Two of the most important Kentucky Derby preps are taking place this Saturday, with Gulfstream Park hosting the Grade I, $1 million Florida Derby and Oaklawn Park offering the Grade I, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby.
Sovereignty and Cornucopian figure to be heavily bet in these respective races, but can either or both runners be beaten? Find out as I analyze the Kentucky Derby odds and make my free betting picks for March 29.
Florida Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 14
- Post time: 6:42 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV, CNBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neoequos | 10-1 | +1000 | +1000 |
| 2 | Cool Intentions | 20-1 | +2000 | +3300 |
| 3 | Smoken Boy | 30-1 | +3000 | +6600 |
| 4 | Disruptor | 4-1 | +400 | +400 |
| 5 | Indecisiveness | 30-1 | +3000 | +5000 |
| 6 | Jimmy's Dailys | 12-1 | +1200 | +1200 |
| 7 | Enterdadragon | 30-1 | +3000 | +3300 |
| 8 | Madaket Road | 7-2 | +350 | +550 |
| 9 | Tappan Street | 5-1 | +500 | +450 |
| 10 | Sovereignty | 8-5 | +160 | +137 |
Odds as of 3-28.
No. 10 Sovereignty (8-5, morning-line favorite) was apparently not fully cranked when he roared home to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes last time out. If he truly had rust to shake off, then this field is in a world of trouble, even with regular rider Junior Alvarado out due to injury and Manuel Franco picking up the call.
Sovereignty had also hinted at top-notch talent at age two when he took the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs two-back.
No. 9 Tappan Street (5-1) is the most logical alternative to the favorite in the Florida Derby field, with Luis Saez getting a leg-up once more for Brad Cox. He moved up in the speed figure department even though he didn't win the Holy Bull after jumping out of the maiden ranks.
Tappan Street has trained forwardly for his third lifetime start, which sets him up for a lifetime-best effort.
No. 8 Madaket Road (7-2) nearly wired the Rebel Stakes last time out despite setting a fast pace. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumping off in favor of No. 4 Disruptor (4-1) is discouraging, but Hall-of-Famer Mike Smith will catch-ride for Bob Baffert.
Disruptor will try to give trainer Todd Pletcher a third straight Florida Derby win and a staggering ninth career triumph in this race. He powered home a convincing and well-rated winner vs. maidens at second asking, albeit at seven furlongs.
Disruptor has to answer the distance question as well as the class one, so don't settle for a short price if betting to win.
Best bet: $4 exacta 10/4,8,9, $3 exacta box 9/10, $2 exacta 9/10 ($20)
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Arkansas Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Oaklawn Race 13
- Post time: 7:48 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1, FanDuel TV, CNBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brereton's Baytown | 30-1 | +3000 | +20000 |
| 2 | First Division | 20-1 | +2000 | +2500 |
| 3 | Publisher | 6-1 | +600 | +900 |
| 4 | Bestfriend Rocket | 20-1 | +2000 | +3300 |
| 5 | Speed King | 15-1 | +1500 | +1100 |
| 6 | Sandman | 3-1 | +300 | +450 |
| 7 | Monet's Magic | 20-1 | +2000 | +4000 |
| 8 | Coal Battle | 7-2 | +350 | +400 |
| 9 | Cornucopian | 7-5 | +140 | -110 |
Odds as of 3-28.
A potentially sloppy track at Oaklawn this Saturday muddies the picture a bit for the Arkansas Derby, especially with No. 9 Cornucopian (7-5, morning-line favorite) already trying something new by routing after breaking his maiden in a six-furlong sprint. The wet weather just solidifies my stance that No. 8 Coal Battle (7-2) is the better win bet of the two.
Coal Battle is a perfect 5-for-5 on dirt, winning two races on "off" tracks already. He's also taken the first two Kentucky Derby preps at Oaklawn in the Smarty Jones and the Rebel, and I like his chances to notch another victory this Saturday under regular pilot Juan Vargas.
Cornucopian's fast figure earned in his debut romp makes him a logical contender, though going from six furlongs to nine while negotiating a major step up in class is something that even Baffert may not have the answers for. Irad Ortiz Jr. is out of town, but John Velazquez picks up the ride.
No. 6 Sandman (3-1) is his own worst enemy, as he can't seem to get away from the gate cleanly. He's never been this far, but a bit more distance may help him make up the ground he usually spots the frontrunners. Jose Ortiz sees fit to climb aboard for the first time.
Best bet: $7 exacta box 8/9, $3 exacta 8,9/6 ($20)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 1, 2024 | Del Mar | Citizen Bull |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 4, 2025 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Jerome Stakes | January 4 | Aqueduct | Cyclone State |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 18 | Fair Grounds | Disco Time |
| Southwest Stakes | January 25 | Oaklawn Park | Speed King |
| Withers Stakes | February 1 | Aqueduct | Captain Cook |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 1 | Gulfstream Park | Burnham Square |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 1 | Santa Anita Park | Citizen Bull |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | John Hancock |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 15 | Fair Grounds | Magnitude |
| Sunland Derby | February 16 | Sunland Park | Getaway Car |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 22 | Turfway Park | California Burrito |
| Rebel Stakes | February 23 | Oaklawn Park | Coal Battle |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 1 | Gulfstream Park | Sovereignty |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 1 | Santa Anita Park | Journalism |
| Gotham Stakes | March 1 | Aqueduct | Flood Zone |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 8 | Tampa Bay Downs | Owen Almighty |
| Virginia Derby | March 15 | Colonial Downs | American Promise |
| Louisiana Derby | March 22 | Fair Grounds | Tiztastic |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 22 | Turfway Park | Final Gambit |
| Arkansas Derby | March 29 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 29 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | April 5 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 5 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 5 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 5 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 12 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
