The 2025 Belmont Stakes offers plenty of intrigue this Saturday, with the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty returning off a five-week layoff to take on Journalism, who ran second in the "Run for the Roses" before taking the Preakness Stakes.
However, my free betting picks for the 157th Belmont Stakes are targeting Baeza, who ran third in the Kentucky Derby, to turn the tables going 1 1/4-miles at Saratoga on June 7.
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2025 Belmont Stakes picks
Best Bet: Baeza to win (+400 at FanDuel Racing)
Win Prediction: Baeza (+400)
Baeza nearly missed the Kentucky Derby, but a timely scratch of Rodriguez enabled him to draw into the race as the No. 21. Breaking from the far outside post at Churchill Downs, Baeza showed less early speed than expected and settled in the back half of the Derby field while racing three to four paths off the rail.
Baeza was wide turning for home as well and also lost a bit of his momentum on the final bend, exchanging multiple bumps. Still, he finished with interest to be third.
While this half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch still has just one win to his name, Baeza owns two of the fastest speed figures in the field. He was a well-rated second in the Santa Anita Derby two-back and gave Journalism a scare that day.
Like Sovereignty, Baeza enters this one fresher than Journalism after skipping the Preakness. Three of the last four winners of the Belmont have run in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. I like the Belmont Stakes odds on this upset candidate.
Place Prediction: Sovereignty (+200)
It's hard to knock a horse like Sovereignty, who's run no worse than second in five straight starts. It's even more impressive when you consider that three of those efforts were stakes wins, with one of them being the Kentucky Derby last time out.
Sovereignty's plan all along was to skip the Preakness and point to the Belmont, and the tune-up works are solid. If he gets a sloppy track on Saturday like he did in Louisville five weeks ago, it's easy to see him earning that second Triple Crown race victory.
The one thing that gives me cause for pause is his taking a slight step backward in the Florida Derby, where he ran second, after a big win off the bench in the Fountain of Youth. I would like to see him string together two monster efforts in a row before taking that price on him to win.
Show Prediction: Hill Road (+1000)
If you're searching for a Belmont Stakes long shot pick to hit the board, Hill Road looks like your horse.
This son of Quality Road has made three starts stateside after beginning his career on turf in Ireland. The surface switch to dirt appears to have been a smart one, as he outran his odds to be third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall before taking an extended vacation.
Hill Road reappeared in March in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he ran an underwhelming third. However, the late runner was trying to make up ground on a track that proved somewhat favorable to speed.
The Chad Brown trainee bounced back with a rousing victory from off the pace on a neutral surface at Aqueduct in the Peter Pan Stakes. He didn't get a meteoric pace, but it was a fair one, much like the one he might get on Saturday.
Hill Road looks like he'll like the extra furlong, too, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to climb aboard.
Belmont Stakes 2025 odds
Here are the odds for all eight Belmont Stakes horses.
| Post | Horse | * |
** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Journalism | +160 | 8-5 | +160 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | +200 | 2-1 | +200 |
| 6 | Baeza | +400 | 4-1 | +400 |
| 3 | Rodriguez | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 1 | Hill Road | +1000 | 10-1 | +1000 |
| 5 | Crudo | +1500 | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 4 | Uncaged | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 8 | Heart of Honor | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 odds are not available in the United States
