Regulated North American sportsbooks have readying themselves for President Joe Biden Sunday announcement he would not seek re-election by offering odds on a host of other contenders — and reaffirming former President Donald Trump as the prohibitive favorite.
Biden’s performance during a June 27 debate with Trump reignited Democrats’ concerns about the president’s fitness for office. A slight underdog heading into the debate, Biden’s odds decreased even more in the ensuing weeks – and he took another hit July 17 after testing positive for COVID-19, a development that forced him to cut short a campaign stop in Las Vegas and return to his Delaware home to recover.
This is the latest swerve in what has been more than a week of seesaw action between the odds for Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. At roughly +200 heading into the debate, Biden saw his chances at the presidency decrease to as +700 as of Wednesday. Harris’ odds fluctuated back and forth to as low as +300 and are back to +500 as reports swirled she could replace Biden as her party’s presidential nominee.
In the days leading to the announcement, Biden's odds continued to lengthen, rising higher than +1500.
The July 13 assassination attempt on Trump led multiple leading sportsbooks to pull down presidential election odds. Those books that kept lines up saw Biden drastically improve his chances to secure the Democratic nomination as party figures paused efforts to force him from the race.
At books still offering odds as of July 17, Biden's latest health scare has him in a dead heat with Harris in Democratic party nominee markets (+100), and trailing Harris in the race to secure the presidency. Still, this back-and-forth movement shows sportsbooks’ preparedness should Biden drop out of the race, said DraftKings Director of Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello.
“I think it's reflective in the odds,” said Avello, a long-time bookmaker. “Now, it was certainly reflected in the odds last week, when Harris took the top spot. So it's in there. It's built-in.”
If Biden were to leave the campaign, he would be the first presidential incumbent not to secure his party’s nomination since Lyndon Johnson in 1968. This would mark an unprecedented development in contemporary political times, but Avello said his team was ready for either scenario.
“Anything can happen, of course,” Avello said. “So we certainly stay on top of things.”
Candidates wait in the wings
There is no shortage of Democratic candidates waiting to take up the party mantle.
Sportsbooks are offering odds on more than a dozen other Democrats to win the presidency. Harris, as VP, has far and away the best chance of any candidate after Biden and Trump.
The next wave of contenders is led by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, both available for around +5,000 to as low as +3,500 before Biden's dropout annoucnement. Former First Lady Michelle Obama and 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton were also popular bets, Avello said, with odds in the vicinity of the pair of governors.
It’s too early to tell exactly how much the Democratic field’s odds will shift in the coming days, but Avello said sportsbooks are already preparing for such a scenario with the odds offered on the other candidates.
“We have to put them up there because it could happen,” Avello said. “There’s some pretty good odds. But yeah, we’d have a plan if Biden dropped out. We’d adjust. We’d have a ‘Plan B’.”
Trump strengthens position
As Democratic odds vacillate, the Republican nominee’s odds have only gone in one direction.
Donald Trump sat at around a -250 favorite at most books to retake the presidency before Biden left the race. Democratic election turmoil followed by the aftermath of the failed assassination attempt have both led to noticeable increases in what was a close race in the eyes of bookmakers a month ago.
His odds decreased at books still taking presidential bets Sunday to around -200.
Though the selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate did little to bolster his presidential odds, oddsmakers are increasingly comfortable keeping Trump as a sizeable favorite.
Replacing Biden atop the Democratic ticket will shift the race’s dynamics but it wouldn’t appear to be nearly enough to erase Trump’s lead. It would likely take another drastic turn in what has already been one of the most chaotic election cycles in modern U.S. history.
With about four months to go before the election, the one certainty is there will be more dramatic developments poised to shake up betting odds up through Nov. 5.
“It does change a bit based on the noise out there and who's thinking what and who says what,” Avello said. “People will bet it based on that. Then we react to it based on that.”
