In a major boost to proponents of sports betting in Minnesota, a new poll released on Sunday found that nearly half of those surveyed are in favor of legal sports betting in the Gopher State.
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and analyzed by APM Research Lab, showed that 48% of likely voters want the state to allow sports betting, as opposed to 33% against and 19% undecided, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
This favorable result should provide some renewed momentum for state legislators to work on a new bill to legalize sports wagering in Minnesota, when the next legislative session begins on January 3, 2023.
The Minnesota results also are much more supportive of legalization when compared to a recent California poll that revealed that more than half of likely voters opposed a sportsbook-sponsored legislation to legalize online sports betting. But voter sentiment here shows that Minnesota, home to the NFL's Minnesota Vikings, the MLB's Minnesota Twins, the NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves, and the NHL's Minnesota Wild, enjoys broad support for legal sports betting across virtually every demographic group.
Breaking down the poll results
The results are also considered highly reliable, given that Mason-Dixon enjoys an A rating from the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregation site.
The poll was primarily focused on political surveys ahead of the November 8 midterms, but with respect to sports betting, men (50% for, 32% against) were more likely than women (46% vs. 35%) to support legalized sports betting but there were no statistically significant differences on the issue with respect to political party affiliations, age groups, or regions.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters identifying as Democrats and 50% of Republicans are in favor of legalized sports betting, while only 40% of independents expressed support.
White voters backed the notion by a 48% to 34% margin, while minority groups showed a robust 51% to 29% favorable intention — the 22% positive margin equalling the widest gap among subgroups listed.
The only outlier result in the poll came among likely voters aged 18 to 34, which backed sports betting by a slim 44% to 41% margin. This demographic group is considered an important new customer segment by sportsbooks, especially with the increasing popularity of in-play wagering and micro-betting, as featured on the Jake Paul-fronted Betr app.
House and Senate bills previously stopped by lack of consensus
At present, Minnesota belongs to the minority of 14 states that have yet to legalize sports betting, despite a seemingly large public thirst for wagering on professional and collegiate sports.
In May, the Democratic-controlled House passed a bipartisan bill, led by DFL Rep. Zach Stephenson and Republican Pat Garofalo and which was developed in cooperation with the state's 11 native tribes. This bill would have allowed the tribes to partner with sportsbooks to offer online sports wagering while allowing for retail sports betting at all 22 tribal-controlled casinos in Minnesota.
But then the GOP-controlled Senate advanced their own bill, which amended the House measure and would have given the state's two racetracks permission to launch retail sportsbooks as well as offer online wagering. This was vigorously opposed by the tribes, which prompted Gov. Tim Walz to go on record as rejecting any betting legislation which did not have tribal backing.
Last-minute bipartisan negotiations to reach a compromise failed prior to the end of the legislative session in May, allowing the legislation to die. Said Rep. Garofalo of the snafu: "Too many legislators are focused on short-term political considerations instead of thinking about what is best for the whole state."
Minnesota missing out on massive NFL revenues
Being able to bet on the hometown Vikings — and NFL games in general — Minnesota would have enjoyed the kind of skyrocketing enthusiasm, and massive gains in wagers placed, other states experienced over the first two weeks of the new football season.
According to figures provided by the American Gaming Association, 23.3 million Americans are expected place an online bet on NFL action this season, an increase of 18% from the previous year, while only 13% of NFL bettors intend to use an unregulated bookie — down from 2021's mark of 15%.
This further incentivizes the state legislature to pass a sports betting bill that, in its most recent form, would tax sportsbook revenues at 10%. This would create an important new source of revenue as opposed to allowing Minnesotans to cross state lines to neighboring Iowa, which offers both retail sports wagering and online betting, plus other neighboring states such as Wisconsin (retail and limited online) or South Dakota (retail only).
