Greetings all, opening thread for anyone wanting to share their plays and leanings, or any mouth-breather-hotpocket-eating trolls to snicker a line or two...
Good games on tap Friday night: PHX -3 @ CON 165.5 WAS +12.5 @ MIN 158 SEA +5 @ CHI 166 LA -6.5 @ DAL 166.5
All lines 365 a few hours ago...
Will have a proper look and share play(s) later, but that Sky line looks good... And Mystics a little bit too...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Greetings all, opening thread for anyone wanting to share their plays and leanings, or any mouth-breather-hotpocket-eating trolls to snicker a line or two...
Good games on tap Friday night: PHX -3 @ CON 165.5 WAS +12.5 @ MIN 158 SEA +5 @ CHI 166 LA -6.5 @ DAL 166.5
All lines 365 a few hours ago...
Will have a proper look and share play(s) later, but that Sky line looks good... And Mystics a little bit too...
Looking forward to the games tomorrow, as well as the plays of some of our leaders. JoeMoney has manned up, but his leading counterpart, Agila, a newbie, will hopefully introduce self and give the team here a heads up on upcoming plays. :)
My contest play is Sky -6 (was -5 intially, ugh)
Thoughts/leanings on other games...
Merc only laying 3 at a normally-formidable Sun but with an injury out? Sun are strong off a loss and at home, hard to play against, but the momentum the Merc are bringing means you can't play against them with only 3. Don't forget that to start the season, league GM consensus was that this team would take it all.
Given that the Mystics beat the Lynx on their last outing, and with the Lynx at home in current form, can't take the points. May make a play with some angles from those who know more than I do. But I now lean Lynx the line ("if it seems too high, it's that way for a reason" strategy, similar to the Sun laying 8.5 the other day).
Itching to lay the 5 with Sky hosting Storm...what I liked about this initially is simple momentum for a more experienced team, at home, against an inexperienced (and unpredictable) Storm team off a win and away. Storm are pretty damn good away. But here are a few dorky-non-statistical datapoints to back my contest play... 1. Sky haven't gone just two ATS covers this season; it's been 1 or more baby! Wait, not done... 2. Storm off a win have not covered anything less than a +DD Done! :D
Two head-case teams in the Sparks on B2B facing up on the Wings. Playing this game feels to me like Russian Roulette, no matter which side you play, so will be keen to hear others. If each wasn't so flat 1Q, I'd have played that. I feel like Sparks will relax a bit early on this one... but will the Sky come and fight? I wouldn't bet on it - they're PR'd at 10 for a reason.
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Looking forward to the games tomorrow, as well as the plays of some of our leaders. JoeMoney has manned up, but his leading counterpart, Agila, a newbie, will hopefully introduce self and give the team here a heads up on upcoming plays. :)
My contest play is Sky -6 (was -5 intially, ugh)
Thoughts/leanings on other games...
Merc only laying 3 at a normally-formidable Sun but with an injury out? Sun are strong off a loss and at home, hard to play against, but the momentum the Merc are bringing means you can't play against them with only 3. Don't forget that to start the season, league GM consensus was that this team would take it all.
Given that the Mystics beat the Lynx on their last outing, and with the Lynx at home in current form, can't take the points. May make a play with some angles from those who know more than I do. But I now lean Lynx the line ("if it seems too high, it's that way for a reason" strategy, similar to the Sun laying 8.5 the other day).
Itching to lay the 5 with Sky hosting Storm...what I liked about this initially is simple momentum for a more experienced team, at home, against an inexperienced (and unpredictable) Storm team off a win and away. Storm are pretty damn good away. But here are a few dorky-non-statistical datapoints to back my contest play... 1. Sky haven't gone just two ATS covers this season; it's been 1 or more baby! Wait, not done... 2. Storm off a win have not covered anything less than a +DD Done! :D
Two head-case teams in the Sparks on B2B facing up on the Wings. Playing this game feels to me like Russian Roulette, no matter which side you play, so will be keen to hear others. If each wasn't so flat 1Q, I'd have played that. I feel like Sparks will relax a bit early on this one... but will the Sky come and fight? I wouldn't bet on it - they're PR'd at 10 for a reason.
If you enjoyed this forum (meaning this thread, this brilliant contest) up until the Olympics (or even the first half of the season), and want it to continue, then act like it. "act" being the operative word. Each of us shapes how and whether it progresses. For better and for worse. What made/makes this thread special is that enough people put in effort to do more than simply post plays. And that keeps the real players posting plays even if they don't want to do more. It's a good - not ideal of course - mix. We all acknowledge that. And let's not forget - the forum/thread was SO good, that a really good capper in DMG was willing to do some really heavy lifting for us!!
