Tuesday W relative strength lines

Sky snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  Lynx had a very unlikely win.  Lynx will be fine going forward, though with someone like Dontas starting, they'll never be upper echelon.  Claredon looked excellent for the Lynx and will help the Lynx going forward.

The Chicago Vandersloots are unbackable I've found out....besides Copper, who is average, the rest of the team is abysmal.  They need to sit Deshields at the end of the a very long bench and never let her play another game for them.

Sykes made a huge difference for the Sparks....perhaps one reason the Dream haven't won is that they can't hold onto their valuable players.  Ogumeke is now just an average player for the Sparks.

I'm putting out MY lines....you'll be sure to disagree with at least some of them, as will the linemakers....it's like Christopher Cross once sang...."It's the Nature of the Game."

1)  Sun -3   Aces 162      

Curt can coach and I feel Jonquel Jones is better than either of the two Vegas bigs....still, teams off a heartbreaker on the road tend to have a bad game next as home favorites. If the Sun came a dog, I would be interested in the Sun.  Vegas just doesn't excite me, they should be much better than what they produce and it has been that way for a couple of years.

2)  Wings +3 Sparks 162

Losing Brian Agler will haunt the Wings as there is a HUGE dropoff with Vickie coaching this team.  Mabrey is a fine guard and perhaps when the Wings get a couple of the forwards back things will improve with them.  Derek has performed badly on the road off a win...this game looks unplayable to me.

3)  Sky +3 Mercury 164

Pretty doubtful I'd be interested in this game, when Quigley and Parker come back, then ok, I might be buying. Dolson is also a very underrated  though she's the dirtiest player in the league.

4)  Storm -14 Fever 163

Fever might win 5 games this season.  Candace Dupree is a valuable, smart player and now she's not playing for your team Fever, what were you thinking?

And now an NBA trend.....

Since 2015, home dogs in the Eastern conference have been 5-29 ATS in the first round (17-21 ATS in the West).

Home favorites in the East have been 54-30 ATS and in the West its been 45-42 ATS.

Public favorites have been very, very good so far....I don't expect that to continue in round 2 as bookies have a habit of making money at the end of the day.

Back to the WNBA......I know that the conference format has been scrapped...however teams from the East have shown a tendency to not perform well as home favorites early in the year before game number 12.

This is, at least to me an interesting trend.

Home eastern conference favorites that will be dogs their next game have been 42-72 ATS.

Home eastern conference favorites that will be favorites their next game have been 56-44 ATS

Now of course it requires us to make predictions of future lines...we can guess that a team that will be a dog is not an upper echelon team, but that is partially not correct....teams below 500 is basically break even.

East teams that have a record above 500 that are home favorites and will be dogs next game have been 14-34 ATS.

If we wish to be less ambiguous let's break down home teams do at home in the beginning of the season who are on the road next game.

Home eastern conference favorites who will be on the road next game have been 49-65 ATS

Home eastern conference dogs who will be on the road next game have been 36-36 ATS

Home western conference favorites that will be on the road next game have been 70-55 ATS

Home western conference dogs that will be on the road next game have been 28-20 ATS

The power has been in the western conference with the Mercury, Storm, Lynx and Sparks sharing the titles.  The Storm is the power this year in the west and those other teams are not upper crust teams anymore.

Defensive efficiency ratings dictate performance in the W.

Team rankings listed below with the lower number meaning effective defensive prowess for the season to date.  Surprisingly, the Sky is number one, which bodes well for them, and hopefully those in the forum, as their results this season have not matched how well they have played defensively.

1)  Sky 92.9

2)  Aces 94.7

3)  Sun 95.2

4)  Sparks 96.2

5)  Liberty 98

6)  Dream 100.4  didn't realize the Dream and Liberty were doing this well defensively

7)  Lynx 99.5

8)  Storm 100  Clark and Howard gone must be negatively affecting the Storm defensively

9)  Mystics 100.8

10) Mercury 103.4  When you have a 6 foot 8 post player and you are ranked at the bottom something is really wrong

11)  Wings 106.7

12)  Fever 109.4

In the NBA....

1)  Series game 5 in round 1

2)  7 or 8 seed on the road

3)  Those 7/8 seeds are have won 2 or 3 games  in the series so far, so they are either up 3-1, or tied 2-2

Those teams have been 6-20 ATS, 2-24 straight up losing by an average of over 12 points/game..... Lakers

If in game 5, if the 6th, 7th, or 8th seed have had a positive ATS points differential in the four game series to date, they have been 20-7 to OVER in game 5......Trailblazers OVER

playoffs = 1 and round = 1 and series game = 5 and A and seed>5 and series wins>1 and tS(ats margin, N=4)>5

Nice read Indigo and nice to see you posting again. Unfortunately looks like Mr Meyer is no longer updating the WNBA database which is a shame. I am guessing that means the CFL won’t be either as killersports is now only showing MLB, NBA and NFL. Would love to chime in and help them maintain the database but they don’t appear to be replying to anyone on those Google groups. 

line is out with TAB for the Sun/Aces game. Appears to be Sun -1.

The Aces expect Plum back for this game after her 3x3 tournament win. Sun look healthy apart from Alyssa. See how this game goes after Curt called Cambage 300 pounds last week. I would really think to see if Liz goes off like we all know she can. Laimbeer loves a fight going back to his playing days so I expect him to somehow fire up Liz for this contest 

Good read, Indigo.

