Going to share my daily picks on here. Hopefully, some of you can make some money when tailing. Over the last 8 years, I have been working on a model on-and-off. Spent some time last year finalizing and testing it and had successful results. This isn't your usual data aggregation overlaid with log normal regression (i.e. probability of winning versus implied probability). My model combines aspects of statistical methodologies, trending and momentum to make selections.
Without going into the nuts and bolts of it… and I do not want to get into the nuts and bolts of it all… the model is meant to temper down the frequency of betting to about 250-300 games per year. This is equivalent to ~10% of all NBA games, which is enough in my opinion. There will be some days with 0 picks and others with 5. My whole intention is to create a winning system that is easy to stick to and not use sports betting as a means of daily entertainment. I do envision a future where sports betting can be used as a method to diversify your asset holdings from macroeconomic risk - very similar to how wealthy individuals invest in fine art and wine. This will likely still be a small market given the gambling label slapped on it.
Anyways, the model has been back tested for the last 7 seasons - resulting in a ~59% cumulative win rate. Seasonal winning percentages ranged between 51% - 66%, with only one losing season (that being the 2014 NBA season at 51% win rate, which is below 52.4% breakeven rate for -110 juice rates). Break downs below:
2014 Season: 50.8% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: -20%)
2015 Season: 53.4% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: -4%)
2016 Season: 57.9% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 124%)
2017 Season: 62.0% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 342%)
2018 Season: 65.6% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 710%)
2019 Season: 60.7% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 339%)
2020 Season: 61.0% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 313%)
I will post selections 1-2 hours before first tipoff of the day... depending on my actual job's schedule. I will not communicate in units but % of bankroll. This will make it easier to adjust for people to translate to their risk allocation. Using % of bankroll helps us get the benefit of daily compounding, hence the 300%+ returns in winning seasons. Bet size ranges from 2.3 – 6.0% of bankroll. Average bet size is intended to last for an excess of 30 losses compared to wins (i.e. 60 losses and 30 wins)… this is conservative when compared to the model’s worst excess loss score of -16 in 2014 season (16 more losses than wins) over the span of seven season.
Results will be communicated 3 ways: (1) win rate; (2) invested capital ("IC") balance appreciation (appreciation of initial invested capital/balance); and (3) bankroll appreciation (shown in daily record). I acknowledge that there will be great winning weeks and bad losing weeks... but I am confident we will have more winning weeks than losing weeks. It is a game of risk management and long-run patience... that is what I learned last year.
I already have a twitter for this - @ZenNBApicks - so feel free to follow if you would like notifications. Current NBA season record is 12-10 (54.5% win rate and +7.6% appreciation). You can verify on the twitter.
-Zen
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey Everyone,
Going to share my daily picks on here. Hopefully, some of you can make some money when tailing. Over the last 8 years, I have been working on a model on-and-off. Spent some time last year finalizing and testing it and had successful results. This isn't your usual data aggregation overlaid with log normal regression (i.e. probability of winning versus implied probability). My model combines aspects of statistical methodologies, trending and momentum to make selections.
Without going into the nuts and bolts of it… and I do not want to get into the nuts and bolts of it all… the model is meant to temper down the frequency of betting to about 250-300 games per year. This is equivalent to ~10% of all NBA games, which is enough in my opinion. There will be some days with 0 picks and others with 5. My whole intention is to create a winning system that is easy to stick to and not use sports betting as a means of daily entertainment. I do envision a future where sports betting can be used as a method to diversify your asset holdings from macroeconomic risk - very similar to how wealthy individuals invest in fine art and wine. This will likely still be a small market given the gambling label slapped on it.
Anyways, the model has been back tested for the last 7 seasons - resulting in a ~59% cumulative win rate. Seasonal winning percentages ranged between 51% - 66%, with only one losing season (that being the 2014 NBA season at 51% win rate, which is below 52.4% breakeven rate for -110 juice rates). Break downs below:
2014 Season: 50.8% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: -20%)
2015 Season: 53.4% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: -4%)
2016 Season: 57.9% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 124%)
2017 Season: 62.0% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 342%)
2018 Season: 65.6% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 710%)
2019 Season: 60.7% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 339%)
2020 Season: 61.0% win rate (Return on Invested Capital: 313%)
I will post selections 1-2 hours before first tipoff of the day... depending on my actual job's schedule. I will not communicate in units but % of bankroll. This will make it easier to adjust for people to translate to their risk allocation. Using % of bankroll helps us get the benefit of daily compounding, hence the 300%+ returns in winning seasons. Bet size ranges from 2.3 – 6.0% of bankroll. Average bet size is intended to last for an excess of 30 losses compared to wins (i.e. 60 losses and 30 wins)… this is conservative when compared to the model’s worst excess loss score of -16 in 2014 season (16 more losses than wins) over the span of seven season.
Results will be communicated 3 ways: (1) win rate; (2) invested capital ("IC") balance appreciation (appreciation of initial invested capital/balance); and (3) bankroll appreciation (shown in daily record). I acknowledge that there will be great winning weeks and bad losing weeks... but I am confident we will have more winning weeks than losing weeks. It is a game of risk management and long-run patience... that is what I learned last year.
I already have a twitter for this - @ZenNBApicks - so feel free to follow if you would like notifications. Current NBA season record is 12-10 (54.5% win rate and +7.6% appreciation). You can verify on the twitter.
Covers has some pretty serious restrictions on post frequency for new users, so I had to create a second account to post here. I have no idea why I am getting the error of being able to only post 5 times a day when I only posted once today.
Anyways, expect me to be less active here until those are removed. Please follow my twitter @ZenNBApicks for more updates.
January 27 Picks:
Nets / Hawks Under (3.3% bankroll)
Mavs / Jazz Under (3.0% bankroll)
Timberwolves / Jazz Under (3.0% bankroll)
Pistons / Cavs Under (2.4% bankroll)
Suns / Thunder Under (2.4% bankroll)
Mavs ATS (2.5% bankroll)
Warriors ATS (2.5% bankroll)
I always take closing line, so assume that will be the line I take. Model was tested using closing lines, so I do not want to pretend or waste energy predicting line movements.
Good luck to all.
-Zen
0
Hey all,
Covers has some pretty serious restrictions on post frequency for new users, so I had to create a second account to post here. I have no idea why I am getting the error of being able to only post 5 times a day when I only posted once today.
Anyways, expect me to be less active here until those are removed. Please follow my twitter @ZenNBApicks for more updates.
January 27 Picks:
Nets / Hawks Under (3.3% bankroll)
Mavs / Jazz Under (3.0% bankroll)
Timberwolves / Jazz Under (3.0% bankroll)
Pistons / Cavs Under (2.4% bankroll)
Suns / Thunder Under (2.4% bankroll)
Mavs ATS (2.5% bankroll)
Warriors ATS (2.5% bankroll)
I always take closing line, so assume that will be the line I take. Model was tested using closing lines, so I do not want to pretend or waste energy predicting line movements.
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