Sunday Dubya Indigo lines

Every year in the W it seems, the clock strikes midnight August 1st, and those trends we noticed into June disappear into the night,  or reverse in August.  This year UNDERs started out the season of 2019 at 48-69 O/U, as the Adlers and the Hughes of the world fought for dominance.  Fatigue and injuries level the playing field and just tonight there was a parade to the foul line that put the game well OVER in the Mercury/Wings game.  This month OVERs are 13-4 going OVER by an average of 5 points/game.   In the month of May the average total set by Vegas was 159, and in August it's closer to 154.  The perception of the bookies and the public is that what has been happening with scoring in the W will continue to be that way,but right now the trend is reversing. 

Obviously, we know in life that the only static is that things will change....well, "times, they are a'changing", right before our eyes.  It is not actually that scoring is way up, but that the totals put out by Vegas have gone waaaay down.

Lines below are what I'd make them if Vegas was paying me some of their millions they make every year, NOT what I'd think the bookies will make them to be.

Liberty +2    Storm   157   

Hard to make a case for either team...the Storm are extremely well coached, but their defensive style typically works very well at home and gets you called for fouls on the road.  The Liberty has sunk into the abyss in two short years and can you look at yourself in the mirror after the game if you bet and then lose on the Liberty? 

Not me, even though I think Tina is great, the Liberty play like knuckleheads too long, in too many games.  Just goes to show that because you could play doesn't mean you can coach.  Brian Adler was a division III player (as was Jeff Van Gundy of the NBA).....they could/can coach and Katie should think of something else to do with herself.

Mystics -8  Lynx  162

Choleric coaches like Cheryl Reeve of the Lynx always perform well when their back is against the wall.....it's the "us versus the world" mentality, which is the mindset they have in a hostile arena.  The Lynx will get into the sports bras of the Mystics and the Mystics "pretty ball" won't look as pretty as it does against most teams.  Reeve also a supreme motivator, I expect the Lynx, who've overachieved all season, to make it a grind it out trench warfare type of game.  Kristi Tolliver and Della Donne are the queens of pretty ball, but I don't know, I love the type of game the Lynx plays much more.   Tolliver and DD still have too many disappearing act type of games for me to like a team similar to the Mystics to win the title, though they're the favorites.  LEAN Lynx and UNDER.

Sparks -6  Sky 164

Kudos to the coaching staff of the Sky, they're playing well despite inconsistency from Quigley and Deshields.  Vandersloot is still the best point guard in the W though by a country mile and who wouldn't love playing with her if you like to score?  She sets everyone up perfectly and is enough of an offensive threat to keep her defender honest.  The lunch pail part of the team though is Lavender and Dolson are being used perfectly, after initially being skeptical of the wisdom of having your two bigs sit out at the three point line for most of the game.  Dolson is almost as big of a whiner as Taurasi, which is saying something, but she gets every tough rebound and is a pain in the butt to the unfortunate woman that she guards on the defensive end.  Sparks look like the best team in the W and are +500, 3rd favorites to win the title.  Probably too much parity in the league for me to consider a futures play, but the Sky to win the title  are +6000??!!    That's pretty insane in a season when any of the top 6 could win it.

The Sparks would be my pick, but they'd probably have to win two against two teams with a home court advantage on them which is a very tough ask in the playoffs.  One could always hedge at the right strategic moment.

Aces -6  Sun 159

Liz is about 50% of what she was last year...would've loved to see how she performed if she had stayed in Dallas with Agler.  Whatever is going on with her and the relationship with Laimbeer isn't working, she looks lazy and pouty and she hardly ever gets the ball on offense.  Vegas has had a very difficult time covering games and it could worsen with the heart of the team injured, in Wilson.  Bill has finally grasped that Plum is not a WNBA starter (even though she still starts) and she is now sitting for vast amounts of time, including crunch time.  I'd play and start Sugar Rogers and have her on the floor for 30 minutes a game, but he must like her coming off the bench like a teammate he once had Vinnie Johnson, The Microwave,....sometimes coaches have blind spots or soft spots for players and this might be the case for Bill and his point guard.  I'd love to have a conversation with him and ask what exactly he sees in Plum.  She never gets her teammates easy shots and her supposed strength is shooting, but she can't shoot it either.  Vandersloot will give her a lesson on how to play pointguard.

The Sun look like Super Woman or Batgirl or whatever your favorite superheroine in spandex is, at home, and they turn into a fruitcake schizoid female Riddler on the road.  They cannot do anything right for about half of their road games, which happened last game versus the Lynx, when they were lucky to keep it within 40.  I'd make Courtney Williams and Jonquel Jones each get at least 15 shots apiece on the road, which they rarely get.  Kurt by in-large puts everyone in the right spot and they play good defense, but they need a bit of a ball hog to take over games in the last 5 minutes and their share the ball mentality hasn't worked on the road in his tenure with the Sun.  

The Sun are second favorites to win the title, and if the could get home court they'd probably win it, but even one series on the road in the playoffs would doom this team.

Apologize, Vandersloot ALREADY gave Plum a lesson,..now we'll see if she can work her magic against the Sparks.

For sure JD, I want you to apply for the head coaching position at the end of the season.....??

Plays:

1)  UNDER Mystics 160

2)  OVER Sparks 163’

3)  Aces -1’

4)  Lynx +9

I watched a game earlier this season where Kristi got kicked out of a game versus the Storm....they completely unraveled and  their offense got stuck in mud.  I liked the Lynx/UNDER plays anyway, but evidently she is questionable today.

Aces have home revenge versus the Sun when Ms. Hyde was on the Sun....now that she has turned into Dr. Jeckyl we like our chances for the Aces to get revenge.

Sky keep scoring seemingly at will... perhaps that will be limited somewhat if Lavender is out...we will shall see.

Mods if you’d delete my repeat post, much obliged.

Adding:

5)  Aces UNDER 160

Lol 99 It's not an impossibility I can guarantee you we would have more close out wins and a better D !

like your plays today. 

BOL