Power ratings after 4 games

1) Mystics 100

2) Aces      98

3) Storm    98

4) Lynx      97

5) Sky       97

6) Sparks   95

7) Wings   95

8) Mercury 95

9) Fever     90

10) Dream 89

11) Sun     88

12) Liberty 87

Game 5 

Sky        -2 Wings   166

Mercury  -6 Dream  162

Storm    -10 Sun     163

Lynx      -10 Liberty  160

Mystics    -2 Aces     168

Sparks    -5 Fever    165

Indy,

#'s look good.  Thx for sharing!

okie

Big news for Minny is that they are about to getting some relief in the guard position. Amazingly Odyssey Sims is in her way to the bubble, will quarantine and then play. Reeve said around mid to late August. Sims gave birth to her child around April and everyone thought she would sit out the season buy maybe a pay cheque is something she needs 

Minnesota is a threat, because Reeve coaches her ass off and she's got The Horse in the middle, still going strong.

Gotta love a player that loves to shoot 2 foot shots.

If Sims gives them just average play, I'd put them equal first with the Mystics.

Thanks for the info.

I found a sportsbook that has early listed odds in Oz.....mine is brackets

Sky          -7' 171'           (-2  166)

Mercury   -6' 178'           (-6 162)

Storm      -9' 155'           (-10 163)

We'll see if these are what the openers are for the W among the other sportsbooks that subscribe to a line making service, or if this is some bookie putting out a rebel line.

One sportsbook out there has the Lynx at 28/1 to win the WNBA title, with the Sun at 6/1 and the Mercury at 9/1.

What a crazy world. 

We'll see how Sims looks and there might be a punt on the Lynx.

Offensive and Defensive efficiency rating by team....lowest number is the better rating.

                offense      defense

 Storm        101.9         92

Lynx          94.7           95.4

Aces          104            96.2

Sparks       97.4           96.8

Mystics     110.1          97

Sun           88.9           97.1

Sky          103.8          98.2

Wings      101.2         101.2

Liberty      87.6         106.8

Mercury   109.4         107

Fever      107.1         108.6

Dream      100          108.9

Yeah not sure where Sportsbet are getting their lines from Indy. They always post strange lines and then they adjust once the real lines come out. I am very inclined to take the Wings at +7.5 vs the Sky. Unless they know about a key injury that we don’t know about

Thinking along the same lines as you Aussie,...I used unibet.

Play:

1)  Dallas +8

A very good database play in the WNBA comes into play with the Wings in a good situation today.  I like Brian Agler, though I have some reservations about their black hole playing point guard.  I'd like to see her get her teammates more involved especially their rookie out of Oregon who can really play.

A favorite off a dog win  playing an opponent off a dog loss have been 44-69 ATS.  I have a couple of tighteners that ups the percentage considerably.

Using sportsdatabase.com

p:DW and op:DL and F and playoffs=0

I played this before the big sportsbooks put a line out, so it'll be interesting to see what their opening line on this game will be.

Another historical consideration.....

A team that is winless between game numbers 4 and 11 has been 9-2-1 against the spread as a dog when having the lesser per game margin.  If their opponent  has a winning percentage over 50%, this moves to 8-1-1 ATS.

AD and t:wins=0 and tA(margin)<oA(margin) and 4<game number<11 and oA(W)>.5

The Sun fall into this situation.

Another game to consider.....

Parameters:

1)  Team on two game winning streak exactly

2)  A favorite

3)  game number 5, 6, 7 or 8

9-22 ATS,....if our play against team has a winning percentage of >=50, the record moves to 4-14 ATS.

pp:W and p:W and F and ppp:L and 9>game number>4 and t:wins-t:losses

The Mercury fall into this category.

Mercury have only covered 45% of their first half of the season games in the last few years as favorites.

Dream have covered 56% of their first half of the season games as dogs (23-13 ATS of a loss) and the Wings have covered 57% of their games as dogs in the first half (43-31 ATS off a loss).

Plays:

1) Dream +7'

2) Wings +7, and +8 (double play)

Thanks for the good intel. 

Thanks for stopping by Navi.  

Betfair, a betting exchange looked at that sports betting population of about 80,000 people at the time...they found that 3,000 of them were winners or 3.75%.

Why should we believe them, because everyone knows sportsbooks are scoundrels who can't be trusted, right?

A betting exchange is different than a regular bookie, because they have guaranteed equal action on both sides of a game, unlike a bookmaker.  So if team A is the consensus -6 over team B, someone makes an offer for whatever amount on team A at -6, then some other bettor(s) will have to take the other side for that exact amount for the bet to be in play.  The betting exchange takes a commission between 2-5% from the winning bettor.  So, one pays much less in commissions and the betting operator has absolutely no risk because of unequal exposure in a game.  Matchbook in the past has charged a 2% commission and Betfair has charged 5%.

