st half totals were seriously like 30-8 or something last time I added it all up. He released some teasers too which did well and his sides were a little blah but 75% of the plays were totals and overall in NFL theres no way you lost money with him unless you quit in the first few weels (either week 1 or week 2 he did awful).
I got the NFL props as well and those seemed really solid BUTTTTTTTTTT its super super super frustrating cuz none of the lines he releases you ever get. I mean sometimes you can but 80% of the time hes OVER 60 receiving yards for someone its 71.5 by the time you get to it. I laid off a ton of props because of that but he still released some absolute gems over the course of the season so I was still very glad I got the props. The 1H nfl totals are frustrating at times too for the same reason especially on key numbers like 21 (he'll release UNDER 20.5 and itll be 21.5) but the plays were so solid you just had to roll with it.
College on the other hand was a shitshow and I finally quit even looking at the college plays after like week 6. It was just 3-8 then a 6-3 then a 2-8 then a 4-5 then a 5-5 it just was going nowhere and NFL was rocking so I said forget it. He absolutely may have rebounded and kicked ass but I dont know, I have all the emails of all the plays I'll probably look it all up in a few weeks when Im bored one day but I gave up on the college.
I felt the same about you as far as paying for plays swore Id never do it again since I was like 22 (im 44 now) but I gave Sharp a shot. When he had a shitty 1st week or two I was pretty pissed about the decision and the rest of the season didnt make nearly the amount of money I should have because I was gun shy. Still made more than the $1050 I spent on the package but I was down about $3500 after week 2 cuz I came out the gate firing $300 a game and bombed. So it took me probably 6-8 weeks just to get back to even cuz I bet less after that but the last 4 or 5 weeks he really made me a lot of money. Had he started out good or even just not terrible I think I would have made about 15-20k from his plays this year.
He has a playoff package and Im not sure I get that but I havent checked yet. I may purchase the playoff package but I definitely will be getting the full season package again next year. I still feel a little slimy saying good things about someone who charges for picks lol but that was my experience this year
If you pay for picks with anyone you are a sucker and you will get buried. I guarantee it.
If these guys could make bank just picking winners they wouldn't need to be touts. The reason they do it is simple: much easier to take money from addicted losers than it is to beat the bookie.
There is no meaningful stats that aren't already built into every line.
If you use a tout first thing they'll tell you to do is bet bigger amounts. So that you can cover their fees. Then if you lose you get crushed. If you win you will get suckered into thinking this guy really is a guru and eventually lose big anyway. You cant win if you need to cover a touts fees, it's like paying -160 on every bet instead of -110.
Think about this: you've watched enough NFL recently to know how many games the result comes down to the last drive: plenty. Look at the Raiders game, the Chargers game, the Steelers game this past weekend. Bills didnt get that cover till very late last 2 mins. Bucs score looks a blowout it wasn't til late on either.
These guys don't have any magic formulas, you'll still be sweating out 2 point conversion attempts and referee reviews in the 4th quarter to try and get on the right side of the number, you'll just be more stressed out because you bet more money than usual and you already flushed money to the scamdicapper.
I've posted all this before so I hope you appreciate me typing it all out again for yet another noob. Touts are scum. Avoid at all costs.
1
If you pay for picks with anyone you are a sucker and you will get buried. I guarantee it.
If these guys could make bank just picking winners they wouldn't need to be touts. The reason they do it is simple: much easier to take money from addicted losers than it is to beat the bookie.
There is no meaningful stats that aren't already built into every line.
If you use a tout first thing they'll tell you to do is bet bigger amounts. So that you can cover their fees. Then if you lose you get crushed. If you win you will get suckered into thinking this guy really is a guru and eventually lose big anyway. You cant win if you need to cover a touts fees, it's like paying -160 on every bet instead of -110.
Think about this: you've watched enough NFL recently to know how many games the result comes down to the last drive: plenty. Look at the Raiders game, the Chargers game, the Steelers game this past weekend. Bills didnt get that cover till very late last 2 mins. Bucs score looks a blowout it wasn't til late on either.
These guys don't have any magic formulas, you'll still be sweating out 2 point conversion attempts and referee reviews in the 4th quarter to try and get on the right side of the number, you'll just be more stressed out because you bet more money than usual and you already flushed money to the scamdicapper.
I've posted all this before so I hope you appreciate me typing it all out again for yet another noob. Touts are scum. Avoid at all costs.
Jesus christ you are actually thinking of buying picks again, will you reread what you just wrote?
