In just days, customers have purchased more than $1 million worth of Kalshi’s new Super Bowl prediction contracts.
The predictions market operator Kalshi notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week that it would start offering prediction contracts relating to U.S. sports leagues. Since its Jan. 23 launch, Kalshi has taken in more than $1.3 million on the predicted winner of the NFL Super Bowl. As expected, the returning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, are currently leading the Philadelphia Eagles by a margin of 54% to 46%.
Chiefs open up as favorites in the rematch...3-peat?
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) January 27, 2025
🔴KC: 55%
🟢Philly: 45% pic.twitter.com/ymUkSBilIW
Kalshi’s latest contracts are specified as “Will <team> win <title>?” and are offered at prices between $0.01 and $0.99. Winning contracts are paid $1.00. So far, Kalshi plans to offer prediction contracts for the NFL, NBA Conference champions, NBA champion, NHL champion, and the NCAA men’s basketball champion.
Games move fast
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) January 27, 2025
Markets move faster pic.twitter.com/cfwJ0va2CO
Kalshi offers a plethora of prediction contracts, ranging from today’s closing Bitcoin price to the Grammy’s Song of the Year. Kalshi even has a contract on whether President Donald Trump will take back the Panama Canal.
While Kalshi affirms its CFTC filing allows it to legally offer its latest sports event contracts in all 50 states, it’s not as cut and dried as the company makes it sound.
For instance, Crypto.com offers similar sporting event contracts under the auspices of the CFTC. The CFTC, however, doesn’t believe these contracts meet the regulator’s legal requirements. In fact, the CFTC currently has two of Crypto.com’s contracts under review. The CFTC determined the contracts “may involve an activity enumerated in CFTC Regulation 40.11(a) and section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act.”
While the CFTC requested Crypto.com pause those contracts during the 90-day review period, the company has refused.
“We remain committed to working with the CFTC and will continue to support our customers and the trading of our sports title event contracts in all 50 states without interruption while we review the CFTC’s notification,” said a Crypto.com spokesperson.
Kalshi, however, has been fairly successful when it comes to battling the CFTC. Last year, the regulator tried to prohibit Kalshi from offering election-based prediction contracts. The issue went before a federal appeals court and Kalshi prevailed. Also, the new administration seems more likely to loosen securities regulations than to tighten them, which could result in a weaker CFTC.
