The 2024 PGA Championship is here, with the challenging Valhalla Golf Club playing host to the best of the best this week in Louisville, KY.
When it comes to making outright PGA Championship picks, there’s a clear top tier in the PGA Championship odds, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy the consensus betting favorites. Thankfully, their short prices have increased the golf odds for several talented players in good form who also have proven track records in the majors.
Here are our top golf picks for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla this week.
2024 PGA Championship picks
- Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,000 at BetMGM)
- Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125 at bet365)
- Sepp Straka Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
Picks were made on 5-14 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
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2024 PGA Championship and Valhalla Golf Club key stats
Valhalla will play as a grueling 7,609-yard Par 71 this year, marking the fourth time it’s hosted the PGA Championship. In addition to it being long, the bentgrass greens will be the third smallest this season while running 13 on the Stimpmeter. That's quick.
There are water hazards in play on seven of 18 holes and seven Par 4s over 450 yards. Add three of the Par 3s stretching over 200 yards, and it’s going to take a complete tee-to-green game paired with excellent putting to win this week.
Distance off the tee will be an advantage, but long-iron play into smaller greens will be equally important. Additionally, missed fairways and greens will be penal because of the four-inch rough.
The PGA of America has put an emphasis on its PGA Championship playing a true test that requires every shot in the bag, so expect scoring to be difficult and most players to have more squares than circles on their card when it's all said and done.
- Strokes gained tee-to-green
- Strokes gained approach
- Approaches from 175-200 yards
- Strokes gained putting
- Major championships track record
- Bogey avoidance
2024 PGA Championship picks and predictions
Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,000)
Jon Rahm headed into the 2023 PGA Championship as one of the betting favorites priced in the +750 range, so we’re landing a much longer number despite his form and statistical profile remaining similar to what it was a year ago. While disappointing with a T45 at the Masters and failing to win through seven LIV Golf events is a partial explanation, Rahm is an elite talent with a proven track record at difficult courses and major championships.
He gained true strokes tee-to-green at the Masters, and he paces LIV Golf in birdie average with 5.24 per round. Rahm also ranks inside the Top 10 in driving distance, greens-in-regulation percentage, and putting average. His game is the prototype of what it takes to win at Valhalla, and Rahm has consistently contended and won at similarly long and demanding tracks.
Pick: Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,000 at BetMGM)
Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125)
The hometown hero has a pair of Wanamaker wins on his resume and heads to Valhalla with consecutive strong showings following his missed cut at the Masters in April.
Justin Thomas gained true strokes across the board en route to a T5 at the RBC Heritage and T21 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, and he’s also above average in both approaches from 175-200 yards and bogey avoidance on tour this season despite just recently finding solid form.
I’m also particularly encouraged to see Thomas rolling the rock well because even after he gained true strokes on the greens in his latest two events he still ranks 101st in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 22 rounds. A few more putts falling for the 15-time PGA Tour winner might just be the catalyst needed for his first win since taking down the 2022 PGA Championship.
Pick: Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125 at bet365)
Sepp Straka Top 40 (+140)
Sepp Straka is in the beginning stages of building a solid major-championship resume with T16 at the Masters in April, a T2 last summer at the Open Championship and a T7 at this event last year. The two-time PGA Tour winner has also gained true strokes off-the-tee in 12 consecutive events, which will serve him well at Valhalla this week.
Additionally, the Austrian has played the weekend in four consecutive events, including ranking seventh in true strokes gained on approach, 13th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 16th in true strokes gained putting during his T8 showing at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. The improved play has him ranked third in true strokes gained on approach and eighth in true strokes gained off-the-tee in this field across his past 11 measured rounds, too.
Pick: Sepp Straka Top 40 (+115 at bet365)