I'm not going to let the leaders and good-guys from this group walk out on it easily. That group is defined as everyone who joined before me, haha! Aussie, Wagerman, Joe, Currie, Alex, and many others. This isn't me trying to keep you in for your picks. It's me, who respects the hell out of each of you, respectfully sharing my perspective. It's not right or wrong, and I completely respect your choices no matter what they are. You've earned that and much more. So peace no matter what.
Last I checked, we all love sports... we all love betting on sports... and we all love each others (or most of the others, haha) insights... and we're not contributing anymore because of...??? Booger-eater, mommy-boy-hotpocket eater??? Really???
We've had and have a really special thing going here. Even if it's easy to forget sometimes. It's also easy to forget that we're on Covers, which is like being on Twitter, which is a place where anyone can say what they want, anonymously. It's our choice, individually, whether and how we let that affect us. I'll say that part again - it's your choice, Mr./Ms. Joe/Jane, to let that affect you. :) Tom Brady
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PS... a lil PSA
If you enjoyed this forum (meaning this thread, this brilliant contest) up until the Olympics (or even the first half of the season), and want it to continue, then act like it. "act" being the operative word. Each of us shapes how and whether it progresses. For better and for worse. What made/makes this thread special is that enough people put in effort to do more than simply post plays. And that keeps the real players posting plays even if they don't want to do more. It's a good - not ideal of course - mix. We all acknowledge that. And let's not forget - the forum/thread was SO good, that a really good capper in DMG was willing to do some really heavy lifting for us!!
I'm not going to let the leaders and good-guys from this group walk out on it easily. That group is defined as everyone who joined before me, haha! Aussie, Wagerman, Joe, Currie, Alex, and many others. This isn't me trying to keep you in for your picks. It's me, who respects the hell out of each of you, respectfully sharing my perspective. It's not right or wrong, and I completely respect your choices no matter what they are. You've earned that and much more. So peace no matter what.
Last I checked, we all love sports... we all love betting on sports... and we all love each others (or most of the others, haha) insights... and we're not contributing anymore because of...??? Booger-eater, mommy-boy-hotpocket eater??? Really???
We've had and have a really special thing going here. Even if it's easy to forget sometimes. It's also easy to forget that we're on Covers, which is like being on Twitter, which is a place where anyone can say what they want, anonymously. It's our choice, individually, whether and how we let that affect us. I'll say that part again - it's your choice, Mr./Ms. Joe/Jane, to let that affect you. :) Tom Brady
I like the way the storm have been playing. They have young talent and have put together some good games of recent. The line in my book started at Sky-4.5 and is up to -6.5. Boyd, steward and bird have been balling. I like them at +6.5. Seattle play good first half ball, as the season progresses their second half has got better.
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I like the way the storm have been playing. They have young talent and have put together some good games of recent. The line in my book started at Sky-4.5 and is up to -6.5. Boyd, steward and bird have been balling. I like them at +6.5. Seattle play good first half ball, as the season progresses their second half has got better.
Storm D better than Wing and Dream D and those recent two were within earshot of Sky
Storm 2-1 since break w/quality win against Sparks so some momentum and confidence but couldn't last with Lynx in third quarter only so second tier Sky not overly threatening
Assume that they are working on league worst rebounding
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Storm +6.5
Storm trio > Stewart, Loyd & Bird are capable
Storm D better than Wing and Dream D and those recent two were within earshot of Sky
Storm 2-1 since break w/quality win against Sparks so some momentum and confidence but couldn't last with Lynx in third quarter only so second tier Sky not overly threatening
Assume that they are working on league worst rebounding
Hmm First game here is where I see real value PHO-CON at first glance this line should be a bit higher. But really CON. Playing well. Lost player now so they will be playing with added urgency tonite. PHO a bit overvalued now ( laugh if you like). They tried to give back the last game to IND But IND could not make anything. Both teams are also offensively challenged. Both teams play pretty good defensive with PHO being best in league IMHO. Plays CON+2 1H Med CON TT 80.5u PHO-CON 165u Large & CONTEST PLAY
WAS-MIN this is a line that is a bit too high but I won't touch given the Mystics creamed Lynx last game AND this is first tilt with Mystics at MIN. It could very well be a curb stomping affair. Total I lean over Plays None
SEA-CHI I am liking CHI here. Home. Playing well. I can't trust SEA in this spot but the problem here is I really can't trust CHI. I hate betting on this team. They have the worst coach in pro sports. Avoid Plays None
