Saturday W

After starting out something like 15-3, I have now gone 2-4 the last couple of days....I suppose some regression was inevitable, but boy do I hate it.

Is it the new normal for the Liberty, Sun and Dream after very surprising performances last game?  I wouldn't have thought so, but I ran a query on how teams did that started out the season poorly and then won their first game after game 4.  They actually did well the following game, going 8-4 ATS as dogs versus an opponent that had won more than one game themselves, including going 8-2 ATS in games 5,  6 or 7, going 4-6 straight up.

Indigo lines, game 7

Wings   -2  164     Dream

Storm   -2  164     Mercury

Sky       -3' 160     Sun

Indigo

i would be shocked if CHI was only favored by 2 

brutal joe 

Here's a very interesting query that I touched on yesterday, and I didn't pay it too much attention unfortunately.  This query is at it's optimal time before game 8.

We are looking at home a team does that has been an underdog two straight games, BEFORE game, how have they done?

The answer is, "pretty darn good".

99-71 ATS (58%)...this ups to 69-39 ATS (63.9%) if their opponent has been favored at least once in the last couple of games.

D and game number < 8  and p:D and pp:D and (op:F or opp:F)

The Liberty and the Fever qualify in when they play in a couple of  days.

In my post in the one above this I mentioned about teams that won their first game of the season after game 4...how have they done.  Well, they've done well if they were dogs both games previously like the Liberty.  The Sun though was a favorite versus their game that they won versus the Wings, and those teams have only been 2-4-1 ATS.

In the case of the Liberty, teams that were a dog both of their prior two games, where they won the last one, have been 10-2 ATS in games number 5, 6 or 7, so we'll look at perhaps backing them when they play the Aces in a couple of days.

Shocking indeed....I've been shocked plenty lately, the Sky hails (pun intended) from Chicago, and the Storm is from Seattle....I know you know that, right?

There's still plenty of love going around for the Sun, as they're still a much higher favorite than Minnesota to win the title.  THAT is really shocking.  

And I just found a query that is 24-4 ATS, it'll be a top play on Sunday.

Yes 

shocked if only -3 my mistake. 

I think it will be like -6 for Sky 

Others  I agree with. 

But shocked yes from CON to NYL today 

I cannot figure for the life of me how that line moved 12 points and it was right on. What did I miss there and what did people see that moved it so much?

Wow, just fired the proof reader....sorry about the couple of posts with incoherent sentences.

We've got a couple of games coming up in the next 2 days that are pretty good teams playing against one another, as was the game between the Aces and the Sparks, the best game I've seen all season, also includes the NBA, which is almost unwatchable during the regular season.

When two teams have a positive per game scoring differential in the beginning of the season, this situation favors the dog IF the dog has the lesser differential.  If the lesser differential team is actually the favored team the results are almost exactly opposite.

So, to make this clearer, you have team A, that is outscoring their opponents by 6 points a game on average, and their present opponent team B is outscoring their opposition by an average  of 2 points/game.  We would expect team B to be the underdog, and when they are, they've been 42-28 ATS.

game number < 10 and tA(margin) > 0 and oA(margin) > 0 and tA(margin) <oA(margin) and D 

However, when team A has been the underdog, the underdog has been 12-16 ATS.

game number < 10 and tA(margin) > 0 and oA(margin) > 0 and tA(margin)>oA(margin) and D

We'll see who the underdog is these next couple of days when the Mercury play the Storm and the Sparks play the Lynx.

Teams' scoring differentials/game for the WNBA so far this season below.

Storm              7.00

Lynx                4.83

Mystics            5.40

Aces                6.83

Mercury           4.00

Sky                 2.17

Sparks            1.83

Fever             -4.80

Sun               -2.83

Wings           -4.83

Dream          -6.33

Liberty        -16.40

Yes, well, Indigo is a world unto himself and he is putting out lines based on his relevant strength of the teams.  He's not predicting what Mister Linemaker will decide to put out there.

As far as the never-seen-before line movement, you would wonder if someone had a player or referee on the payroll, or someone was the waitress serving an entire team vast amounts of  alcohol or "medication" hours before tipoff, who just happened to be the mistress of a Vegas gambling man.

my locals

-2 connect.

-6 Dallas

-8 seattle

I hope your local is family with the head bookmaker in all the world XScalesx, and that is what those lines will be for the next episode of As the World Turns (WNBA).,

If any guy has ever said that women are predictable (is there one?), he clearly has not seen the "W" in action.

If this keeps up, I'll have to be one of those guys that puts the name of two teams playing each other on pieces of paper and putting them each next to a dog bowl and then saying to your pet,.....

"Hey Spot, who's going to cover their game  tomorrow, we've got chicken (Wings) in this bowl and tuna (Dream) in this one."

Some dogs are clearly better handicappers than some of us and we don't have to pay the 1-900 WE-SELL-BOGUS-PICKS  phone fees when Spot makes his plays.

I do appreciate a capper that creates their own lines. Really like it indeed..

I have a feeling that Storm might be a bit higher, say -5 if Hartley is out again for the Mercury. Big player off the bench and although they nailed the Sky team the other night, Sky are also running on fumes, using mostly a 8-9 girl rotation. Mercury appear to be doing the same which I don't think is managebale for someone of DT's age.. Skylar is so Jekyll and Hyde and the Sky don't have a good centre unlike the Storm. Griner feasted the other night against the Sky due to that but I think she gets into trouble against the Storm

GL Indy

The lines have been soooo so off from mine, it's almost like the linemaker is doing a headfake on all the bettors.

I don't know about the fatigue...they're in the prime of their lives and I played 4 hours a day and was ready to go the next day.  They don't travel, and some teams are not even practicing.  All they have  do is eat, sleep and play ball, the absolutely perfect scenario for a ballplayer.

