Goodnight Moon (Tuesday, May 30th 2023)

1-1 +2.9u

Obviously waiting on lines, but I’m pretty intrigued by Atlanta on Tuesday. Not only are they coming off a loss to a team that had lost 20 straight games prior, but they also catch Chicago in what could be a difficult spot. 
- 3rd game in 5 nights compared to Atlanta’s 3rd in 8 (same 1 day rest) 

- Double date with NYL starts on Friday at home but they have to travel to Atlanta first. Potential to overlook 

- Emotional win for Mabrey beating old team in last game? Let down? She seemed pretty inconsistent last year.

You could argue that Atlanta is also in a look ahead spot with the Aces penciled in for Friday but I think losing to the Fever changes that. This team has playoffs aspirations and now sits at 1-2 after losing to last year’s joke. Also, after hosting Chicago their schedule: vs LV, vs NYL, vs CON, @ NYL, @ CON.  They’d be lucky to come out of that gauntlet with 2 wins and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they lost all 5. If there are must wins this early in the season, this kind of feels like one for Atlanta. Should be fun to see former team mates Gray and Mabrey battle. Maybe no let down for Marina in that case. 

Line is out for this one.  Atlanta -1 with a total of 161.5.

@WNBASharp31

 Good looking out. I only see lines up at one of my books right now and that book is showing -1.5 and -125 ML. I would happily throw a couple units on that moneyline but I do expect bets to come in on Chicago as a dog so I’ll wait for a bit more value. 

Current lines I see for tomorrow’s games:

Sky@Dream -1.5 / 161.5

Fever@Sun -12.5 / 158.5

Lynx@Wings -5.5(-105) / 166.5

Liberty@Storm +14.5 / 161.5

Wrong way so far. Dream -2.5

Very confused as to the motion on this -- Chicago is far better than I expected so far and Dream are as bad if not worse.  I think if you're Chicago you know this is a must win for any kind of relevant seeding / any hope at the Commish Cup and you come to play.  Only thing I can think of is some sharps betting small to drive the line before pouring money in the other way?  I don't see any news about lineup changes for Sky.

I was offered +3 on Sky at DK and took it for 50% above my standard unit

Ya, needless to say I’m frustrated by the movement of this line. Should have pulled the trigger at -1.5 or -2.5. Never thought I’d see as high as -4 today. Back to -3.5 but I’m hoping for -3. 

@NevadaHotDice

 Chicago is 3-1 with 5 games against Fever/Sparks in June. I don’t see why they would consider this a must win or in any way match the desperation of a 1-2 team that just lost to the Fever. 

BOL

CHI@ATL:

Atlanta Dream -3 (-130) 3u 

Chicago’s one loss this season was by 2 at home to Washington who is much better than Atlanta but every team has down games and I am expecting this to be one for the Sky. Gimme the far more desperate team to win by 2 possessions. 

LL