LAS-DAL. Line you think would be more and it really is not moving much. This makes me think that people know more than I do here. Something wrong with Sparkies. I don't see why though this line is not more though. Wings playing badly but I am making a contrarian play here. Because someone knows more than me. Plays DAL+7 small Brutaljoe in NYC
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Hmm First game here is where I see real value PHO-CON at first glance this line should be a bit higher. But really CON. Playing well. Lost player now so they will be playing with added urgency tonite. PHO a bit overvalued now ( laugh if you like). They tried to give back the last game to IND But IND could not make anything. Both teams are also offensively challenged. Both teams play pretty good defensive with PHO being best in league IMHO. Plays CON+2 1H Med CON TT 80.5u PHO-CON 165u Large & CONTEST PLAY
WAS-MIN this is a line that is a bit too high but I won't touch given the Mystics creamed Lynx last game AND this is first tilt with Mystics at MIN. It could very well be a curb stomping affair. Total I lean over Plays None
SEA-CHI I am liking CHI here. Home. Playing well. I can't trust SEA in this spot but the problem here is I really can't trust CHI. I hate betting on this team. They have the worst coach in pro sports. Avoid Plays None
LAS-DAL. Line you think would be more and it really is not moving much. This makes me think that people know more than I do here. Something wrong with Sparkies. I don't see why though this line is not more though. Wings playing badly but I am making a contrarian play here. Because someone knows more than me. Plays DAL+7 small Brutaljoe in NYC
No Erich. Wu and others just ain't posting. Seems there's a college football vibe around the forums. NFL coming. That's what I meant. Now that the pigskin is here........
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No Erich. Wu and others just ain't posting. Seems there's a college football vibe around the forums. NFL coming. That's what I meant. Now that the pigskin is here........
Yes unlucky there on Stars. I still thought it was the right play.
Gun to my head I take Liberty. I might be going today to the Garden. But I think this line is about right. PHO are a talented bunch and will give max effort today (they dont mostly) albeit b2b. I don't think I am touching it. Maybe second half Libs since fatigue could play a part with Merc
Total I lean under. Garden tough site lines for teams coming in. Toughest in WNBA since it is a huge arena with a deceiving backdrop. The total is kind of low though and Libs can score...just not yet off break. Line is about right . A little high maybe. But if it goes to 160+ then I might bite.
Probably no plays but those are my initial leans
brutaljoe in nyc
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Yes unlucky there on Stars. I still thought it was the right play.
Gun to my head I take Liberty. I might be going today to the Garden. But I think this line is about right. PHO are a talented bunch and will give max effort today (they dont mostly) albeit b2b. I don't think I am touching it. Maybe second half Libs since fatigue could play a part with Merc
Total I lean under. Garden tough site lines for teams coming in. Toughest in WNBA since it is a huge arena with a deceiving backdrop. The total is kind of low though and Libs can score...just not yet off break. Line is about right . A little high maybe. But if it goes to 160+ then I might bite.
Lib came through for me, fortunately. Wasn't really value on either side, but off a loss at home, Lib have shown consistency generally, so I counted on them. Merc are rising, but you can't go from Jets to Pats overnight. :D
Like a lot on Sunday.
Who'd a thunk Wings would be laying 2.5 v. Mystics at home. Yes, they played well against the Sparks. And you'd think that momentum carries into this game, which (to me) is the only explanation for the line. I'm going to play some on Mystics line, not a ton. 1H Mystics, too. I have the Wings as being faves 10 times (don't have line for opening game); they've covered 2. Won 4. Can't play their line on this one at normal odds.
Sky laying 12 at home on anyone off a win/non-cover makes no sense at all. So I'll put some on Sky -12. :D
Dream at home having to lay only 3.5 v. Storm. I respect the heck out of the Storm, as mentioned when I lost giving them 5.5 @ Sky (they lost by 4). Dream a better team at home, and on a 5+? ATS streak there. This line should also be -5.5 or greater, so playing this big.
Indi getting 9 in LA... been burned by late surges by Sparks too much to grab that. Am playing 1H Indi line tho.
Lynx laying 11 hosting Sun?? Only reason to hope-bet on laying that much with this Lynx team is that Sun are awful off wins and covers, especially home win then away dog. Not enough games since the O break for me to feel comfy either way on this one, but I'd lean Lynx.
Contest play: Dream -3.5
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Lib came through for me, fortunately. Wasn't really value on either side, but off a loss at home, Lib have shown consistency generally, so I counted on them. Merc are rising, but you can't go from Jets to Pats overnight. :D
Like a lot on Sunday.
