Ohio State vs Notre Dame Predictions, Analysis & Live Updates

There's no shortage of stars in tonight's CFP National Championship, but few shine as bright as Jeremiah Smith. The Ohio State freshman hauled in 14 touchdowns during the regular season and Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley believes he'll find his way into the end zone again tonight.

"Smith is the best player on the field," he says. "He's 6-foot-3 but can burn anyone with his speed. He's also a nuanced route runner with a high football IQ and does a great job high-pointing the ball with great hands."

And while Andrew likes Smith, he LOVES the value he presents in tonight's anytime TD market. 

"He's going to be a big part of the game plan," he says. "Getting him to score a touchdown at -115 odds feels like a deal."

Read more of Andrew's Jeremiah Smith prop picks ahead of kickoff. 

The National Championship is here and both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are relatively healthy heading into this title tilt.

Ohio State has no key injuries coming into this matchup. The Buckeyes did lose offensive lineman Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin earlier in the season, but they have been playing without them for several weeks.

Notre Dame is a little more banged up, as left tackle Anthonie Knapp is out with an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, the Irish are getting a boost on offensive. Wide receiver Beaux Collins, the team's second-leading receiver, is listed as probable after suffering a calf injury in the Orange Bowl, while running back Jeremiyah Love isn’t listed on the injury report at all.

If Notre Dame falls behind by two scores in the second half, live betting Ohio State to win by a touchdown more than the current margin will make sense.

The Irish are not designed for comebacks. As impressive as it was that they came back from 10-0 against Penn State, let’s remember they tied the game on the first possession after halftime. Notre Dame never had to dial up its offense.

If the Irish trail by double digits in the third quarter, they do not have the needed explosive passing game. When Riley Leonard is dropping back, Buckeyes’ DEs Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau will rush the passer with their ears pinned back.

Notre Dame fans, in particular, should recognize this phenomenon. It is how Al Golden’s defense has turned so many 14-point margins into multiple defensive touchdowns in the last three years. When the Irish know their opponent is passing, their defense becomes that much more threatening.

All of that is true for this Ohio State defense, too. If Notre Dame falls behind by 10 or 14 in the third quarter, a live bet of Ohio State winning by 17 or 21, respectively, will be an unfortunate likelihood for anyone cheering for a competitive second half tonight.

It’s a well known fact that Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden plays man coverage more than any program in the country. That approach has worked well against less talented teams, but Covers Betting Analyst JD Yonke believes it's going to blow up in his face tonight against Jeremiah Smith, whom he's picking to go Over 64.5 receiving yards.

"Smith is a matchup nightmare for any team brave - or foolish - enough to play man against him," says. "He’s eclipsed 64.5 receiving yards in 11 of his team’s 15 games and will be especially potent any time he’s lined up against Christian Gray on the outside."

Teams like USC and Georgia relentlessly targeted Gray in coverage, and JD thinks Ohio State will do the same thing anytime he’s on an island.

"While Golden still likely mixes in zone coverages, the Irish got this far by being hyper-aggressive and trusting their guys to make plays," he says. "They won’t throw out the script overnight."

Read more of JD's musings in his Ohio State vs. Notre Dame same-game parlay picks.

Looking to cash in on tonight's matchup? You can get a 20% odds boost for one CFP National Championship Game bet courtesy of BetMGM.

This special offer is available for any bet with minimum odds of -300, and can be yours just by opting in and picking a winner.

For example, Andrew Caley's Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction is the Under 45.5 at -110. Using this boost, you can tail his bet — but get it at +109 odds instead!

Discover more Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds boosts before wagering on this evening's action.

2024 was a year of ups and downs for Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans, who slowly worked his way back from a torn ACL. He failed to eclipse 30 receiving yards in any of ND’s first nine games, but has since done so in three of his last six games. Covers Betting Analyst JD Yonke thinks he'll surpass that number again tonight.

"Evans is one of the best tight ends in college football and he’s been a key piece of this offense since returning to form," he says. "He racked up 422 receiving yards in seven games (60.3 per game) a year ago before the injury, a number more reflective of his talent."

He believes a combination of Notre Dame's offense AND Ohio State's D-line will propel Evans Over 29.5 receiving yards in the CFP Championship Game. 

"Fighting Irish OC Mike Denbrock’s offense isn’t heavily reliant on wide receivers for production," he explains, "and Ohio State’s disruptive front seven should force ND to rely on players like Evans on shallow routes. Add it all up and Evans is set for a breakout performance."

