Is it possible that the dream of legalizing sports betting in California this election cycle isn’t dead and buried?
Well, if you are an online sports betting company, maybe keep the champagne corked for now.
That said, a recent poll conducted by SurveyUSA for the San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV 10News suggests support for legal sports betting in California is not as weak as another recent canvassing of voters indicated.
The SurveyUSA poll asked 1,013 likely voters several questions, including their thoughts about Proposition 26, which would allow in-person sports betting at tribal casinos and racetracks, and Proposition 27, which would enable online sports betting across the state. The findings were released on Tuesday.
On the latter measure, 37% of those surveyed by SurveyUSA said they were certain to vote yes on Prop 27, while 43% said no to the online sports betting initiative and 20% were uncertain. On Prop 26, the poll found that 43% of voters were certain to vote yes, 32% no, and 25% were unsure about the retail measure.
Better, but not enough
Those numbers are sunnier than the ones that emerged from a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, the findings of which were released on October 4. According to that poll, just 31% of those surveyed supported Prop 26 and just 27% were in favor of Prop 27.
A swing of 10 percentage points to the good for Prop 27 and 12 percentage points for Prop 26 could mean that more voters are being won over to the idea of legal sports betting in California, even if that support would still need to go higher if the measures are to pass in November.
Yet the latest polling also arrived as backers of Prop 27 sound like they are preparing for defeat next month and are already looking ahead to another attempt at convincing voters in 2024.
For instance, the chief executive officer of DraftKings reportedly said during a gaming conference on Tuesday that it is "more than likely" that the online sports betting measure will instead pass in 2024.
DraftKings is one of several companies that have pumped more than $150 million into an effort to legalize online sports betting in California, with more than $400 million raised overall over the question of legal sports betting in general in the state.
Gambling companies backing a ballot measure to legalize online sports betting in California cut TV advertising after polls show Prop 27 trailing badly https://t.co/fMTZC5xEno
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 10, 2022
The money may not have been enough, and DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and the other Prop 27 supporters may be pulling back on their spending. Notably, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the pro-Prop 27 campaign recently scrapped around $11 million in television ads, which may not be having the desired effect on voters.
“SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KGTV 10News and the San Diego Union-Tribune shows a relative lack of voter familiarity with two ballot measures related to gaming may be contributing to high numbers of undecided voters, leaving any outcome possible,” the polling company noted.
DraftKings $DKNG CEO Jason Robbins said today online sports betting in California probably won’t become legal this year but “more than likely will pass in 2024,” according to Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/Jf59j9wSbZ
— Roundhill Investments (@roundhill) October 11, 2022
Despite this, some of the other findings of the SurveyUSA poll suggest voters may just be apathetic towards sports betting in general.
Almost 80% of those surveyed said they had some level of familiarity with the two ballot measures and 74% said they had some level of understanding of the difference between the two initiatives.
Proposition 26 is supported by Native American tribes in California that are protective of their casinos and the revenue they generate for their communities. Proposition 27, meanwhile, is being framed by online sportsbook operators as a way to help fund housing in the state.
Asked which issue would be most important in deciding how to vote on the ballot measures, 37% of those surveyed said housing for homeless people, 23% the financial well-being of tribes, and 21% the legal status of sports betting.
Furthermore, 41% of those polled said expanding access to gambling would be bad for California, while 37% said it would be good and 22% were unsure.
Fifty-five percent of voters surveyed said they either occasionally or regularly visit a tribal casino, and 36% said they either sometimes or consistently bet on sporting events, including horse racing.