Who'd a thunk Wings would be laying 2.5 v. Mystics at home. Yes, they played well against the Sparks. And you'd think that momentum carries into this game, which (to me) is the only explanation for the line. I'm going to play some on Mystics line, not a ton. 1H Mystics, too. I have the Wings as being faves 10 times (don't have line for opening game); they've covered 2. Won 4. Can't play their line on this one at normal odds.
Sky laying 12 at home on anyone off a win/non-cover makes no sense at all. So I'll put some on Sky -12. :D
Dream at home having to lay only 3.5 v. Storm. I respect the heck out of the Storm, as mentioned when I lost giving them 5.5 @ Sky (they lost by 4). Dream a better team at home, and on a 5+? ATS streak there. This line should also be -5.5 or greater, so playing this big.
Indi getting 9 in LA... been burned by late surges by Sparks too much to grab that. Am playing 1H Indi line tho.
Lynx laying 11 hosting Sun?? Only reason to hope-bet on laying that much with this Lynx team is that Sun are awful off wins and covers, especially home win then away dog. Not enough games since the O break for me to feel comfy either way on this one, but I'd lean Lynx.
Some real tasty games today fellas. Don't have a lot of time for write ups today but here is what I will play I am going on my instincts right now more than anything. I am hot as hell and why overthink now.
WAS-DAL. This I think is easy. DAL has not played up to potential but last game was coming on. WAS out west now. Line is going DAL way. I figured it would swing back to WAS but no. Take DAL-4. LARGE Total I feel is a bit short. 163o MEDIUM
SAS-CHI. wow -12. But I can see this covering. SAS will be horrible here on out. I just hate betting CHI games with that joke of a coach. I can't do it. The under actually looks somewhat tasty. But again not enough to play it. NO PLAYS
SEA-ATL Storm comes in to a unstable ATL squad that historically has been money at home and not away. Again an awful coach for ATL. and kind of favor SEA traveling while ATL sits fat cat like at home. Ultimately though ATL will prevail. Take DREAM -3.5. MEDIUM No play Total.
CON-MIN I mean Mystics may lay an egg here. God knows they dsometimes do especially first game on road but this is too many points. MIN not really blowing people out. And CON. Not as bad as Record ...and still fighting. PLAY CON +11 LARGE.
IND-LAS hmmm this total is too high on first glance 160 with a LAS squad that is tough to score on. IND 40 1Q was an outlier Last game. This again is an arena and the shots will not fall and God forbid anyone to go in to the paint against Sparkies and their defensive coach. But I also think this will be a grind fest not a shootout and I believe Fever will cover the 9 So PLAYS IND +9 MEDUM LAS TT 85.5-115 u. LARGE & CONTEST PLAY. ( I don't know if new system takes TT. If not then DAL -4 will be my CONTEST Play.
brutaljoe in NYC
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Some real tasty games today fellas. Don't have a lot of time for write ups today but here is what I will play I am going on my instincts right now more than anything. I am hot as hell and why overthink now.
WAS-DAL. This I think is easy. DAL has not played up to potential but last game was coming on. WAS out west now. Line is going DAL way. I figured it would swing back to WAS but no. Take DAL-4. LARGE Total I feel is a bit short. 163o MEDIUM
SAS-CHI. wow -12. But I can see this covering. SAS will be horrible here on out. I just hate betting CHI games with that joke of a coach. I can't do it. The under actually looks somewhat tasty. But again not enough to play it. NO PLAYS
SEA-ATL Storm comes in to a unstable ATL squad that historically has been money at home and not away. Again an awful coach for ATL. and kind of favor SEA traveling while ATL sits fat cat like at home. Ultimately though ATL will prevail. Take DREAM -3.5. MEDIUM No play Total.
CON-MIN I mean Mystics may lay an egg here. God knows they dsometimes do especially first game on road but this is too many points. MIN not really blowing people out. And CON. Not as bad as Record ...and still fighting. PLAY CON +11 LARGE.
IND-LAS hmmm this total is too high on first glance 160 with a LAS squad that is tough to score on. IND 40 1Q was an outlier Last game. This again is an arena and the shots will not fall and God forbid anyone to go in to the paint against Sparkies and their defensive coach. But I also think this will be a grind fest not a shootout and I believe Fever will cover the 9 So PLAYS IND +9 MEDUM LAS TT 85.5-115 u. LARGE & CONTEST PLAY. ( I don't know if new system takes TT. If not then DAL -4 will be my CONTEST Play.
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