It has been a long time since the Super Bowl was just about deciding the National Football League’s season champion.
From the pregame festivities to the national anthem to the extravaganza of the halftime show to the must-see commercials that appear during stoppages in play, Super Bowl Sunday is now an all-encompassing event for both football fans and football non-fans alike.
And those ads that will be shown during the Super Bowl on Sunday can be just as anticipated as the game itself, so prediction market Kalshi is now offering event contracts on which companies will be running ads on the Fox national broadcast.
Which companies will run ads during the Super Bowl?
Pepsi, Budweiser, FanDuel commercials all set
Three of the top favorites on the board hold no value as contract options because those companies – Budweiser, PepsiCo, and FanDuel – have already been reported as having commercials ready to run during the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Budweiser will have its Clydesdales back for yet another appearance during the big game, while Bud Light’s commercial will feature Post Malone, Shane Gillis, and Peyton Manning. PepsiCo is slated to have ads for its Doritos, Lay’s, and Mountain Dew brands, while FanDuel has enlisted the Manning brothers to feature in its Kick of Destiny promotion this year.
FanDuel sat at a 97% chance as of early Thursday to have a Super Bowl ad, with Bud and PepsiCo at 99%. Note the percentages on the market can shift quickly and might now differ from what is reported here.
Coca-Cola Company among middle tier of picks
The Coca-Cola Company, which like PepsiCo encompasses many brands, has yet to be reported as having a commercial set for Sunday, leaving it as a toss-up at 52% on the market at Kalshi. Coca-Cola is no stranger to Super Bowl advertising; its classic Joe Greene ad is one of the best of all time. Will Coca-Cola slip in an ad for one of its brands during the Super Bowl to compete with top rival Pepsi?
T-Mobile is set at 65%, although reporting by Forbes suggests neither T-Mobile or Verizon will have ads during the Super Bowl on Sunday. That same report seems to rule out both Toyota and Hyundai. As well, Progressive Insurance isn’t expected to have an ad during the Super Bowl this time around, and neither is State Farm (5%) after they cancelled their plans for a commercial.
Apple leads a long list of technology companies
Apple Inc. is sitting as a 34% longer-shot on Kalshi’s market to have an ad run during the clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Apple is responsible for the most famous Super Bowl commercial of all time, its 1984 spot directed by Ridley Scott. As well, the Super Bowl halftime show this year – with headliner Kendrick Lamar set to perform – has been given the full title of "Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show," so the company will be featured in at least that capacity.
Coinbase (47%) has a history of running Super Bowl ads as well, but nothing is reported (yet) for Super Bowl LIX. The rest of the technology companies represented in Kalshi’s market are focused on the field of Artificial Intelligence and include Perplexity, Anthropic, Nvidia, xAI, and OpenAI, with OpenAI’s percentage surging Wednesday night on news it would have a Super Bowl LIX ad.
Which are the best market options for Sunday?
With many companies having already been confirmed as in or out for Super Bowl LIX commercials for Sunday it doesn’t leave that many viable options on the Kalshi market.
So where can we look for value? Apple has a history with the Super Bowl along with an affiliation with the halftime show this year through its Apple Music brand, so that’s a start. The other tech companies in the market are anyone’s guess at this point and still a volatile pick, meaning you might be better off with the Coca-Cola Company and their bevvy of brands as a secondary selection here heading into Sunday.
Picks: Apple and Coca-Cola Company
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What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange that allows users in the U.S. to buy and sell “Yes” and “No” contracts tied to certain event outcomes, such as elections, economic data releases, and entertainment awards. You can get started with our Kalshi promo code.
The company – which calls itself a prediction market – was founded in 2018. It was granted its status as a designated contract market in 2020 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an independent agency of the U.S. government.
Where is Kalshi legal?
As of now, it is available only to U.S. residents. However, because it is federally regulated, it is legal throughout the entire country, rather than on a state-by-state basis like some sportsbooks.
How does Kalshi work?
Users make their bets using event contracts that fluctuate in value until they are settled by a certain outcome. For example, someone who believes J.D. Vance will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028 can purchase a "Yes" contract for 45 cents apiece.
If Vance is the nominee, the contract would pay out a dollar, earning you a 55-cent profit for each contract you still hold. That said, between you buying and the market settling, the contract’s value will go up or down depending on your fellow traders’ opinions, and you can sell at any time. Kalshi charges a trading fee, which is how it makes its money.