Exactly like I said always happens above you say 'I came out firing 300 a game' and was down 3k+ right away and took ages to get even. Usually they start telling you to be 400 or more a game. Sucker bettors get all this confidence from these clowns and get in over their heads because they start betting big trying to get the fee they paid back.
And so this guy gives out totals, sides, teasers AND props on NFL and college. Why do you think that is?
It's because he knows the gambler's mindset is always more more more.
But guess what, you play sides, teasers totals and props you will rarely end up in profit. You have too many bets going. The more bets you have the more likely you are to have disasters too - in my experience. It might seem like you have the same chance as going 15-3 with 18 bets on a day as going 3-15 but ask anyone who has betting a long time, usually too many bets is bad. The way I look at it is the more bets you make the more winners you have to pick and if it was easy to pick winners the bookies wouldn't be in business. I'd rather have to pick 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 to be in profit rather than have to pick 6 out of 10.
If I go 1-2 or 1-3 I still only need a winner or two to get back to even.
Paying a grand for some guy to spit out 50 picks a week at ya give me a break.
Another key scamdicapper technique you mentioned: lines that don't exist only for them. That's how they hit those high percentages. They base them off numbers that you can't get action on.
It's all BS man if you wont do your own work to make picks just get another hobby.
PS: guess what, his real name probably isn't even Warren Sharp
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@Carpinteria
Jesus christ you are actually thinking of buying picks again, will you reread what you just wrote?
Exactly like I said always happens above you say 'I came out firing 300 a game' and was down 3k+ right away and took ages to get even. Usually they start telling you to be 400 or more a game. Sucker bettors get all this confidence from these clowns and get in over their heads because they start betting big trying to get the fee they paid back.
And so this guy gives out totals, sides, teasers AND props on NFL and college. Why do you think that is?
It's because he knows the gambler's mindset is always more more more.
But guess what, you play sides, teasers totals and props you will rarely end up in profit. You have too many bets going. The more bets you have the more likely you are to have disasters too - in my experience. It might seem like you have the same chance as going 15-3 with 18 bets on a day as going 3-15 but ask anyone who has betting a long time, usually too many bets is bad. The way I look at it is the more bets you make the more winners you have to pick and if it was easy to pick winners the bookies wouldn't be in business. I'd rather have to pick 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 to be in profit rather than have to pick 6 out of 10.
If I go 1-2 or 1-3 I still only need a winner or two to get back to even.
Paying a grand for some guy to spit out 50 picks a week at ya give me a break.
Another key scamdicapper technique you mentioned: lines that don't exist only for them. That's how they hit those high percentages. They base them off numbers that you can't get action on.
It's all BS man if you wont do your own work to make picks just get another hobby.
PS: guess what, his real name probably isn't even Warren Sharp
I like Sharp but there is so much good free content out there. I’ve decided on two go-to betting shows but I still make my own decisions and never swear by anyone.
I listen to You Better You Bet with Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley. What I love is Mondays they do Pencil, Pen, Blood, or Blank and give great analysis on opening lines. Then, they do Games Ken Already Bet on Tuesdays, It Moved Line Movements on Wednesdays, Friday Bets, and then Sunday Best Bets / Props.
If you subscribe to their podcast you’ll get this in clips vs. their full Audacy shows. On Sunday mornings I listen live through Bet QL on Twitch from 10 - 12 (esp. 11-12).
The second show I like is Bet On It Wednesdays on YouTube with Kelly Stewart, Marco D’Angelo, and Gianni the Greek Gambler. Kelly herself was 14-4 on NFL Best Bets this season. They do prime time games, trends and angles with Ralph Michaels, Teasers, Trap/Sandwich and Steam game, Barking Dogs, and Best Bets.
With both these shows, I listen but then make my own decisions. Sometimes they do help me confirm a lean I already had, but I don’t blindly go with their picks.
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I like Sharp but there is so much good free content out there. I’ve decided on two go-to betting shows but I still make my own decisions and never swear by anyone.
I listen to You Better You Bet with Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley. What I love is Mondays they do Pencil, Pen, Blood, or Blank and give great analysis on opening lines. Then, they do Games Ken Already Bet on Tuesdays, It Moved Line Movements on Wednesdays, Friday Bets, and then Sunday Best Bets / Props.
If you subscribe to their podcast you’ll get this in clips vs. their full Audacy shows. On Sunday mornings I listen live through Bet QL on Twitch from 10 - 12 (esp. 11-12).