So, to illustrate the difference between exchange and bookmaker, team A with a betting exchange has a million dollars worth of action on, which of course then team B has the exact same amount of a million.  Team B bettors lose, so they lose a combined million on that bet.  Team A bettors are delirious that they won, and get paid 1 million minus the commission taken on winning wagers, say it's betfair and they take 5%, or 50,000.  That is 50,000 risk-free dollars....not bad eh?  In contrast Mister Bookmaker is sweating the game, because he has taken 600,000 on team B, and 400,000 worth of action on team A.  He loses 160,000 if team B wins.  Multiply this by 16 games that are going on in any NFL weekend or 60+ games in college american football, the biggest bet sport in the USA (and obviously soccer is the biggest bet sport world-wide), and if the bookmaker gets it wrong, he goes broke, or if he is managing it, he gets fired.

Normally, sportsbooks, hardly ever lose, because, of course 96+% of bettors lose.  However with unequal action comes pressure to bookmakers that they could theoretically lose if the public wins, or if a couple of big-time bettors win....which leads to them kicking winners out and not allowing their action.....which happens frequently.

It is flawed thinking on the sportsbooks' part, as the biggest and best sportsbook in the industry, Pinnacle, has the lowest commission and doesn't kick winners out.  I mean, come on, you have a 96% chance of winning and you are getting a commission as well, WHAT ARE SPORTSBOOKS THINKING BY KICKING SOMEONE OUT?

Anyway, a betting exchange doesn't have unequal action, think parimutuel  horse racing where the house gets 15-20% off the top, or a poker room where they collect a commission on every hand.  THEY DON'T CARE WHO WINS, BECAUSE THEY GET THEIR MONEY, GUARANTEED.

The only flaw in this system is that bets like teaser and parlays almost certainly can't be put into this system, as there wouldn't be enough both-way action to make it viable.

As I mentioned in my NFL forum thread, because this is a risk-free enterprise, some big player in the future is going to get involved in the betting exchange business in the USA,...someone like the USA government, (similar to powerball) or Apple or Google.

So, when a betting exchange puts out information, it is credible and believable.

I am looking at the Sun, a pathetic team this year.  Normally we win by fading the results of the past, as the only certainty in life is that things will change.

I ran a further query on them, similar to an earlier query I posted....here it is below.

D and t:wins=0 and game number>4 and oA(W)>=.5 and op:W

To break down the query language, we have an underdog that hasn't won a game after game number 4 against at least a 500 winning percentage team that has won their previous game.

Those teams have been 16-3-1 ATS, covering by an average of over 8 points/game.  The average line on the game has been 9.7 points.  They have also won straight up 7 out of 20 times.  What kind of return (ROI) could we calculate getting on taking our pathetic team to win straight up?  

The moneyline on the Suns today is approximately +375 on a point spread of +10', so we'll estimate that that a pointspread of 9.7 would be +350.

If our pathetic team wins straight up 35% of the time (7 out of 20 times they've won), we'll calculate like this...

.35 (the chance of winning multiplied by 3.5 (the moneyline payout) - .65 (the chance of losing) =.575 or 57.5% ROI.

Not a bad payout

Will I do it?....play the moneyline on the Sun?

Theory is fun sometimes, but real-word risking your cash is another story.

Not sure, yet what I will do.

Wings come through for me....had a chance to win it.  Alarie is a good player and should be starting.

They basically should give on the idea that Moriah Jefferson or Ndour should be playing....both  at least -10 for the game, whereas Alarie was +12 and Thornton was +17.

1)  Wings double play +7/8 winner

Adding:

3)  Sun +10'

2)  Dream +7

1)  Wings +8/7 winner

Had Dream 7' as my first post on the game said,....that said, why would you let a) Taurasi catch the ball at all in the last 2 minutes when you're down?....and then b)  why would you foul her? 

That is flat-out bad coaching.

1)  Wings +8/7 winner (double play)

2)  Dream +7' winner 

3)  Sun +10'

3)  Sun +10' loser

I don't think I've ever seen a team disintegrate as much as the Sun has from last year to now.  The Thomas women are basically useless.  You can't play two players that can't shoot 15 foot open shots at the same time, unless you've got 3 great shooters on the floor which they had last year in Jones, Stricklen and Williams.  Stricklen and Williams, by the way are looking pathetic this year for the Dream as well and they all could be out of the league within a couple of seasons.

Perhaps Alyssa Thomas and all of the Sun learned their lesson today, in that one can't let great shooters catch and shoot at the three point line, and you can't help your teammates out on dribble penetration and leave Stewart, Whitcomb and Clark sitting there waiting for an open 3 pointer in this day of modern basketball. The Storm made 11 threes either in transition or off dribble penetration.......that is good shooting and poor defense.

The Liberty without Sabrina are unbackable and now the Sun are too....I am not going to keep throwing money at that team waiting for them to cover eventually.

Still, all in all I'll take a 3-1 day.