My Olympic Betting Thread

Hello everyone! It's exciting to have the Winter Olympics back. I have great memories from being in downtown Vancouver four years ago. I will be very active in betting on various events, so here we go:

FUTURES:

RUSSIA (MEN'S HOCKEY) NOT TO WIN GOLD   -254   3 UNITS
CANADA (MEN'S HOCKEY) TO WIN GOLD         +189  2 UNITS
USA (MEN'S HOCKEY) TO WIN GOLD                +552  1 UNIT
USA (WOMEN'S HOCKEY) NOT TO WIN GOLD   -109   2 UNITS
RUSSIA (WOMEN'S HOCKEY) TO WIN GROUP B -123 2 UNITS
CANADA (WOMEN'S CURLING) WIN GOLD         +128  2 UNITS
CANADA (MEN'S CURLING) WIN GOLD               -163  2 UNITS


 

Now on to individual events/games (1 Unit each):

Davis/White (Ice dancing) Not to win gold +173   
Torah Bright (snowboarding slopestyle) to beat Isabel Derungs -130 
Anna Gasser (snowbarding slopestyle) to beat Jamie Anderson    +157
Ireen Wunt (women's 3000m speedskating) to win gold +110
Aksel Lund Svindval (Downhill skiing) to win gold +214
Manuel Osborne Paradis (downhill skiing) to beat Jan Hudec -138

BOL my friend

Adding for tonight's downhill skiing:

Mayer to beat Franz -130
Guay to beat Kroell -170
Fill to beat Heel -230
Miller to win gold +240 at 0.5 Units(I couldn't resist, as his odds kept going higher) .

Adding:

Japan (women's hockey) +3.5 -167
Sweden/Japan (women's hockey) Under 6.5 -171 **2 Units**

nice results so far dude - keep it up!

Torah Bright (snowboarding slopestyle) to beat Isabel Derungs -130 
Anna Gasser (snowbarding slopestyle) to beat Jamie Anderson    +157
Ireen Wunt (women's 3000m speedskating) to win gold +110
Aksel Lund Svindval (Downhill skiing) to win gold +214
Manuel Osborne Paradis (downhill skiing) to beat Jan Hudec -138
Mayer to beat Franz -130
Guay to beat Kroell -170
Fill to beat Heel -230
Miller to win gold +240 at 0.5 Units
Japan (women's hockey) +3.5 -167
Sweden/Japan (women's hockey) Under 6.5 -171 **2 Units*


RECORD SO FAR:

7-4 +4.22 UNITS

I'm looking through some possible plays for later, so I'll update soon. For now, I will add:

Charles Hamelin (500m Short track) to win gold +247

Sara Takanashi (Women's ski jump) not to win gold +126 **2 UNIT**
Daniela Irashko-Stolz (Women's ski jump) to win gold +177  0.5 units

Takanashi is the heavy favourite here, however Stolz had the best distance in both practice runs this week. Takanashi won the third practice, but noly because Stolz chose not to participate. In the other two runs, Takanashi finished 2nd and 3rd. There is a lot of value on Stolz to win.

Men's Curling:

Denmark +101
Canada -4.5 +110
Great Britain -2.5 -123
Sweden -1.5  +114

Denmark +101
Canada -4.5 +110
Great Britain -2.5 -123
Sweden -1.5  +114

2-2 +0.14 Units in Curling thus far. My Olympic record to date is 9-6 +4.36 Units.

Still pending (not including my futures):

Sara Takanashi (Women's ski jump) not to win gold +126 **2 UNIT**
Daniela Irashko-Stolz (Women's ski jump) to win gold +177  0.5 units
Davis/White (Ice dancing) Not to win gold +173
Charles Hamelin (500m Short track) to win gold +247

Adding:

Charles Hamelin (1500m short track) to win gold +307  0.5 Units
Swiss (Women's hockey)  +6.5   -116
Swiss/USA Under 7.5   -118
Finland +4.5
Great Britain (women's curling)  +109
Denmark +136
Canada -1.5  -145
Swiss -1.5  -171 

After a sh*t ton of research on the men's 1500 metre speed skating short track, I've got five more plays, each for a unit:

Sjinkie Knegt to beat Da-Woon Sin +124
Sjinkie Knegt to beat John Robert Celski -112
Charles Hamelin to beat Victor Ahn -136
Charles Hamelin to beat Han-Bin Lee -101
Victor Ahn to beat Da-Woon Sin -134

It's a busy night, but I've spent the last two days researching curling, women's hockey and the short track and I feel pretty confident. Good luck!

Charles Hamelin (1500m short track) to win gold +307  0.5 Units
Swiss (Women's hockey)  +6.5   -116
Swiss/USA Under 7.5   -118
Finland +4.5
Great Britain (women's curling)  +109
Denmark +136
Canada -1.5  -145
Swiss -1.5  -171
Sjinkie Knegt to beat Da-Woon Sin +124
Sjinkie Knegt to beat John Robert Celski -112
Charles Hamelin to beat Victor Ahn -136
Charles Hamelin to beat Han-Bin Lee -101
Victor Ahn to beat Da-Woon Sin -134

I went 7-6 last night  +1.08 Units. Charles Hamelin's 1500 metre gold win was a nice way to top off the night. Knegt was leading his semifinal race in the final corner before being taken down by an aggressive skating trying to pass, otherwise I could have had a much better day, but sh*t happens. I'll have more for you later.