My view of what might transpire is that teams that had a good run last season might be fade material now through the rest of the season,...the Sun and the Mystics.  The Mystics have been very good, both last season and now this season until yesterday...but it doesn't seem that dominance lasts in most sports.  I'm not fading the Mystics after their last two terrible games, but they might struggle now going forward. 

Typically in the NFL, when injuries and fatigue set in, the teams that dominate early come back to earth and can be faded, unless they had a dominant season the previous season but lost in the playoffs...the mission team, like the Ravens will be in the NFL this year and the Chiefs were last year and the Lightning are this season in the NHL. 

The Aces and the Lynx look like the best teams....the Lynx can be gotten for +2000 still, after tomorrow I will play them to win the title.  I was sooo impressed by the Aces yesterday...I didn't know Jackie Young was as good as she was, and they are a better team than they were last year with Liz and Plum.  I would trade Liz  if she wants to come back next season as they'd get a haul for her as Aja seems to play much better when she is the alpha.  If the Aces were to get the Liz from her time in Dallas, ok, that'd be great, but she was only half as good as that last year for Dirty Bill.  Angel is probably a top 10 player still how will take the go-to shots in the end, and with Young and Aja and McBride, their skill level is very high, plus they play hard for Laimbeer...they should be the favorite, I could see them winning it unless Angel Mac got hurt.

As far as my lines being very different than the linemaker, so far this season it has been of benefit.  When there has been a big difference in the opening line to mine, the line almost always this season has been bet towards mine, which is an indicator that my lines are strong and can be predictive.

Pinnacle did a survey of their best bettors a few years ago, and found that one thing that stood out was that the market moved in the direction of their bets...if they took Team A at +5 and the closing line was +3', it was an indicator of a successful bettor, and  for the first time, this has been regularly occurring in posting my lines.  It helps to have them on paper ahead of time to compare, rather than to have them sitting in my brain somewhere that I may or may not be able to retrieve at the appropriate moment.  When the line moved sharply in the Wings game, it should have been a red flag and gotten me out of my Wings play, and I'll act to get out next time if something like that occurs again.

Another example is that I have found something in the NBA that looked very good with a 60% covering rate, and for the past three days I played the indicated team about 12 hours before game time.  In most cases the line moved the opposite way of my betting, and I lost.  That is an indication  that i have don't have an advantage, and the thing I have used to make picks has not held up since the bubble became a reality, so I am off NBA betting.  So, it is a lesson to know,

"if the line is moving towards my plays, I have an advantage, and if it is moving away from my plays, I don't and I am probably losing."

I am getting some comments about my lines, and to the credit of this forum, people are very good and civil about it.  People saying "that is not what the line will be". 

I am not in the Vegas line predicting business, I am in the business of evaluating the true relative value of the teams.  If the Storm were to open at, say, -7 tomorrow and my relative strength Indigo line is Storm -2, I'm taking the Mercury.

Another thing I will watch closely, is when teams are in a very good situation and  underperform, I expect them to overperform the next game to balance things out.  Performing poorly twice in a row in that situation is a red flag that there is some internal problems with the team or the coaching is poor, and then you can fade that team into the future, kind of like the Liberty and Fever have been with their prior coaches.

The one  present exception will be the Sky,...under no circumstances will I be taking the Sun after they played their best game of the season last game and the Sky played a stinker.  I have a strong lean to the Sky, and it will either be them or a no-play.

I'd love it if the Sky came a dog XScalesx's bookie  has them being.

I agree on LV winning it all right now 

Good work guys.  Hope you hit them today.  

The Aces?...well, hopefully brilliant minds think alike and as long as you don't hex my pick I am good with it.

However, we might be in for some shock therapy sessions upon looking at tomorrow's lines,  of which could  kill all of our genius cells that we have spent a lifetime nurturing.

BOL has posted lines, (mine in brackets),

Dream -1'    167'      (+2 164)   

Storm  -5    168       (+2 164)

Sun     -2'   166'      (+3' 160)

If you like surprises, just tune into the contiuing saga of "The W, the Linemaker and Me."

Ok, updated lines...perhaps sbrodds posted the Sun as -3, when it was really the Sky,...easy to get the Sun and Sky mixed up, eh?

Wings   -1 166'       (Wings -2 164)

Seattle -5 169        (Storm -2 164)

Sky      -3 166'       (Sky -3' 160)

Plays:

1)  Wings OVER 166'

I have a 23-3 OVER query based on two bad teams playing,  I expect the Wings to score at least 85 in this game after last game's debacle. Also two teams off a dog loss in in a game before the 11th, go over 60% of the time when playing each other.

2)  Sky -3

I expect a very good performance from the Sky after what happened last game.  The Sun had a much needed win last game, however, a team off at least a three game losing streak, then off a favorite win in the first 11 games of the season,  has only been 3-7-1 ATS, (1-11 SU) losing by an average of 10.27 points/game.

3)  Mercury UNDER 169

When two good teams (positive scoring differential) play early season weekend games, they have had a strong tendency to go UNDER.  Clark is a very good defender for the Storm who will try to contain Taurasi.  Without Bird, my opinion of Storm scoring is that it goes down 8 points/game, which is jsut observation, not stats based.

CANCELLING UNDER Storm 169'

Plays:

3)  Dream +3....going against the consensus (36% on the Dream) and line movement, my favorite indicator is prevalent in the next two games that is 100-64 ATS early season.

4)  Mercury +5 .....42% on the Mercury

1)  Dream/Wings OVER 166'

2)  Sky -3

Taking the Knights and the Lightning in the NHL.

Good fortune all.

1)  Dream loser

2)  Dream OVER loser

3) Mercury loser

4) Sky winner

no worries, shake it off this is all part of the journey Indigo...