The 2024 PGA Championship gets underway Thursday as the world’s best golfers will battle it out at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. Valhalla is a Par-71, 7,609-yard track designed by Jack Nicklaus that rewards big hitters.
However, those big hitters can’t get away with an inaccuracy due to the thick rough and the third-smallest greens we've seen on Tour this season. I break down the PGA Championship odds and give you my PGA Championship picks for how the trio of favorites will fare at Valhalla.
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Scottie Scheffler odds analysis and best bet
I can't believe this prop is listed at plus-money odds: Scottie Scheffler to finish inside the Top 20 after Round 1 is returning +110 at bet365. Scheffler's undoubtedly the best golfer in the world right now and there's no reason to believe that success won't continue this week.
He's won four of his past five starts and among those was the Masters, where Scheffler shot an opening-round 66 and trailed only Bryson DeChambeau.
I mentioned in the introduction that the main key to success at Valhalla is hitting the ball far to shorten the 7,600-yard track. That benefits Scottie considering he pounds the ball and has gained distance over the field in 23 of his past 24 starts.
He finished inside the Top 20 in 22 of those 24 events. He's simply the best player in the world and now that he seemingly has the putter figured out, there's no reason to bet against him.
Best bet: Scottie Scheffler Top 20 After Round 1 (+110 at bet365)
Rory McIlroy odds analysis and best bet
This is a chalky pick but we're also targeting Rory McIlroy in that same first-round market. He won at Valhalla when it last played host in 2014 and shot a 68 or lower in all four rounds.
I believe he'll score similarly this week. Valhalla is a bomber's course so Rory profiles well here considering he's one longest drivers of the golf ball in the world.
On top of that, he's entering the week in better form than anyone not named Scottie Scheffler. He's fresh off victories at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo and while we know what to expect from his driver, it's clear the rest of the bag is coming together.
Rory gained true strokes in every single category en route to his victory last week, and if he keeps that up on Thursday, a Top-20 finish on Thursday won't be difficult.
Best bet: Rory McIlroy Top 20 After Round 1 (+140 at bet365)
Xander Schauffele odds analysis and best bet
We're getting creative with Xander Schauffele by fading him in the first-round matchups. However, this play is far more a backing of Ludvig Aberg than it is a fade of Xander.
Aberg is already emerging as one of the world's premier talents at just 24 years old, and how poetic would it be if the Swede broke through for his first major victory at Valhalla?
He enters this week in great form following 16 straight weekend appearances on the PGA Tour. Over that stretch, Aberg boasts 11 Top-15 finishes, including his win at the RSM Classic and three other runner-up finishes.
One of those runner-up finishes came at Augusta as Aberg was the last man battling Scheffler on Sunday. By comparison, Schauffele finished eighth.
Best bet: Ludvig Averg over Xander Schauffele in Round 1 (+110 at DraftKings)