The second show I like is Bet On It Wednesdays on YouTube with Kelly Stewart, Marco D’Angelo, and Gianni the Greek Gambler. Kelly herself was 14-4 on NFL Best Bets this season. They do prime time games, trends and angles with Ralph Michaels, Teasers, Trap/Sandwich and Steam game, Barking Dogs, and Best Bets.
With both these shows, I listen but then make my own decisions. Sometimes they do help me confirm a lean I already had, but I don’t blindly go with their picks.
@Carpinteria Jesus christ you are actually thinking of buying picks again, will you reread what you just wrote? Exactly like I said always happens above you say 'I came out firing 300 a game' and was down 3k+ right away and took ages to get even. Usually they start telling you to be 400 or more a game. Sucker bettors get all this confidence from these clowns and get in over their heads because they start betting big trying to get the fee they paid back. And so this guy gives out totals, sides, teasers AND props on NFL and college. Why do you think that is? It's because he knows the gambler's mindset is always more more more. But guess what, you play sides, teasers totals and props you will rarely end up in profit. You have too many bets going. The more bets you have the more likely you are to have disasters too - in my experience. It might seem like you have the same chance as going 15-3 with 18 bets on a day as going 3-15 but ask anyone who has betting a long time, usually too many bets is bad. The way I look at it is the more bets you make the more winners you have to pick and if it was easy to pick winners the bookies wouldn't be in business. I'd rather have to pick 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 to be in profit rather than have to pick 6 out of 10. If I go 1-2 or 1-3 I still only need a winner or two to get back to even. Paying a grand for some guy to spit out 50 picks a week at ya give me a break. Another key scamdicapper technique you mentioned: lines that don't exist only for them. That's how they hit those high percentages. They base them off numbers that you can't get action on. It's all BS man if you wont do your own work to make picks just get another hobby.
I dont disagree with your opinion on touts overall in the slightest but this guy is a tad different. The reason I didnt win money was because of my poor money management at the beginning of the season, not because of his plays. I preach money management 24/7 and I came in with like a 15 unit bankroll which was absurd, had I come in with the same bankroll as I do with my NBA stuff I'd have been fine. Also theres no interaction with Warren, there's no phone calls or games of the year or anything like that so theres none of that scamdicapper angle with him. He just emails/texts the plays, theyre all pretty much .50, .70, or 1.0 Units and thats that.
I again agree with you 100% on 99.9% of these guys but Sharp the one year I had him he did great. He was easily over 57%, if not 60%, overall on his NFL stuff so that flame job by me the first few weeks of the season isnt his fault. You come to an NFL season with a 15 unit bankroll like I did you deserve to lose.
I have been burned countless times in my late teens and early 20s by touts so I get everything youre saying. Sharp seems to be one guy who may be a little above the fray. Im sure he burned many people those first few weeks though, guys like me who bet stupid.
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Quote Originally Posted by NutinButtLove:
@Carpinteria Jesus christ you are actually thinking of buying picks again, will you reread what you just wrote? Exactly like I said always happens above you say 'I came out firing 300 a game' and was down 3k+ right away and took ages to get even. Usually they start telling you to be 400 or more a game. Sucker bettors get all this confidence from these clowns and get in over their heads because they start betting big trying to get the fee they paid back. And so this guy gives out totals, sides, teasers AND props on NFL and college. Why do you think that is? It's because he knows the gambler's mindset is always more more more. But guess what, you play sides, teasers totals and props you will rarely end up in profit. You have too many bets going. The more bets you have the more likely you are to have disasters too - in my experience. It might seem like you have the same chance as going 15-3 with 18 bets on a day as going 3-15 but ask anyone who has betting a long time, usually too many bets is bad. The way I look at it is the more bets you make the more winners you have to pick and if it was easy to pick winners the bookies wouldn't be in business. I'd rather have to pick 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 to be in profit rather than have to pick 6 out of 10. If I go 1-2 or 1-3 I still only need a winner or two to get back to even. Paying a grand for some guy to spit out 50 picks a week at ya give me a break. Another key scamdicapper technique you mentioned: lines that don't exist only for them. That's how they hit those high percentages. They base them off numbers that you can't get action on. It's all BS man if you wont do your own work to make picks just get another hobby.
