The Covers Release Shows are YouTube live streams that allow viewers to make bets at the same time as professional bettors and betting groups. These professionals, with a long-term history of success, hold a lot of market influence — but the show concept pushes that even further by moving the entire betting market several points per episode.
Today, I'll explain how the Brad Powers Release Show on Thursday, September 1 proved to be an important learning moment for all bettors.
Before we dive any deeper, it's important to clear up three things:
- Brad Powers, Right Angle Sports (RAS), and Covers are all separate entities and none of these parties has direct input into one or the other making bets
- I (Adam Chernoff) am also independent of these sides and act as a host on the show for Covers, but do not have input into either side making bets.
- Sharps disagree on the same game all the time — and this article breaks that down.
What was the pick?
The show went live at 12:00 p.m. ET, with more than 1,300 viewers live on the stream. The bet was given out four minutes later at 12:04 p.m. ET.
- 308939 Portland State +21.5.
At the time of release, Circa Sports offered Portland State +22.5. Bettors with multiple sportsbooks could have bet as high as +24 at Barstool Sportsbook and +23.5 at BetMGM.
Within seconds of releasing the pick, the odds started to move. FanDuel moved the odds to Portland State +16.5, which was the lowest of any sportsbook. Circa moved to +20.5, with the rest of the betting market settling at +18.5 or +19.
Depending upon what sportsbook bettors on the stream had access to, they were immediately 4-6 points ahead of the betting market.
The buyback
The Covers Release Show ended at 12:10 p.m. ET. At 12:35 p.m. ET, there was a text notification sent from the professional sports betting group Right Angle Sports about an upcoming service release.
At 12:45 p.m. ET, RAS sent out the other side of the game — San Jose State -18.5 — as a bet for their service, grading it officially at -19, which was the widely available market number.
Their market influence pushed the entire betting market back to +21.
This two-way action prompted Matt Metcalf, the Director at Circa Sports, to increase the betting limits on the game to $10,000, while other sportsbooks were still taking only $2,000. The tweet from Jeff Benson, Circa Operations Manager, explains the view on the game:
This is the Super Bowl at @CircaSports today. Admittedly, I didn’t know Portland St. had a football team. Irregardless, @MMpact is a real sicko taking $10k on a Extra Game but I’m here for it! pic.twitter.com/1PUdK042SZ
— Jeffrey Benson (@JeffreyBenson12) September 1, 2022
How did it end?
As soon as Right Angle Sports released San Jose State -18.5, there was immediate backlash from viewers of the show because RAS also does a Release Show on Covers.
While Right Angle Sports, Brad Powers, and Covers are entirely different entities with no influence or input into who is making what bet, the crossover viewers wrongfully hinted at collusion between Brad Powers and Right Angle Sports using their influence to set up a middle between San Jose State -18.5 and Portland State +21.5, hoping the game would land 19, 20, or 21 — and both sides would win.
The game finished 21-17: Portland State covered easily, there was never any middle in play, and Brad Powers came away with a victory.
Unfortunately, a terrific educational opportunity for bettors was missed amid the misguided claims of collusion.
Nice one! Clear right side. https://t.co/1yROwixoRF pic.twitter.com/JkYeiTj8X3
— Right Angle Sports (@RASPicks) September 2, 2022
Here are five lessons every sports bettor should take to heart:
Each team can be a sharp side in each game
So many bettors fail to understand that price is more important than the team. Today's sports betting media leads bettors to believe that there is a sharp side and a public side to each game by promoting consensus percentages. What is far more important is understanding who bet on what — and at what price. Betting a game at 18.5 is not comparable to betting the same game as high as 24.
Sharps can disagree!
Another commonly held misbelief in sports betting is that the public all bet together and the sharps all bet together.
This could not be further from the truth.
In general, the biggest difference between recreational and professional players is their price sensitivity. Sharps will disagree with each other all the time on the same games because they make their own prices and create their own opinions.
The best bookmakers practice price discovery
The way that Circa Sports moved their odds reflects the most basic fundamental of bookmaking — price discovery.
Circa Sports hung a number. They took a bet they respect (Brad Powers Release and subsequent accounts betting) and moved the odds. They then took another bet they respect (RAS Release and subsequent accounts betting) and moved the odds.
While I am not speaking for Circa in this instance, it is easy to infer from Jeff’s tweet and Matt’s stance that they felt the number that would best write the most bets was in-between the two bets and clear opinions expressed.
Bookmakers do not need 50/50 action
What stands out to me is that the limits were bumped significantly once both bets were made. At this point, we saw Circa Sports encouraging and willing to write as much action as they could on the game.
Bettors are inclined to believe that sportsbooks always try to get 50/50 action on each side in a game to pocket the vig. In reality, the best sportsbooks are trying to write as much handle as possible at a price they are comfortable with.
Both the bets from RAS and Brad expressed strong opinions and opened up a lot of information to shape the market.
Smaller markets mean more volatility
Some sportsbooks moved the point spread in this game nearly a touchdown in both directions within the span of two hours. It is important to remember that this was a late-night FCS school playing a mid-tier Mountain West program listed as an "extra game" on the college football odds board.
These games are going to move considerably more than major sports markets because there is more uncertainty — and information will have a bigger impact.
Again: sports betting is all about price sensitivity. Betting opportunities often come from disagreement. The next time you think there is always a sharp side and a square side to every game, based on the teams playing, reference this article and let this be an example of why that is not the case.
