The ability to offer sports betting in Florida is at stake.
The Seminole Tribe and its Hard Rock Bet sportsbook enjoy sole jurisdiction over the legal Florida sports betting market, but the highest court in the U.S. will weigh in on whether or not that remains.
The matter of West Flagler Associates, Ltd., et al, v. Debra Haaland, et al., - otherwise known around the industry as "the Florida sports betting case" - has been “distributed for conference” to the Supreme Court for a June 13 discussion. The Court’s nine justices are expected to review the case on that date to decide where things go from there.
Both West Flagler and the federal government filed briefs earlier this month. Lawyers for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland asked SCOTUS to deny any motions by West Flagler to move this case forward because it’s the federal government’s opinion that earlier rulings upholding the Florida sports betting compact were correct. West Flagler is calling the legality of the current status of sports betting in Florida “plainly unlawful,” so this dissonance has now made its way all the way to the Supreme Court.
Talking points
In legal terms, West Flagler has filed a petition of certiorari, which essentially asks the Supreme Court to review a lower court’s decision.
Legal sports betting in Florida only exists because of the “hub-and-spoke” gaming compact which granted exclusive rights to the Seminole Tribe to establish statewide online sports betting platforms. Hard Rock Bet fully launched in December despite ongoing legal battles at various levels of the federal and state legal systems challenging whether the hub-and-spoke facet of the compact allowing off-reservation bets wired through tribal servers actually meets the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA).
Florida attorney Daniel Wallach filed an amicus brief arguing that this structure actually violates the IGRA, citing Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s statement from last October that “if the compact authorized the Tribe to conduct off-reservation gaming operations, either directly or by deeming off-reservation gaming operations to somehow be on-reservation, then the compact would likely violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA).”
Both sides of this case have previously asked the Supreme Court to shut down the other’s petition, so the June 13 session will move the needle in one direction or another.
Possible outcomes
Wallach took to X to lay out what he thinks are the most likely possibilities following June 13’s discussion:
Per the #SCOTUS calendar, the cert disposition date in the Florida sports betting case will likely be on either June 17 or June 24.
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) May 28, 2024
3 options:
1) Deny cert (>95% of the time)
2) Grant cert (with merits briefing + oral argument in late 2024/25)
3) Summary reversal right now. https://t.co/FyovZ2oLK7
Historical evidence suggests that denying the cert is the likely outcome as Wallach claims that’s what’s occurred in more than 95% of cases presented before the Court. If this decision were handed down, then West Flagler and all parties hoping to quash the current Florida sports betting structure would only be able to turn to state courts to challenge the compact.
The Supreme Court of Florida has already thrown out an attempt to undo the arrangement between the Sunshine State and its Seminole Tribe.
If the Supreme Court does end up granting certiorari, it will then decide the case on the merits with both sides submitting merits briefs and engaging in oral arguments likely in late 2024 or early 2025.
West Flagler - and the likes of FanDuel, DraftKings, and the other top online sports betting sites in the U.S. - are probably pulling for a summary reversal the most, which would reverse the previous court’s decisions and bring the current Florida sports betting setup to its knees immediately. All nine justices would have to vote in favor of this ruling though, and Justice Kavanaugh’s past statements suggest he could be pushing hard for it.