UPDATED RECORD:

16-12  +5.44 UNITS

good job man. 

BOL on your plays 

Thanks to everyone who has wished me the best. Let's keep making money!

On to business. I have done some rather extensive research into the women's slopestyle skiing and am finding some interesting trends. Below I will list a small database I have complied for your betting information, with plays to follow. The information will be presented as:
Skiier, 1st place finishes this season, top 3 finishes this season, 1st place finishes in the last 2 years, top 3 finishes in the last 2 years.

Skiier     1st (13/14)  Top 3 (13/14)  1st ('12-'14)  Top 3 ('12-14)

Turski  3 of 4 (75%)   4 of 4 (100%)  9 of 12 (75%)  7 of 8 (88%)
Howell  1 of 8 (13%)  6 of 8 (75%)    1 of 20 (5%)    12 of 20 (60%)
Logan   2 of 7 (29%)  4 of 7 (57%)    4 of 14 (29%)  10 of 14 (71 %)
Herman 1 of 7 (14%)  2 of 7 (29%)   3 of 16  (19%)  4 of 16  (25%)
Zimmerman 1 of 6 (17%)  2 of 6 (33%)  ---------          --------------

So these are the top 5 where odds are concerned. Maggie Voisin would have been another solid competitor, but she suffered an ankle injury in practice on Friday and will not compete. So as you can see, it's a fairly competitive field, but Turski immediately jumps out. She has won 75% of the competitions she has entered this year and last year. She clearly is competing a step above the rest, and the odds on her +308!!! I'm making this a 2 UNIT PLAY!! I really wish my book had odds on a podium finish, because you could probably get that around even odds, and I would make my first ever 5 unit play!! If anyone has podium odds, TAKE HER!!! On top of that, I really like Logan as the dark horse. My book has her listed as the 5th best odds @+512. Her numbers suggest she is the second best here so I can't miss out on that play for a half unit. Howell (my fellow compatriot), as much as the fanboy in me wants to see her succeed, I just don't think she's worth the odds they're giving her. However, she has consistently place in podium finishes while coming up short for gold, so I see her as a good value to take a bronze medal. So my predictions for this event are as follows:

Gold: Kaya Turski
Silver: Devin Logan
Bronze: Dara Howell

My bets for this event are:

Turski to win gold +307 **2 Units**
Logan to win gold +512   0.5 Units
Howell to beat Herman -151
Turski to beat Howell -129
Logan to beat Howell +157
Logan to beat Herman +102

Good luck and any insights are always appreciated.

I forgot to add my women's curling bets for this evening:

Russia -1.5 +123 (Also get my vote for hottest team! Seriously! Watch this match just for the Russian hotties!
Russia/USA Under 12.5 -108
Canada -1.5 +109
Canada/Sweden Under 12.5 +116
Swiss -1.5 +114
Swiss/Denmark Under 12.5 -130
Japan +119
Japan/South Korea Under 12.5 -108

You may have noticed that I bet every game under. Every one of yesterday's games went under 12.5 and I don't see that changing today. The teams are still adjusting and trying to find their rhythym. The preliminaries are the opportunity to do that.  

Tiril Sjåstad Christiansen!...womens slopestyle!...maybe worth a look too...

She withdrew from the competition a week ago due to a knee injury.

my apologies...had it at bet365...hope they void that one since shes not competing.

GL on all plays

You have gotta hate when they do that! I noticed my book still had Maggie Voisin (world ranked number 2) up earlier today, even though she injured herself on Friday.

Wow! Turski missed the qualifying and will not compete in the final. I cannot believe it! With her out, I really like Logan even more, so I'm adding another half unit on her @ +452. I'm also going to play 1 unit on Howell @ +247. I'm in shock right now. Having Turski out of this final changes everything. Zimmerman missed out as well.

Everyone is hammering Howell down to +220... Logan is now a +624!! I'm adding another unit on her at that price!

Well that was an exciting slopestyle skiing final. My predictions were pretty close. Turski failing to get through qualifying hurt, and Logan came so close to hitting as a +624 dog, but had to settle for bronze. It's a good thing I put that unit on Howell to cover my bases. It didn't quite cover the 4 units I lost on Turski and Logan, but it softened the blow. Here's a recap of my day:

Turski to win gold +307 **2 Units**
Logan to win gold +512 0.5 Units / +462 0.5 units/ +624 1 Unit
Howell to win gold +247
Howell to beat Herman -151
Turski to beat Howell -129
Logan to beat Howell +157
Logan to beat Herman +102

Russia -1.5 +123
Russia/USA Under 12.5 -108
Canada -1.5 +109
Canada/Sweden Under 12.5 +116
Swiss -1.5 +114
Swiss/Denmark Under 12.5 -130
Japan +119
Japan/South Korea Under 12.5 -108

Everything said and done, I had a sub par day, going 6-9 -4.08 units. Here's what I still have pending:

Sara Takanashi (Women's ski jump) not to win gold +126 **2 UNIT**
Daniela Irashko-Stolz (Women's ski jump) to win gold +177  0.5 unitsDavis/White (Ice dancing) Not to win gold +173   
Charles Hamelin (500m Short track) to win gold +247

That's going to be it for me at the moment. I will be back later with more plays. To finish off, I just want to say that I hope Yuki Tsubota is going to be okay. That was a nasty fall she took today. Thoughts are with her.