August 10-12 lines/thoughts

25-16 ATS, second half.

10 days, more or less left of the regular season, all of the top 5 teams have big games on tap that will decide their seeding, many of them in the last two games, but first things first, they'll have to take care of business, sometimes against the lesser teams of the W.

Lines are my relative strength, NOT what I think the bookie will make them at....you'll be sure to disagree on a few of them, no worries.

Friday   

Sky        +9   Sun 182

Mercury -13   Fever 162

Sun have an away and home series against the Sky, it'll be a sprint up and down the court by both teams.  Sun have found their mojo and have the tiebreaker edge on the Sparks, but not on  the Mystics or the Dream.  If they win they will move into the 3rd seed with the Sparks with all home games remaining with the Lynx and Sparks their last two games of the season.

Saturday

Dream -9     Wings   174

Aces    -10    Fever   170

This is not an auto win for Atlanta as they could take a deep breath after getting by Sparks and find themselves in an early hole versus the Wings.  If the Wings got even an average game from someone besides Liz from outside, they could make things scary for a team that is expected to win.  The addition of Plaisance was very encouraging for the Wings,...she looked very good in her limited action versus the Sun and hit a couple of threes that could open things up for The  Monster inside.   

Aces could thrash the Fever by 30, taking a lot of frustration out on a crummy team off a game the night before that could end up  throwing in the towel.

Sunday

Liberty    +6      Dream    163

Sun        -14     Sky        178

Mercury  +3     Sparks    160

Lynx       -3      Storm    160

Storm still needs a combination of two wins or two Dream losses to clinch number one seed.  I would not be surprised if the Lynx beats them here and forces the Storm to win their two remaining games at home.  In my lost post I detailed how the Lynx and Sparks have performed abysmally this year after a win, so not much chance I'd bet on Minnesota to take down the top team in the W, despite the championship banners this team has.

Dream on a back-to-back at the Liberty....it was one game ago that the Liberty could've beaten the Sparks, plus with the Dream in a likely track meet the night before with Dallas, they won't be bringing their A game to New York....still New York has been so pathetic, they could stoop to new lows and lose and not cover versus the Dream.  Cashing a bet with the Liberty this year  has been more of relief than anything else.

It's a toss-up between the Wings or the Mercury on who the worst playing of all the playoffs team are.  Mercury should give the Sparks all they can handle, but they have been Fade City as of late on their home court and the Sparks usually respond well on the road and off a loss.  Phoenix needs to find a coach who can maximize their talent, they just

Correction:  A Sun win versus the Storm would move them into 4th place (not third) tied with the Sparks, but ahead on a tiebreaker.

Sunday

Mystics -9  Wings

Wings off a back-to-back....the Mystics could  wipeout for the Wings here

Well, so much for the Sun being a threat....once again a "must-win" team goes down in flames to a team that is totally out of it.

Early lines are up for Saturday, mine in parentheses.

Dream -6  (-9)    Wings 168'  (174)

Aces -11   (-11)   Fever 165'  (170)

Obviously, I am total disagreement with the Dream line....they have double revenge as Brutal pointed out and the Wings may or may not have Cambage.  The books are over valuing Angel's presence, or lack of it.  She brings good defense to the table, but very, very mediocre offense.  Scores should be higher for the Dream and they shouldn't be any less efficient.  Some posters feel she is essential to the Dream's playoff success I don't agree with that either.

Early lean to the OVER and the Dream if the lines are pretty close to what the BOL line is.  I'd be surprised if they posted a line until there is word on Cambage's status.

Aces have blown multiple chances to be in the playoff hunt with Wings free-falling, and have failed every time.  They ought to whoop ass on the Fever and take out some frustration in doing so.  I suppose they are still mathematically in it.,...but their chances are slim or none.

I like the Fever to get thrashed.

Here's something to ponder....away non-conference dogs on at least a two game losing streak with 1, 2 or 3 days of rest (Wings) have been 35-12 ATS (+5.60) and 20-27 straight up (-1.96), though this has been only 5-4 ATS in the months of August/September.  

If our team on the losing streak has won the two previous meetings between the teams (Wings) they have been 7-0 ATS (+11.64) and 5-2 straight up (+6.29), winning by an average score of 84.9-78.6. 

Gets me totally off my initial thoughts of taking the Dream and may even consider taking the Wings....this is a prime reason why it's important to run the data.

streak<-1 and AD and not C   and 4>rest>0  and playoffs=0  and total>160

Play:

1)  Aces -10'

Play:

2)  Wings +6, -105

1)  Dallas +6  loser 

2)  Aces -10' winner

Second half 26-17 ATS

Dallas cut it to 5 in the last minute and then fouled down 8 with 34 seconds left, which ended any possibility of a cover.  Plaisance played great for the Wings and Montgomery basically won it for the Dream as Hayes had a poor night.  We'll see what the Dream are  made of traveling to New York on no rest. 

Aces did what they needed to do....the Wings could very readily lose their last four games,...@Mystics with no rest, @Sun, Aces @home and away at the Storm, which could be a must-win for the Storm if they haven't clinched the number one seed.

Aces have Liberty @home, @Wings, Dream @home

The Wings have a tiebreaker advantage on the Aces, having beaten the twice in their two games so far, so the Aces will have to end up in front of the Wings to get the last spot.  This could come down to the last game IF the Aces could beat the Wings in Dallas.

Plays for Sunday:

1)  Sun/Sky UNDER 178'

2)  Lynx/Storm UNDER 162, +105

3)  Sparks UNDER 161

Late season conference games tend to go UNDER, and in August after game number 27, the O/U has been 26-52 O/U in conference going UNDER by about 4.4 points/game.  I'll ride the trend, even though scoring is way up in the W this year....I am pretty sure the Vegas linemakers are aware of this as well.

Once again the public bets the total up......I will in the future incorporate that into a betting rule that I will wait until close to game time to bet UNDERs, as I have lost a point or so value in my UNDERs wagers in the Lynx and the Sparks games.

1)  Sky/Sun UNDER 179'  winner

The game was never close to going OVER despite the pace of play.  The Sun are the ultimate tease...they look like world beaters one day and totally lose it the next.  They are a year or two away, if ever in having a realistic chance of being champs.  Obviously with a +2500 futures ticket on them and a +1667 futures ticket on the Storm, I would love it if those two teams could meet in the finals.  Sun would have to get a 3 seed to make  that possibility more than just pie in the sky, which means they'll have to win out and the Mystics would have to lose their last two games versus the Lynx and the Sparks, as the Sun would then have the tiebreaker over the Mystics.

Thanks INP.

1)  Sun UNDER winner

2)  Lynx UNDER winner

3)  Mercury UNDER loser

28-18 ATS second half.

Storm with their win only have to win one more game (or the Dream can lose one) to clinch top spot....they can do it with a win at home versus the Liberty and if they somehow were to lose to them, they could do so the last game at home versus the Wings.

The Dream hold the tiebreaker with Mystics with a 2-1 head-to-head record.

The Sun hold the tiebreaker with Sparks and also  the Mystics should the Mystics lose two of their last three and the Sun pull even.