Wagering on this year’s U.S. election is quickly becoming more than just a question of Harris or Trump, Democrat or Republican.
Where they can, some online sportsbooks have increased the number of U.S. election betting markets they offer customers. Meanwhile, newer names offering de facto political wagering continue to add new ways of getting money down on the 2024 races and beyond.
In Ontario, Canada, where operators are free to offer U.S. election odds, the options can range from minimal to rather robust, depending on where you look.
Election season of plenty
At bet365, bettors can wager on the winner of the presidential election, but also which party will win any given state (e.g. the GOP is -20000 to take Alabama), among other things. There are nine betting markets combined for this year's presidential election, as well as a market for Bulgaria's parliamentary election later this month.
DraftKings, which is headquartered in Boston, pulled its presidential election betting market from Ontario earlier this year following the attempt on the life of Donald Trump. But that market is back, and there are several others now as well, including ones for how many states the Democrats or Republicans will win in November. The extra markets were added earlier this month.
BetMGM and FanDuel, two other U.S.-based operators that pulled their presidential election betting markets following the assassination attempt, have put those markets back up, but not much else.
Meanwhile, at bwin, a brand that began in Europe, all of the standard election betting fare is there and then some. For example, the bookmaker offers several "specials," such as whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, or a Trump 2024-Ron DeSantis 2028 and 2032 parlay.
Millions at stake
The additional betting markets suggest an appetite for election wagering among customers in Canada and abroad that may also exist in the U.S. And, just as with stick-and-ball sports like baseball and football, sportsbook operators are meeting that demand for more by giving bettors what they want.
While exact details about handle can be hard to come by in Canada, overseas there are some good hints to be found. For example, on Friday, the U.K.-based Betfair exchange reported around $2.4 million in wagering on Trump to win in the previous 24 hours. Approximately $190 million had been staked on Betfair's U.S. election markets overall as of Friday.
🗣️ @BetfairSam is here to explain what has happened in the last two weeks to move the market firmly into the Donald Trump camp.
— Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 18, 2024
All of the above, though, is available in Ontario or the U.K., where operators can offer such markets. In the U.S., those betting options are totally off the menu. DraftKings, for instance, is taking wagers on the U.S. presidential election in Canada but not in its backyard.
However, there are a few alternative routes would-be U.S. election punters can go if they so choose, such as PredictIt and Iowa Electronic Markets. These two “experimental” prediction markets offer election-related contracts that can be bought and sold, albeit with restrictions on how much a user can purchase.
Another avenue for de facto election wagering in the U.S. — and one that has been in the news lately — is offered by prediction market operator Kalshi.
'Carte blanche'
Kalshi offers your basics, such as who will win the presidential election. But it also provides some spicier options like whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will get nominated to a Cabinet post. As of Friday afternoon, just shy of $15,000 had been staked in that market, although the total was climbing.
Donald Trump has hit a new all time high on Kalshi
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 17, 2024
🔴Trump: 58%
🔵Harris: 42% pic.twitter.com/aLN2Bmg0NE
Kalshi is also in the thick of a legal fight with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over the company’s election-related contracts. The regulator had tried to prohibit Kalshi from offering them, but the company has prevailed in court thus far.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit recently put the CFTC's case on a relatively fast track to a hearing, although that still won't occur until after the Nov. 5 election. Indeed, Kalshi's final brief doesn't have to be filed until Nov. 15.
In the meantime, betting has continued apace at Kalshi, which the CFTC claims can range from wagers of $1 to up to $100 million (albeit the latter limit is for institutional investors and certain wealthy clients). More than $30 million in presidential election-related contracts had been bought and sold on Kalshi as of Friday afternoon, but those aren't the only markets available.
“Kalshi has taken [a lower-court] decision as carte blanche to list dozens of election betting contracts, including bets on the outcome of the presidential election, the winner of the popular vote, margins of victory, which state will have the narrowest margin of victory, and bets on numerous other state and federal elections,” the CFTC said in a brief to the appeals court earlier this week. “Kalshi’s website previews other contracts, including what it refers to as ‘parlays’ (a term used in sports betting) on various election outcomes, as ‘coming soon.’”
While the CFTC sees this as concerning, Kalshi sees its election contracts as a tool even the stingiest punter can use to hedge against the uncertainty of politics, as well as a source of insight.
Kalshi opposed the CFTC's attempt to speed up the appeal, saying the agency "principally" repeated arguments it made in trying to stay a lower-court decision, such as warning of risks to election integrity that have yet to persuade the appeals judges.
The court process is still playing out. However, Kalshi is no longer the only contract market taking bets on the election.
Trading platform Interactive Brokers has launched "Forecast Contracts" such as whether Harris or Trump will win the election, or if Republican Kari Lake will win the Senate race in Arizona, among other things.
“Forecast Contracts allow investors to act on the most crucial issues shaping our future,” said Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, in a press release earlier this month. “These contracts give traders a direct line to market sentiment on elections, helping them manage risk or express views on political events.”
