So I looked at both aussieguy and brutal joes plays throughout the season.
What i notice was it seems these guys are the 2 best cappers clearly on this subforum right?
Now few questions for these guys.
1. Aussieguy- I noticed you post plays pretty close to gametime. I thought this was hard to follow but it make sense since well now you know what players are playing and which are not. Now for sides and totals, do you cap these numbers with a model? Example team is -6 and 152. Then your numbers would have say a team should be -7 and 156, so you bet the -6 and over?
2. Aussieguy- Do you bet same amount each game regardless? Like flat 1 unit? So you do this even if you have a bigger edge on one bet versus another? I always read you bet bigger if you have bigger edge in one bet vs another. Thoughts on that? I read flat betting is for ppl who don't know how much of an edge one has etc.
3. How far off a line does it take for you to bet something? Example total is 152. Does it need to be minimum 2 or 3 points off your numbers before you make it a play? Or it has to be like 5 points or more?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So I looked at both aussieguy and brutal joes plays throughout the season.
What i notice was it seems these guys are the 2 best cappers clearly on this subforum right?
Now few questions for these guys.
1. Aussieguy- I noticed you post plays pretty close to gametime. I thought this was hard to follow but it make sense since well now you know what players are playing and which are not. Now for sides and totals, do you cap these numbers with a model? Example team is -6 and 152. Then your numbers would have say a team should be -7 and 156, so you bet the -6 and over?
2. Aussieguy- Do you bet same amount each game regardless? Like flat 1 unit? So you do this even if you have a bigger edge on one bet versus another? I always read you bet bigger if you have bigger edge in one bet vs another. Thoughts on that? I read flat betting is for ppl who don't know how much of an edge one has etc.
3. How far off a line does it take for you to bet something? Example total is 152. Does it need to be minimum 2 or 3 points off your numbers before you make it a play? Or it has to be like 5 points or more?
1. I remember people said you were very good. When i saw your posts, all i saw was someone who had good record but very cocky... So i wanted to see if you backed it up and you sure did this season. But in all your plays, do you cap with numbers? Or are you a feel guy where you go okay line is -6 and 152 and you feel it should be higher etc. I notice you post up number predictions of what the odds should be. Are those based on feel or real modeling numbers. Like you calculate possessions or you just go with these teams play fast etc?
2. Do you watch these games? Do you watch it live? I ask this because i notice you posted a ton of 2nd half plays. Thus it would be hard to tail you unless someone is on the forum all the time and refreshing when halftime of the games. This is obviously tough for ppl as it would be checking your thread during halftime everygame. You seem to give insight on 2nd half so are you just looking at box score or you watching these games live when you do 2nd half?
3. You had a pretty damn good record. Now do you bet any other sports? So this sport you follow a lot right and probably only one? I never seen you post in any other subforum. I remember you said you bet 500 or 1000 per game which is 5 units or 10 units. So you always flat bet these amounts right? Regular play is 5 units.... big play is 10 units? I know you use words max play. But where do you bet these at? I assume 5dimes and bookmaker right and betonline? I noticed you bet tons of TT Overs and Unders and it seems 5dimes only book that does it? The other thing is do you think oddsmaker adjust to these things in wnba? I don't watch or follow this sport but i remember there was always a team you kept betting their 1st half TT Over and it went over at a ridiculous rate and you said keep betting the TT 1st Half Over for that team.
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Brutaljoe
1. I remember people said you were very good. When i saw your posts, all i saw was someone who had good record but very cocky... So i wanted to see if you backed it up and you sure did this season. But in all your plays, do you cap with numbers? Or are you a feel guy where you go okay line is -6 and 152 and you feel it should be higher etc. I notice you post up number predictions of what the odds should be. Are those based on feel or real modeling numbers. Like you calculate possessions or you just go with these teams play fast etc?
2. Do you watch these games? Do you watch it live? I ask this because i notice you posted a ton of 2nd half plays. Thus it would be hard to tail you unless someone is on the forum all the time and refreshing when halftime of the games. This is obviously tough for ppl as it would be checking your thread during halftime everygame. You seem to give insight on 2nd half so are you just looking at box score or you watching these games live when you do 2nd half?
