Sunday Indigo lines/observations

The home dog and UNDER trends that were golden at the start of the year have reversed themselves in August....regression to the mean at its finest.  Even Dallas is scoring.  Ogunbowale of Dallas is playing very well for a rookie and it's easy to see why she won games in college...she just takes over in the last 5 minutes, and the awesome thing about her is she goes at the basket and makes the refs call fouls which is a lost art in basketball these days.  I've never done a study on it, but just like turnover margin  is  correlated to pointspread success in football, I bet the team that takes it to the basket the most in a game covers 70% of the games.  She's gonna be a goldmine going forward for Wings backers and Agler is letting her do it, which shows his shrewdness as a coach....those coaches that have a "system" don't allow for someone like her to take all the shots and have the ball all the time when it's crunch time.  When you have a player like that, you break the rules and give it to her every time....the Wings are going nowhere this year, so let her make her rookie mistakes so that when they get some more players (Candace Parker next year?) and the games really count in the future she's had her indoctrination in end-of-game-time pro basketball already.  I enjoy watching her play immensely.

Indigo lines,....I am not predicting what Vegas is gonna put up, but using my own comparative strength lines.

Mystics -12    Liberty 168

Mystics showed they still miss Tolliver as they melted in the second half versus the Sky without a true point running things.  They'll put some whoopass on the poor Liberty in this one.  Is Tina Charles going to end her career in New York?  Are the Liberty going to get a coach?  Anyone who doesn't think a coach matters compare the Liberty now,  who have probably better talent, than two years ago when Dirty Bill was roaming the sidelines.  They are the dumbest team in the league and poor defensively...neither they nor the Dream can defend on-ball pick and rolls.  If I could get +200 I would strongly consider taking the Mystics to score >95 points.

Wings -5' Dream 158

Whatever happened to Breland and Williams for the Dream?  Along with Hayes for most of the year, they've all been missing in action.  The Dream have no competent point guard as Monique Bills and whoever else they run out can barely be bothered......they are lazy and are nowhere near their defensive level of last year.  I would make that team play two-on-two for 3 hours every practice and just learn how to play pick and roll basketball.  They can't shoot it either, although Hayes got me a pretty miraculous miracle cover by hitting some big threes a couple of games ago.  It's gonna be interesting to see what happens with Skylar Diggins next year, as she is a volume shooter just like Ogunowale and I don't see a very compatible relationship between those two unless they let them play with their own personal ball.  Brian will figure it out, I am sure and I'd guess that they might trade Skylar next season.

Sparks -4  Sun 160

Sun did it again at home looking like champs versus the Aces, but on the road they are often chumps.  Man, the Sparks are loaded with talent, and  now Parker and the younger Ogwumike getting shortened minutes now that Vadeeva  is back.  I don't get that Sydney Wiese sees anything but the end of the bench, but she is out there for extended minutes as well.  Chelsea Gray is my favorite W player as she makes the tough shots at the end of the game for the Sparks...she is their closer.  Still, there's no dominant team like the Storm last year and although I think the Spark have the most talent, I could see a team with a shrewd coach knocking 'em out, like Dirty Bill's Aces.

Mercury -5 Sky 158

CVS just outsmarts everyone and gets uncontested layups all the time.  Quigley having what seems to be a down year, which is a shame right when the Sky seem to be ascending.  I would love to see Diamond develop into a superstar, but she and Jewell Lloyd are in the class of looking great, but having lackluster results for how beautiful their games are.  She can't really do anything but shoot, and her shot selection is awful and she'll never be a high percentage shooter like Quigley has been, because a high percentage of her shots are poor percentage shots.

Lynx +2  Aces  158

This will be a physical game and Bill just keeps on bringing heavy, wet  bodies off the bench as the game progresses.....he tries to wear down the other team.  The Aces are the opposite of the Sun....they play very well on the road, but have trouble covering at home.  I'm leaning strongly toward the Aces in this one off their tough road loss versus the Sun.

Storm -10  Fever 155

Storm's system is built for crushing a carefree team like the Fever.  If Dupree is out, this could be a 30 point game.  Candace Dupree is probably the most valuable player to her team in the WNBA.  Yeah, the Fever can really shoot it on some nights, but by now I've been cured of wanting to put money on the Fever, Dream or the Liberty....this only after my wallet has gotten lighter before I got the cure. 

Plays:

1)  Wings -5

2)  Sparks -3’

3)  Storm -9

Adding:

4)  Aces -3'

to.....

3)  Storm -9

2)  Sparks -3'

1)  Wings -5

best of luck indigo