I’ve been particularly down on the Mystics after failing to cover two points for me on a teaser against the Fever in the front end of a two-game series in Indiana. Washington did manage to bounce back in the second game and won by 16 points.
However, the fact that the Mystics lost the first game by 12 points still leaves me sour after watching them dismantle the 5-1 New York Liberty 101-72 just three games ago. Heck, I’m not sure if Mystics head coach Mike Thibault knows which team will show up from one game to another.
That type of uncertainty puts bettors in a precarious situation, and I’m unwilling to back a side in this matchup.
However, my model shows a significant edge on the under, which opened as high as 161.5, and it’s already moving in my direction. But, given with the Mystics’ unpredictability, it wouldn’t surprise me if they get hot shooting the ball. After all, Washington ranks third in 3-pointers made per game (9.2).
I have a much better read on the Sun, who might be the most consistent team in the league, given that they’re ranked first in both offensive (106.0) and defensive (93.1) ratings.
As far as the tempo is concerned, both teams are right around the same pace with roughly 81 possessions per game. That’s where efficiency will come into play, particularly for a Mystics team ranked ninth with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 44.6%.
Lean: Under 159.5 at FanDuel. I wouldn’t play this any lower than 156. / By M.Arinse
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I’ve been particularly down on the Mystics after failing to cover two points for me on a teaser against the Fever in the front end of a two-game series in Indiana. Washington did manage to bounce back in the second game and won by 16 points.
However, the fact that the Mystics lost the first game by 12 points still leaves me sour after watching them dismantle the 5-1 New York Liberty 101-72 just three games ago. Heck, I’m not sure if Mystics head coach Mike Thibault knows which team will show up from one game to another.
That type of uncertainty puts bettors in a precarious situation, and I’m unwilling to back a side in this matchup.
However, my model shows a significant edge on the under, which opened as high as 161.5, and it’s already moving in my direction. But, given with the Mystics’ unpredictability, it wouldn’t surprise me if they get hot shooting the ball. After all, Washington ranks third in 3-pointers made per game (9.2).
I have a much better read on the Sun, who might be the most consistent team in the league, given that they’re ranked first in both offensive (106.0) and defensive (93.1) ratings.
As far as the tempo is concerned, both teams are right around the same pace with roughly 81 possessions per game. That’s where efficiency will come into play, particularly for a Mystics team ranked ninth with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 44.6%.
Lean: Under 159.5 at FanDuel. I wouldn’t play this any lower than 156. / By M.Arinse
The Los Angeles Sparks have had one of the more interesting starts to the season. Eight of the 12 teams in the league have played at least five games, two others have played four, and the Sparks have only played two.
I’m not exactly sure why they’ve played much fewer games, but it gives us a smaller sample size than the other teams. Nonetheless, I have the Sparks no higher than 11th in my power rankings after factoring in their offseason moves — or lack thereof.
Not having Candace Parker available is a massive loss for the Sparks, and they come into this game against the Sky with a net margin of -27.25 points. I’m sure this is a game that Candace Parker would have loved to play in if she wasn’t injured.
However, I still expect her to be a veteran presence on the bench and continue to coach up her teammates.
Pick: Sky -1.5 is readily available in the market. I would play this up to -3./ By M.Arinse
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The Los Angeles Sparks have had one of the more interesting starts to the season. Eight of the 12 teams in the league have played at least five games, two others have played four, and the Sparks have only played two.
I’m not exactly sure why they’ve played much fewer games, but it gives us a smaller sample size than the other teams. Nonetheless, I have the Sparks no higher than 11th in my power rankings after factoring in their offseason moves — or lack thereof.
Not having Candace Parker available is a massive loss for the Sparks, and they come into this game against the Sky with a net margin of -27.25 points. I’m sure this is a game that Candace Parker would have loved to play in if she wasn’t injured.
However, I still expect her to be a veteran presence on the bench and continue to coach up her teammates.
Pick: Sky -1.5 is readily available in the market. I would play this up to -3./ By M.Arinse
I’ve been looking forward to Napheesa Collier’s return to the Lynx as she emerged as one of the best players last year in the “wubble” with 16.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.3 APG.
