The final 100-point Kentucky Derby prep races are taking place this Saturday, including the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
The Wood Memorial's recent record in terms of producing Kentucky Derby odds winners is spotty at best, but a true contender could emerge from the field of 13. The Blue Grass is the feature in our free betting picks as Dornoch, Just a Touch, and Sierra Leone line up in an All-Star brawl along with eight others in a race that could prove to the best in the division outside of the Triple Crown events by year's end.
Join me as I share my predictions and wagering advice for each race.
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Blue Grass Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Keeneland Race 10
- Post time: 5:52 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Top Conor | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 2 | Be You | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,200 |
| 3 | Seize the Grey | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 4 | Dornoch | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +275 |
| 5 | Good Money | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 6 | Just a Touch | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| 7 | Lat Long | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 8 | Epic Ride | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 9 | Mugatu | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 10 | Sierra Leone | 2-1 | +200 | +200 | +225 |
| 11 | Encino | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
Odds as of April 4, 2024.
No. 6 Just a Touch (7-2) will be my primary selection in the Blue Grass Stakes, and while I'm not adamantly against favored No. 10 Sierra Leone (2-1) and second-choice No. 4 Dornoch (3-1), I won't be using either of them on top.
Just a Touch was last seen settling for second behind Deterministic — running earlier in the day in the Wood Memorial — in a muddy renewal of the Grade III Gotham Stakes. I don't think the Brad Cox trainee minded the wet going, but I'm anxious to see if he'll improve on fast dirt in just his third career start. He handled the increase in distance from six furlongs to a mile with aplomb, and the son of Justify out of a Tapit mare should appreciate the added furlong on Saturday.
Recent tune-up works for Just a Touch are encouraging, and Florent Geroux sees fit to climb aboard once more.
No. 1 Top Conor (15-1) is unlikely to be in the double-digits come post time off a highly-rated maiden victory for Chad Brown. The $1 million son of Twirling Candy out of a Divine Park mare handled the rail draw professionally at first asking and should have no problems working out a trip from there again with Jose Ortiz retaining the assignment.
No. 11 Encino (12-1) is a wild card trying conventional dirt for the first time, but he's seemingly trained well over it for Cox. He's progressed nicely in the speed-figure department and exits a strong score in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park. Flavien Prat will get a leg-up on this son of Nyquist for the first time.
Dornoch and Sierra Leone each won their lone start since the former inched out the latter to win the Remsen Stakes at age two. However, the former beat a very weak field in the Fountain of Youth, while the latter needs to prove he's just as good on fast dirt as he is in the slop.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 1/6/11, $3 exacta 6/1,4,10,11 ($24)
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Wood Memorial odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Aqueduct Race 10
- Post time: 4:07 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Resilience | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +800 |
| 2 | El Grande O | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +700 |
| 3 | Lonesome Boy | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| 4 | Deterministic | 7-5 | +140 | +140 | +250 |
| 5 | Protective | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +1,600 |
| 6 | Evening News | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,200 |
| 7 | Merit | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| 8 | Elysian Meadows | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 9 | Tuscan Sky | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +450 |
| 10 | Gettysburg Address | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +1,600 |
| 11 | Society Man | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +1,600 |
| 12 | Deposition | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| 13 | Uncle Heavy | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +600 |
Odds as of April 4, 2024.
No. 9 Tuscan Sky (4-1) is a perfect 2-for-2 to begin his young career, and while both efforts came up fast, there are some asterisks attached.
Both victories came over off-tracks, and Tuscan Sky beat just two horses, one of which was eased, in his lone route try to date. However, the horse he beat by two lengths in Nash did return to win his next race, and was considered a hot Derby prospect earlier in the campaign.
Todd Pletcher doesn't take wild shots in races like this, and Manny Franco will be in the irons. Note the recent four-furlong bullet drill.
No. 4 Deterministic (7-5, morning-line favorite) overcame a lengthy layoff to take the Gotham Stakes and run his career record to 2-for-2. That was an impressive effort both visually and from a speed figure perspective. Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement team up once again on this son of Liam's Map.
No. 13 Uncle Heavy (8-1) picked up a hard-fought win in the Withers when last seen in what was truly muddy track at Aqueduct that not many horses could handle. The stamina won't be a concern, but he might be a notch behind the top two in terms of raw talent.
No. 2 El Grande O (8-1) has hit the board in each of Aqueduct's three Kentucky Derby preps this year — hard to dismiss.
Best bet: $6 exacta box 4/9, $3 exacta 4,9/2,13 ($24)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fierceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | Timberlake |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Dornoch |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | Encino |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | Imagination* |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | Deterministic |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | Domestic Product |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | Catching Freedom |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | Endlessly |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | Forever Young |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | Muth* |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | Fierceness |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
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