On Tuesday, post positions were drawn and the morning line set for the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby. A day later, that all got shaken up when favorite Omaha Beach had to withdraw from Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs – and in fact all three Triple Crown races – due to a respiratory issue.
Omaha Beach was the 4/1 favorite after landing the 12th post. And although Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for TwinSpires.com, wasn’t necessarily sold on the Richard Mandella-trained horse, there was no denying Omaha Beach had solid credentials heading into the Run for the Roses.**video
“He’d really picked up steam (with bettors) since his Arkansas Derby win,” DeRosa told Covers, noting that in TwinSpires’ fourth and final Kentucky Derby futures pool – which closed before the April 13 Arkansas Derby – Omaha Beach was at 10/1. “Then he won at Arkansas. He was definitely a horse taking steady money the last three to four weeks. Then you saw the price drift down in the sportsbook market, to +400/+500.
“Tuesday, he got an ideal post position, so that added to the allure. Then, with rain in the forecast, he’s won two in the slop already.”
But Omaha Beach won’t have a chance to make it three. After Wednesday’s announcement, TwinSpires adjusted the morning line and installed Game Winner as the 9/2 top choice, followed by Improbable and Roadster, both at 5/1. All three of those horses are trained by Bob Baffert.
“I think Game Winner is a horse that’s gonna attract some money,” DeRosa said. “I think he was the clear second choice, and I’d expect him to close in the 5/1 range. All the Baffert horses are beneficiaries. Bettors will gravitate toward Baffert horses. Omaha Beach beat Game Winner in the Rebel Stakes and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, and Roadster beat Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby.”
Omaha Beach’s exit created an opening in the full 20-horse field, which allowed Bodexpress to get in. Although Bodexpress is still a long shot – at 30/1 along with six other horses – anyone who took him in the futures book is certainly happy to have a live ticket.
“He’s a worthy long shot. If you’d gone into the futures book, he might’ve been 100/1 or 200/1,” DeRosa said. “If you took a flier that he’d actually get into the Kentucky Derby field, you’re sitting on a big number. The risk is gone. Those who bet him in the last week (before Omaha Beach’s withdrawal) are looking at a much better price than those looking to bet him now.”
DeRosa also noted that Tacitus, at 8/1, is a horse who merits consideration Saturday.
“He was 94/1 in February, before he won the Tampa Bay Derby,” DeRosa said. “A colleague of mine has Tacitus at 90/1. He’s definitely liking his spot!”
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
21+. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.
