Another majority government for Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party bodes well for the province’s competitive online sports betting and casino gambling market, which the Tories implemented and continues to grow under their watch. As of Friday afternoon, with 8,073 of 8,079 polls reporting, Ford's PC Party won or was leading in 80 ridings following Thursday’s election.
That gives the Tories another comfy majority in Ontario's legislature (their third in a row), as the next closest opposition party, the NDP, was in line for or won 27 seats for itself. There were 124 seats up for grabs in the Feb. 27 vote in Canada’s most populous province.
FanDuel (perhaps boldly) is taking bets on the Ontario election in Ontario with the campaign now underway.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 29, 2025
Ford and the PCs are -1500 faves to win, an implied probability of 93.75%. Limits apply but if you've got a dime and dreams of Tory victory an extra $66.67 could be yours! pic.twitter.com/d8kVGN5Lew
A PC win and majority government were expected. The pro-iGaming Tories were ahead in the polls and sizable oddsboard favourites. At FanDuel, for example, the PCs were -1500 to win the election back on Jan. 29, an implied 93.75% probability.
FanDuel Sportsbook is only available in Ontario because of the Ford government’s decision to launch a competitive iGaming market in 2022. This broke from the norm in Canada, where most provinces grant legal iGaming monopolies to government-owned lottery corporations.
While Alberta is developing an Ontario-like internet gambling market of its own, Ontario is still the only province that authorizes the likes of FanDuel, DraftKings, and other private-sector operators to take action from its residents.
There are now 50 private operators and 84 private sports betting, bingo, casino gaming, and poker sites licensed in Ontario, in addition to the government-owned Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp's iGaming site.
For the three months ended Dec. 31, bettors wagered $22.7 billion in Ontario's competitive iGaming market, up 22% over the previous quarter and 32% from a year earlier. Thursday’s victory by Ford and the Tories, at the very least, means those operators and that wagering can continue with little fear of any major disruption.
Nothing to see here
Online gambling was not a major or even minor issue on the campaign trail, as Ford’s snap election call was framed as a means of securing a strong mandate to face whatever U.S. President Donald Trump has in store for Canada. Yet one change to Ontario’s iGaming market that could happen in the near future would be triggered by the courts, rather than Queen’s Park.
A year before Thursday’s election, in Feb. 2024, the Ford government directed a question to the province’s Court of Appeal regarding online gambling and international play, with the answer possibly having implications for paid daily fantasy contestants and poker players.
One of the byproducts of Ontario's competitive iGaming market was it effectively killed paid DFS contests in the province and shrank the pool of potential poker players. That's because the province considers both paid DFS and poker gambling and so offering them requires operators to abide by Ontario’s iGaming rules, which state all participants must be located within its borders.
As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel shuttered their DFS businesses in Ontario, although they then began offering residents online sports betting and iGaming. Poker games, meanwhile, have gotten smaller.
Ford the poker people?
With this in mind, the Ford government referred its question to the appeals court, asking if it's legal to let Ontario gamblers play in online poker or paid DFS contests against rivals in other countries, such as the U.S.
The Court of Appeal heard the online gaming reference in November, with lawyers for the provincial government arguing it should be legal to let locals play with gamblers abroad. A decision from the court is still pending, but could come any day now.
If the court rules in favour of what the province argued, it could pave the way for the Ontario government to reach deals with international operators and regulators and deepen the pool of potential poker players.
A “yes” from the court could also mean regulated operators once again offer paid daily fantasy contests in Ontario, as the pool of potential DFS players would deepen as well. Whatever the decision, it will be up to Ford's government, the same one that asked the question, to deal with the fallout.