I just did my handicapping- I'll give you what I got.

Conn -2.5 159 This is with Plum out. Don't know if that would make a huge difference. Aces blew out Indiana the past 2 games, but that doesn't really do anything more me. They are as bad this year as any of the past few years. 

Chicago -1 160. They say CP3 is questionable, so I am going to assume she is gonna be playing.  If things change, it would change my line.  CP3 is the workhorse and a good defender.  Takes the load of of Diamond and Copper.  I agree with you with Dolson.  Very underrated.  Always get that rebound or bucket down the stretch when you need it.  I am probably higher on the mercury now too, since DT is out. 

Dallas -2 163.5.  The 2 LA wins against a beat up sky isn't huge to me.  Mabrey is on fire.  Gray still being out hurts Dallas, but it is so hard to back Derek Fisher. 

Seattle -11 164. The worst team vs maybe the best team.  Could be -20 or -7, still not sure if I would play this game. Seattle always seems let opposing teams score a lot in the 4th when they are up big.

Also, my rankings as of right now:

Seattle

Conn

Vegas

Washington

Phx

ATL (been high on ATL all year)

Chicago ( with parker ?)

Minn

Dallas

NY (with Howard out. I feel like a lot of people are high on the Libs, I am not. I basically am negating all wins vs Indiana.)

LA

Indy

Thanks for chiming in mates (trying to sound Australian).....I value your opinions.

I'd really like to watch the Sky when they are fully healthy.

Been watching the NBA playoffs and the ice hockey playoffs, which I haven't been able to for the most part for over 20 years.  The skill level is off the charts.  Won a couple of bets on the Canadians and the UNDER tonight.

As far as the NBA playoffs go, I don't think the Lakers have long to live this year.....as Barkley has said, you just can't suit up after not playing for over a month and think that you'll be in shape enough to excel or to avoid injuries.  Now, James might go off tomorrow, but I think he is about at the end of his line and his power forward teammate Anthony Davis may attempt to play tomorrow, which will be a net negative for the Lakers....they'd be better off without him with his injury.

The three guys on the Nets are the most prolific players I've ever seen on one team, but they can be mentally lazy, so we'll see how it progresses for them...no one in the east will touch them in my opinion....Giannis will have make his free throws and average 40 for the Bucks to have a chance.

The Jokic/Dame matchup I am really looking forward to tomorrow, the two most valuable players in the league to their respective teams in my opinion.

I'd really like to watch the Sky when they are fully healthy.

Lines are out........Mine to the right

Sun      -1'  160                   -3  162

Wings +3'   167'                 +3  162

Sky     -1'   164'                 +3  164

Storm-14'   167'                -14  163

Wings beat the Sparks on their homecourt opening game by 20+.  Wings have been competitive for the most part every game.

Plays:

1)  Sparks UNDER 167'

2)  Sky -1

3)  Sky OVER 163'

Good fortune all.

I'm taking the Suns, Knicks, Nets and Clippers in the NBA, and the Jets and the UNDER in the Boston @NYI games.

Adding:

4)  Wings -2

1)  Sky -1

2)  Sky OVER 163'

3)  Wings UNDER 167'

Taking Grizzlies +9'ish in game 5 versus Jazz

GL tonight Indigo

I mentioned this in an earlier thread....fading baseball teams that have a bad bullpen might just be the golden goose, and playing on teams with a good bullpen also looks very promising.

I used covers' bullpen ERA stats.

Fading the bottom 8 teams, using 100 as a standard unit:

1)  Rockies  +710

2)  Reds +157   

3)  Tigers -232   

4)  Angels +531 

5)  Diamondbacks +1201 

6)  Phillies +138 

 7)  Twins +1435       

 8)  Braves +616

Playing ON the top 8 teams in bullpen ERA for the season to date: 

1)  Padres +437   

2)  Cubs +735     

3)  Yankees -1046   

4) Indians +285   

5)  Rays +1327

6)  Marlins -20         

7)  Mets -184     

8)  Blue Jays +255

That is +65 units and we are only two months into the season.

Also, keep in mind that the bullpen return in the post just above is even better than what I've noted, as I didn't filter out two top bullpen teams playing each other or two bottom bullpen teams playing each other.

Obviously, bullpen stats are fluid and there is no information site that I know that keeps daily bullpen stats to verify top/bottom 8 status every day to research this to the nth degree.

Wow! whatever Kia Nurse has been eating, I want some of it!

She is looking like a real ballplayer for the first time as a pro, which Phoenix will need if Griner continues to sleepwalk through her career.

Azura Stevens looks fat and out of shape, in total opposition to the hardbody she used to be in Dallas.

And Deshields looks like a Jeckyl and Hyde imitation...she looks like Mr. or Ms. Hyde tonight, except for her boneheaded decision to shoot  a very difficult shot with more than 10 seconds on the shot clock with less than 30 seconds left in the game

1)  Wings winner

2)  Wings UNDER winner

3)  Sky  loser.....you screw around and you play not to lose, and you lose.

4)  Sky OVER winner 

3-1 today, 7-5 for the season.

 Nice night, Indigo. Sky are lost right now. No idea who they are without Parker and Quigley.