Thursday pre-lines

Another crazy night in the W....the Sky lost another unloseable game,...we'll keep sharp objects away from them.....I have decided to save the Chicago franchise and apply for the head coaching job, and have the ball in Vanderloot's hands at the end of the game.  Subsequently we'll win those games we're up 10 points in the 4th and then we'll all smoke victory cigars and we'll all party together in the hot tub I'll insist they put in the locker room

Sky management you can friend  me here on covers and we'll discuss terms.

Otherwise, I will be forced to continue my billionaire life as a professional sports bettor.

New York +2  Vegas 165

Once again Vegas loses a game despite having by far the best frontline talent in the league.  They are the Vegas Potentialities....however, we all know that doesn't often get the money.

Mercury -4'   Sky  163

Is Parker going to play?  Often teams that play abysmally have a breakthrough on the road,.......yeah, that's the ticket!

Sparks -10  Fever 163

Fever actually giving a good account of themselves in Seattle

Bucks open as 4.5 point away dogs versus the Nets.  The only two teams that have a chance against the Nets are the Bucks or the Clippers and I'd make the Nets -250 to win against either team.

Last season in round 2 of the playoffs home teams went 7-16 ATS and UNDERs went 17-4 ATS.  Don't be surprised if UNDERs  dominate again as totals prices are inflated and only the good defensive teams besides possibly Portland will have survived.

The 76ers have no chance, and they could lose to the 4 or 5 seed in the next round, most likely the Hawks.  Hurts them a lot that Simmons can't shoot and they'll have to consider taking him out at the five minute mark of a close game until the two minute barrier is passed so he isn't deliberately put at the one. 

Of course Luka and Giannis are terrible from the line as well, Giannis is like the modern day reincarnation of Wilt Chamberlain....awesome physical tools, dominates games, and then totally carks it at the line.

Now if we could just get Russell Westbrook to just shoot layups the Wiz would be 10 points/game better than what they presently are....they should play the Sixers tough tomorrow.

In the NBA playoffs, teams in game five  losing the series one game to three in round one, the home team has been 14-7 ATS, 19-2 atraight up (+10.60).  

Fourth seeds in this situation have gone 7-1 ats, and straight up, with average game differential of +10.62 and an against the spread differential average of +5.92.......Knicks

In the NBA playoffs,  home favorites in series game 5 that are tied 2 games apiece have been 26-20 ATS.....10-4 ATS when the total has been greater than 200.

However 4th seeded teams have 3-8 ATS, 8-3 straight up in this scenario and 1-3 ATS when the total is greater than 200.

This fits the Clippers today, and initially I strongly wanted to back the Clips and now it is looking likely based on this information that I wlll pass the game.

Home favorites in round 2, series game 1 have been 16-13 as home favorites if the game total has been greater than 200, and the second seed has been 8-6 ATS.

If their opponent is off a sweep in round one, this has been 1-3 ATS and straight up.

Home favorites in round 2 off a win in five games  have been 13-8 ATS, 8-2 ATS if they are the 2 seed......Nets

Second seeds and to a lesser extend 3 seeds usually perform much better against the spread than 1 seeds in the NBA playoffs....witness this season we have the Suns and Nets at 7-3 ats combined and the number one seeds Sixers and Jazz average ats differential is much inferior to the second seeds this season.

On gambling forums, people ask, where is the money going?   What teams are attracting the cash?

The short answer is, look at where the line of pinnacle sportsbook is moving.  

Pinnacle has the best odds and the highest limits of any sportsbook, so it attracts the smart money and smart people figure out how to get their money into that sportsbook.

The line of the Bucks/Nets has moved from 4.5 to 3.5 in variance to the other inferior, less smart, greedier sportsbooks of the world.

The smart money is on the Bucks in game 1 of their conference semifinal series.

Indigo:

NHL: Jets and Knights

NBA Wizards, I like the Knicks since its the 4-5 matchup but the Knicks are on my do not disturb list. 

Thanks for your learned opinion Spotty.

Getting back to the seeding in the NBA playoffs conversation.....

Round one 20 year performance by seeding.

seed         W/L covering %         average covering differential

1              104-89 ats   53.9%                     0.82

2              122-75 ats   61.9%                     2.44

3              113-100 ats 53.1%                     0.93

4                99-115 ats 46.3%                    -0.76 

They say getting that fourth win in a playoff series is the hardest.....Western conference seeded  teams round 1 with three wins in their series and their opponent has less than 3 wins.....

Seed       ATS record

1              10-9 ats

2              11-6 ats

3               4-12 ats

4               3-8 ats

5               4-10 ats

6               5-3 ats

7               1-4 ats

8               3-1 ats

Also, teams in the first four games of their round 1 series in the Western Conference have had a 49-72 ATS record with a lead in their series, so a 1-0, or 2-1 series record.

good stuff as always indigo .......and all for FREE!!!!   lol

Lines are out.....Vegas' to the left, mine to the right.

1)  Liberty +6  170             +2 165     

2)  Mercury -1' 164             -4' 163

3)  Sparks -7 162               -10 163

Plays:

1)  Aces -6 

2)  Aces UNDER 170 (no way Bill lets the Aces run and gun off a loss, they'll defend the Liberty's three ball game and shoot only 10 themselves)

3)  Mercury UNDER 164 (no way DeShields shoots like she did last game)

4)  Sparks -7  (Derek is a great homer off a loss)

5)  Sparks OVER 162' (the Fever's last UNDER as an away dog was an anomaly)

Dolson and Quigley playing versus the Sky....they have to be better than what they've been without them, I don't care how rusty they are.  Maybe Quigley gets 30, but Dolson's defense is very, very good, and Griner will hang around the 3 point line all game trying to avoid Dolson's sharp as razor blades elbows under the hoop.  And until the last 90 seconds of last game Diamond Deshields tried very hard to blind us to the fact that she is a terrible player, who can once-in-a great-white get very hot from the floor, before sinking into the morass of  laziness and brain fog to cost the Sky the game.  She ain't touching the ball the last 90 seconds the rest of the season.

Adding:

6) Sky +108

As far as the Ogwumike sisters being out,...they are plodders who want a grind-it-out....if they're out, the rest of team and LA as a city gets what it wants, which is a showtime, run n' gun game.  

The Fever have some shooters and LA's perimeter defense is in no-way comparable to the Storm's.  

First team to hit 90 wins.

Mercury have the Sky right where they want them....down eight with about 5 minutes to go....can the Sky blow it for the third straight game?

now a tie game with 37 seconds left....Deshields misses a layup with 24 seconds left......Mercury can go for the win with the ball in the last 20 seconds......smh.

It's looking like a 3-3 day....Sky couldn't close it out.