Posted:
#1
The last 3 years, game 1 in the finals have played out as follows:
Game Final Line Money
'06 Det @ SA Det 77-69 (SA-5.5/144.5) Road Dog/Over
'07 Phx@ Det Det 108-100 (Det-2.5/178) Home Fav/Over
'08 Sac@ Det Det 95-71 (Det-4.5/136.5) Road Dog/Over
All 3 games went over. One flew over by 20 points, one by 30!
The over has stayed consistent, even with defensive teams in this situation. Phoenix and Detroit scored triple digits in this same spot 2 years ago. I'm feeling both teams hit the nineties tonight.
As far as the side, unlike other threads and opinions, the road team has the momentum here. Call it circumstancial, but this is a direct result of the WNBA playoff format. To this point, each team has played consecutive best of 3 game series. In those rounds, the home squad knows they have 1 shot in game 1. It is a must win. If the home squad loses, they are probably not getting out of the series. To drop game 1, then be forced to win 2 straight on the road is nearly impossible.
Then we welcome in the finals, which jumps to a 5 game series. A 2-2-1 setup where the "must win" factor drops considerably in the opener. Because of this mindset, Indiana is in a prime spot to steal one here.
I'm leaning to the roadies and the over.. Indy 93-90..
Good luck to everyone..
Mollydog
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