I dont disagree with your opinion on touts overall in the slightest but this guy is a tad different. The reason I didnt win money was because of my poor money management at the beginning of the season, not because of his plays. I preach money management 24/7 and I came in with like a 15 unit bankroll which was absurd, had I come in with the same bankroll as I do with my NBA stuff I'd have been fine. Also theres no interaction with Warren, there's no phone calls or games of the year or anything like that so theres none of that scamdicapper angle with him. He just emails/texts the plays, theyre all pretty much .50, .70, or 1.0 Units and thats that.
I again agree with you 100% on 99.9% of these guys but Sharp the one year I had him he did great. He was easily over 57%, if not 60%, overall on his NFL stuff so that flame job by me the first few weeks of the season isnt his fault. You come to an NFL season with a 15 unit bankroll like I did you deserve to lose.
I have been burned countless times in my late teens and early 20s by touts so I get everything youre saying. Sharp seems to be one guy who may be a little above the fray. Im sure he burned many people those first few weeks though, guys like me who bet stupid.
I'm not a fan of paying for services either, but I consider Warren Sharp different from the traditional tout. If you're familiar with his background, his approach to capping is almost purely driven by data/analytics, and getting early lines on Totals. Unless you subscribe to his services, the total often swings several points by the time you catch wind of it. He also does consulting for NFL Teams in the off-season, on how they can utilize analytics. Whether teams use it or not, who knows, but it does add to his credibility.
Anyhow, I saw his Totals record on his site, and was wondering how legit it is
Big Ballin' since '02
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Appreciate the feedback here
I'm not a fan of paying for services either, but I consider Warren Sharp different from the traditional tout. If you're familiar with his background, his approach to capping is almost purely driven by data/analytics, and getting early lines on Totals. Unless you subscribe to his services, the total often swings several points by the time you catch wind of it. He also does consulting for NFL Teams in the off-season, on how they can utilize analytics. Whether teams use it or not, who knows, but it does add to his credibility.
Anyhow, I saw his Totals record on his site, and was wondering how legit it is
Appreciate the feedback here I'm not a fan of paying for services either, but I consider Warren Sharp different from the traditional tout. If you're familiar with his background, his approach to capping is almost purely driven by data/analytics, and getting early lines on Totals. Unless you subscribe to his services, the total often swings several points by the time you catch wind of it. He also does consulting for NFL Teams in the off-season, on how they can utilize analytics. Whether teams use it or not, who knows, but it does add to his credibility. Anyhow, I saw his Totals record on his site, and was wondering how legit it is
One thing I like about Ken Barkley is he combines the data points he has with some intuition. Good gut instincts on “My number is this but…” and he usually has sound reasoning.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bigballer:
Appreciate the feedback here I'm not a fan of paying for services either, but I consider Warren Sharp different from the traditional tout. If you're familiar with his background, his approach to capping is almost purely driven by data/analytics, and getting early lines on Totals. Unless you subscribe to his services, the total often swings several points by the time you catch wind of it. He also does consulting for NFL Teams in the off-season, on how they can utilize analytics. Whether teams use it or not, who knows, but it does add to his credibility. Anyhow, I saw his Totals record on his site, and was wondering how legit it is
One thing I like about Ken Barkley is he combines the data points he has with some intuition. Good gut instincts on “My number is this but…” and he usually has sound reasoning.
Hey just curious if you have any update? I signed up for the full season 2023 after crushing week 1 on a basically free week. Now I am pretty pissed because it’s been downhill since. The totals are surprisingly poor, not even close to even 50%. I expected more since he brags so much about his computer model but has not met the hype at all! Everything else your saying is spot on! Haha college isn’t going anywhere thru 10 weeks. Props have been shaky but getting better. Just curious now after the fact if you have any reflections. Thanks.
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@Carpinteria
Hey just curious if you have any update? I signed up for the full season 2023 after crushing week 1 on a basically free week. Now I am pretty pissed because it’s been downhill since. The totals are surprisingly poor, not even close to even 50%. I expected more since he brags so much about his computer model but has not met the hype at all! Everything else your saying is spot on! Haha college isn’t going anywhere thru 10 weeks. Props have been shaky but getting better. Just curious now after the fact if you have any reflections. Thanks.
Not. Even as a subscriber by the time he releases plays numbers have swung and sometimes past key numbers. Even at the number he releases I have been tracking the plays and do not get close to what he advertises…. Getting serious sham vibes. Will update if changes but thus far, hack!
1
@Bigballer
Not. Even as a subscriber by the time he releases plays numbers have swung and sometimes past key numbers. Even at the number he releases I have been tracking the plays and do not get close to what he advertises…. Getting serious sham vibes. Will update if changes but thus far, hack!
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