Following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump this past weekend, a divide has emerged among legal sportsbooks in Canada’s most populous province.
Some operators, namely BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel, have stopped taking bets in Ontario on the 2024 presidential election following the shooting in Pennsylvania that killed one person and left Trump and other spectators injured.
“In light of recent events, FanDuel has made the decision to suspend its US election markets,” a spokesperson for the bookmaker said on Monday. “At this time, FanDuel has no further comment.”
BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel have pulled U.S. election markets in Ontario, but other books (such as Betano, BetVictor, and Fitzdares) have not.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 16, 2024
Seems operators with stronger U.S. ties grew skittish following the Trump assassination attempt. Euro operators not so much. pic.twitter.com/Z7PEiw8Ajj
But other Ontario sports betting operators, such as bet365 and Fitzdares, have kept their election markets up in the province.
At those shops, the 2024 election odds have continued to fluctuate, including those for Trump to win the presidency. The price for a Trump victory had shortened to -290 at Fitzdares as of Wednesday morning, a 74.36% implied probability of a win for the Republican candidate.
Those odds have shortened, at least in part, because some bettors are hammering Trump to win following the shooting (former president Ronald Reagan saw a bump in popularity after he survived his own assassination attempt in 1981). As a result, operators may have built up some sizable liability on Trump to reclaim the White House.
“I cannot see one good reason why we would take down an election market, in fact, it seems rather mean to do so with such a moment in this election year,” said William Woodhams, chief executive officer of Fitzdares, in an email to Covers. “The only reason I can see operators doing this is to protect their own wallets from the onslaught of Trump bets that will follow the attempted assassination.”
One difference between Ontario sportsbooks that are still taking bets on the election and those that aren’t are their roots. Those with more of a presence with U.S. consumers are opting out while those that have deeper ties to Europe are deciding to remain in the business of political wagering in the province.
Although betting on elections in the U.S. is restricted and mostly illegal, it's allowed in Canada, and U.S.-based operators had offered odds in Ontario until only recently. Those same odds were not offered in the U.S., but bettors, voters, and regulators there may have still been aware of them.
FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment PLC, is headquartered in Ireland. However, the brand's markets, licenses, and customers are chiefly in the U.S. (and so is its head office), perhaps making the operator more sensitive to stateside political concerns. Boston-based DraftKings could be similarly sensitive.
BetMGM is a more curious case. The operator is owned by Las Vegas-based MGM Resorts International and London-based Entain PLC. Nevertheless, the operator has decided to take a break from taking election bets in Ontario. That's even as other Entain brands, such as bwin and Sports Interaction, continue to take action on the election in Ontario.
Sports Interaction is even offering odds on a head-to-head golf match between Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden. That may never happen but it became possible in the popular imagination after the duo sparred over the sport during their debate last month.
A long history of election betting
U.K.-based bet365 and Fitzdares, among others, are also offering odds on the presidential race in Ontario. Betano, which belongs to Athens-headquartered Kaizen Gaming, is doing the same.
European operators, particularly in the U.K., have a long history of booking elections. That's another reason for their comfort in continuing to take bets on this presidential race.
“We've been taking political bets for over 100 years and it takes a large-scale integrity issue or suspicious betting patterns to halt a market,” Woodhams said. “Elections are about freedom and being able to wager freely on them is part and parcel of that process. I think Mr Trump would support us keeping the market open.”
