Posted:
#1
What do you do before you decide you lay money down on a pick? What is it that's the deciding factor? What needs to line up for you in a game matchup for you to say you like one side or another? What you do during that process ultimately decides whether you are a winner or loser. I know that I have changed my outlook on what needs to be done. If you are looking at game and player stats then you have already lost IMO. There's not a stat you can uncover that won't be factored into the line, plus the line makers have access to stats and intimate team info that the avg. bettor will never know. If you think Vegas/Costa Rica Sports Books are good at what they do then there can be no advantage gained by analyzing stats. Let's face it they have software that can analyze the stats of a game way more in depth than you ever could. Knowing that a team with a bad run D is playing a good running team is not knowing anything. Let's face it, how many people can really open the newspaper, or in this day and age go to the laptop, and pick winners out of their ass 52 weeks every year? The access just isn't there fpr the avg. bettor to be that chop out winner winning fractions of units each day across all sports. Sports books are erected on the backs of the nickel and dime bettor who has nothing more than stats out of a newspaper or laptop to come to battle with.
I've always been a numbers guy, was always good in math in school. I've been studying the ATS records of both teams and bettors for just about 11 months now. I have realized a very important fact. Skewed records return to the mean. For sports with spreads, in theory, every bettor and every team should be close to 50% once enough trials have been run. I can tell you I have been collecting public opinions and entering them into software. Every bettor that has entered more than 700 opinions is somewhere between 52% and 49%. There's about a dozen people that have done so and all of them are that close to 50%. Someone who starts out at 65% over the first few weeks of NFL will have a correction period where they win only 35% of the time. I've watched it happen time and time again happen to people. And vice-versa, if someone starts out cold as ice they will have a hot streak at some point. Same goes for teams.
For Instance, using a Trend Query research tool I have developed I was able to find out that the San Diego Chargers are 7 - 2 - 1 ATS (77.78%) as a Road/Dog between 3 and 6.5 the last three seasons. I predict that a correction will start this season. I expect SD to be a Road dog between 3 and 6.5 at least 4 out of the 8 road games, maybe more. We'll see. I found lots more really skewed stats with the teams in the NFL as well. I'll list them on the boards as the season nears. I bet if you just wagered upon these corrections and left your personal opinion out of it that you would win money for the season. I really feel most bettors are standing in the way of their own success. They overrate their abilities or just go with their gut. Our opinions are useful if we had a place where we could enter them and have them go into the pot with all the other opinions that were offered and then use search and filter tools that allowed you to pull certain opinions from the community based on the ability of the handicappers, or based on who is currently hot or cold, or based upon what kind of streak individual bettors are on. It's like one thread of silk, by itself it is weak and can be torn, but put it with hundreds or thousand of other silk strands and it is impenetrable.
Right now I am near completion of software that will look for these skews and time them as well as far as when is the highest probability for them to break, also each community member will have access to tools that will allow them to sift through the opinions in every game's betting pool using a various combination of filters, and access to the Trend Query tool so you can look for the skews yourself. Upward and Downward trend data will be calculated and graphed for every user and every team. Use the data to predict corrections, look for when corrections of teams line up with the corrections of bettors. There will be many more tools as well. Nothing costs money either. The only thing you have to pay is with your opinion. Entering Your opinion gets you past the firewall and gives you access to many, many unique tools you have never seen or used before. If you are a $25 or $50 bettor and you are tired of doing what you are doing, I have an unbelievable alternative for you that will cost you nothing and certainly do much better than you will ever do on your own.
I've always been a numbers guy, was always good in math in school. I've been studying the ATS records of both teams and bettors for just about 11 months now. I have realized a very important fact. Skewed records return to the mean. For sports with spreads, in theory, every bettor and every team should be close to 50% once enough trials have been run. I can tell you I have been collecting public opinions and entering them into software. Every bettor that has entered more than 700 opinions is somewhere between 52% and 49%. There's about a dozen people that have done so and all of them are that close to 50%. Someone who starts out at 65% over the first few weeks of NFL will have a correction period where they win only 35% of the time. I've watched it happen time and time again happen to people. And vice-versa, if someone starts out cold as ice they will have a hot streak at some point. Same goes for teams.
For Instance, using a Trend Query research tool I have developed I was able to find out that the San Diego Chargers are 7 - 2 - 1 ATS (77.78%) as a Road/Dog between 3 and 6.5 the last three seasons. I predict that a correction will start this season. I expect SD to be a Road dog between 3 and 6.5 at least 4 out of the 8 road games, maybe more. We'll see. I found lots more really skewed stats with the teams in the NFL as well. I'll list them on the boards as the season nears. I bet if you just wagered upon these corrections and left your personal opinion out of it that you would win money for the season. I really feel most bettors are standing in the way of their own success. They overrate their abilities or just go with their gut. Our opinions are useful if we had a place where we could enter them and have them go into the pot with all the other opinions that were offered and then use search and filter tools that allowed you to pull certain opinions from the community based on the ability of the handicappers, or based on who is currently hot or cold, or based upon what kind of streak individual bettors are on. It's like one thread of silk, by itself it is weak and can be torn, but put it with hundreds or thousand of other silk strands and it is impenetrable.
Right now I am near completion of software that will look for these skews and time them as well as far as when is the highest probability for them to break, also each community member will have access to tools that will allow them to sift through the opinions in every game's betting pool using a various combination of filters, and access to the Trend Query tool so you can look for the skews yourself. Upward and Downward trend data will be calculated and graphed for every user and every team. Use the data to predict corrections, look for when corrections of teams line up with the corrections of bettors. There will be many more tools as well. Nothing costs money either. The only thing you have to pay is with your opinion. Entering Your opinion gets you past the firewall and gives you access to many, many unique tools you have never seen or used before. If you are a $25 or $50 bettor and you are tired of doing what you are doing, I have an unbelievable alternative for you that will cost you nothing and certainly do much better than you will ever do on your own.
0
I come on here and say," who does Lang like?" And then I go the other way.
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