3. You had a pretty damn good record. Now do you bet any other sports? So this sport you follow a lot right and probably only one? I never seen you post in any other subforum. I remember you said you bet 500 or 1000 per game which is 5 units or 10 units. So you always flat bet these amounts right? Regular play is 5 units.... big play is 10 units? I know you use words max play. But where do you bet these at? I assume 5dimes and bookmaker right and betonline? I noticed you bet tons of TT Overs and Unders and it seems 5dimes only book that does it? The other thing is do you think oddsmaker adjust to these things in wnba? I don't watch or follow this sport but i remember there was always a team you kept betting their 1st half TT Over and it went over at a ridiculous rate and you said keep betting the TT 1st Half Over for that team.
you took the time to write such an in-depth thing that I must respond.
Much appreciated.
It may take me awhile to get to you.
But a couple things first off.
Always cap the numbers before. Always.
Second this is all i bet on (mostly). Getting in to golf though. Others are too hard and it is very difficult to win.
there are certain tricks to wnba (one before all star break (Olympics this year) the dogs at +5 or less if winning 1H almost always win the game also the totals are lower first half of season. Also it seems that if a total goes over 1H it goes way over 2H. Second half of season things change. Totals go over. Dogs don't win. I don't know really why maybe teams are packing it in. But it does. I know this because of feel and checking lines etc. I have models I use but cannot find info on some stuff) you need to watch the games and no book cares about the 2H so if you get this and you know the game you have a great advantage. But I am sorry that others cannot get the bets for @H. I try but hard. It happens fast and this is where the advantage can lie. Team totals they juice more. Why? Because people like me can exploit it. (discuss more later) and I had a great year (it was SO good I have a pix on my phone to show degenerates at bars. No shame-77-39 66.4% last 116 plays! unheard of and I will never do that again. +$25,200 Never again. Over 400 plays and 57.4%! could happen again. but I think there may be others as good and better than me. Straight Wagers Indigo and there are others are right up there. Aussie is a class act and very good. Is he the best? ...not sure but we are all right up there.
I am cocky but most is tongue in cheek. But I thoroughly enjoy doing it and I think alot have fun with my irreference. Dont take me too seriously.
Yes you are correct on my betting amounts. I have my own books. Local guys in NYC.
More later.
Brutal Joe in NYC!!
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Hi Donny
you took the time to write such an in-depth thing that I must respond.
Much appreciated.
It may take me awhile to get to you.
But a couple things first off.
Always cap the numbers before. Always.
Second this is all i bet on (mostly). Getting in to golf though. Others are too hard and it is very difficult to win.
there are certain tricks to wnba (one before all star break (Olympics this year) the dogs at +5 or less if winning 1H almost always win the game also the totals are lower first half of season. Also it seems that if a total goes over 1H it goes way over 2H. Second half of season things change. Totals go over. Dogs don't win. I don't know really why maybe teams are packing it in. But it does. I know this because of feel and checking lines etc. I have models I use but cannot find info on some stuff) you need to watch the games and no book cares about the 2H so if you get this and you know the game you have a great advantage. But I am sorry that others cannot get the bets for @H. I try but hard. It happens fast and this is where the advantage can lie. Team totals they juice more. Why? Because people like me can exploit it. (discuss more later) and I had a great year (it was SO good I have a pix on my phone to show degenerates at bars. No shame-77-39 66.4% last 116 plays! unheard of and I will never do that again. +$25,200 Never again. Over 400 plays and 57.4%! could happen again. but I think there may be others as good and better than me. Straight Wagers Indigo and there are others are right up there. Aussie is a class act and very good. Is he the best? ...not sure but we are all right up there.
I am cocky but most is tongue in cheek. But I thoroughly enjoy doing it and I think alot have fun with my irreference. Dont take me too seriously.
Yes you are correct on my betting amounts. I have my own books. Local guys in NYC.
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