Minnesota has really missed her on the court, especially given the team’s disappointing 0-3 start. I’m not sure that the Lynx can defeat the Storm in Collier’s first game back, but I am excited about the Lynx’s offense, which should look more fluid and dynamic with her on the court.
Minnesota is already ranked fourth in the league in terms of pace, with 83.83 possessions per 40 minutes. Last year, they ranked 11th (79.18 possessions per 40 minutes) in the same category.
My model projects the Lynx and the Storm to each have close to 86 possessions in the game. That fast-paced action should be a boost for over bettors. Keep in mind that the Seattle Storm is a perfect 5-0 to the over this season.
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I’ve been looking forward to Napheesa Collier’s return to the Lynx as she emerged as one of the best players last year in the “wubble” with 16.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 3.3 APG.
Minnesota has really missed her on the court, especially given the team’s disappointing 0-3 start. I’m not sure that the Lynx can defeat the Storm in Collier’s first game back, but I am excited about the Lynx’s offense, which should look more fluid and dynamic with her on the court.
Minnesota is already ranked fourth in the league in terms of pace, with 83.83 possessions per 40 minutes. Last year, they ranked 11th (79.18 possessions per 40 minutes) in the same category.
My model projects the Lynx and the Storm to each have close to 86 possessions in the game. That fast-paced action should be a boost for over bettors. Keep in mind that the Seattle Storm is a perfect 5-0 to the over this season.
The Aces don’t have any players listed on the injury report, while the Fever list five players.
Indiana will be without Bernadett Hatar (6.7 PPG) due to an ankle injury. The Fever’s 2021 first-round pick Aaliyah Wilson will be sidelined again despite getting close to returning from a foot injury. The remaining players, Florencia Chagas, Temi Fagbenle, and Julie Allemand, are all opt-outs.
This game has the feeling of a possible letdown spot for the Aces
Do they really need to give max effort to defeat the Fever? Probably not. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll cover the spread, which is now up to 11 points. As a result, the Fever are likely undervalued here.
Indiana’s offense has been better than expected coming into this season. The Fever rank ninth in offensive rating (95.4 points per 100 possessions), which puts them ahead of the Sky, Lynx and the Sparks. However, they are 10th in defensive rating with 103.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Indiana has the size inside to try to contain last year’s MVP in A’ja Wilson. The question is whether it can play defense without getting into foul trouble.
The Fever won’t have to worry about having a large deficit in 3-pointers as with other teams, because Las Vegas is one of only two teams with fewer 3-point field goals per game than Indiana (4.4 vs. 4.7). That’s certainly something that could help this game sneak in under the total.
Nonetheless, I’m more likely to sit this game out with the hopes of learning more about both teams, which could come in handy later in the season.
Betting Leans: (Play down to 165) & (Play down to +10.5). Both are available at FanDuel.
By M.Arinse
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The Aces don’t have any players listed on the injury report, while the Fever list five players.
Indiana will be without Bernadett Hatar (6.7 PPG) due to an ankle injury. The Fever’s 2021 first-round pick Aaliyah Wilson will be sidelined again despite getting close to returning from a foot injury. The remaining players, Florencia Chagas, Temi Fagbenle, and Julie Allemand, are all opt-outs.
This game has the feeling of a possible letdown spot for the Aces
Do they really need to give max effort to defeat the Fever? Probably not. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll cover the spread, which is now up to 11 points. As a result, the Fever are likely undervalued here.
Indiana’s offense has been better than expected coming into this season. The Fever rank ninth in offensive rating (95.4 points per 100 possessions), which puts them ahead of the Sky, Lynx and the Sparks. However, they are 10th in defensive rating with 103.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Indiana has the size inside to try to contain last year’s MVP in A’ja Wilson. The question is whether it can play defense without getting into foul trouble.
The Fever won’t have to worry about having a large deficit in 3-pointers as with other teams, because Las Vegas is one of only two teams with fewer 3-point field goals per game than Indiana (4.4 vs. 4.7). That’s certainly something that could help this game sneak in under the total.
Nonetheless, I’m more likely to sit this game out with the hopes of learning more about both teams, which could come in handy later in the season.
Betting Leans: (Play down to 165) & (Play down to +10.5). Both are available at FanDuel.
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