See more of JD's predictions and analysis in his Ohio State vs. Notre Dame same-game-parlay.

Live betting can be tricky, but here's an angle I like: If either of the opening two drives results in a touchdown, then the live Under should hold value.

It will not be a shock if Notre Dame or Ohio State finds success on its scripted drive. Indiana marched down the field against the Buckeyes to open their game in November and then gained approximately six yards the rest of the game before garbage time.

These are the two best defenses in the country. Live betting algorithms will raise the live total if either opening drive ends in a score, and that will be an overreaction.

So if the Buckeyes get the opening kickoff and score a touchdown seven plays later, go thank the sportsbook for a total north of 50. If Jeremiyah Love does a Kyren Williams-vs.-Clemson-in-2020 impression, say thank you again.

One of the big storylines tonight may be Notre Dame’s shifting offensive line, as the team has had a revolving door of players up front due to an assortment of injuries.

The Irish need to find ways to help their O-line against the best defensive line in college football, and Covers Betting Analyst Douglas Farmer believes that means keeping the ball in Riley Leonard's hands near the goal line.

"If Notre Dame can sustain a drive, it likely will ask its veteran quarterback to cap the drive," he explains. "Leonard's 39 red-zone carries lead the Irish, eight more than even star running back Jeremiyah Love has enjoyed."

He expects Leonard to find paydirt at least once tonight with Notre Dame using its running backs as additional blockers and/or putting defensive ends into conflict on read-option designs.

Read more of Douglas' Ohio State vs. Notre Dame anytime touchdown picks.

BetMGM is offering Notre Dame backers a very special odds boost ahead of game time. 

The popular sportsbook is boosting Notre Dame +10.5 + Under 50.5 from +165 to +200!

The consensus spread is 8.5 across the board, so we're gaining two points here (and crossing the key number of 10) for the first half of this boost, while the total is 45.5 at most outlets, giving us an additional six points to play with.

Conventional wisdom is that a larger underdog usually covers in a lower-scoring game, and with the other major books on this list are offering +125 to +146 for this combo — getting it at 2/1 represents a significant value over the next-best operator.

Ohio State boasts a pair of first rate running backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, and while both players have their merits, Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley is a bigger fan of the 22-year-old Henderson.

"This may be a hot take, but I think Henderson is the better back," he asserts. "He averaged 7.3 yards per carry this season and always seems to show up in Ohio State’s biggest games."

Caley expects Notre Dame to focus on stopping the pass, leaving holes for Henderson to run through and go Over 50 yards tonight.

"He’s hit this mark 12 times this season," he explains. "Because of the combination of skill and game script, I like him to do it again."

The traders at BetMGM aren't likely to be sweating the result of tonight's CFP National Championship Game. 

"If you include the futures market, we'll be fine with either team taking home the trophy, but Notre Dame moneyline betting will surely become an overall negative result by kickoff," says Michael Ranftle, Sportsbook Sr. Trader at BetMGM.

Curious to see how bettors are wagering ahead of kickoff? Here are the Top 5 most bet player props by ticket at BetMGM:

1. Jeremiyah Love Under 42.5 rushing yards (-115)
2. Emeka Egbuka Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
3. Aneyas Williams Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
4. Will Howard Over 245.5 passing yards (-115)
5. Jordan Faison Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

Find out why other sportsbooks are pulling for the Buckeyes ahead of tonight's game.

Ohio State scored 40 points or more in each of its first two playoff games, but Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley expects that trend to end tonight. 

"The Irish have the best pass defense in the country, leading the nation in EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks," he explains. "This will be key when it comes to shutting down OSU wide receiver Jeremiah Smith."

The true freshman phenom looked unstoppable in the first two rounds, but got locked up by Texas in the Cotton Bowl, resulting in just one catch and three yards.

"I expect the Irish will have a similar game plan in mind for the national championship," he says. "If Notre Dame has a shot at the upset, it’s by shortening this game and limiting Ohio State possessions. To me, this all adds up to a low-scoring game, so give me the Under 45.5." 

Read Andrew's full Ohio State vs. Notre prediction ahead of kickoff.

ESPN is pulling all the levers for tonight's championship game. The Worldwide Leader in Sports is delivering English and Spanish language broadcasts across the following platforms:

• ESPN
• ESPN2
• ESPN3
• ESPNews
• ESPNU
• ESPN Deportes
• ESPN+

Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will call the game on ESPN's main telecast, while Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath will provide breaking news and updates from the sidelines.

The broadcast will reportedly feature 100 different cameras, including cameras inside all eight endzone pylons, goal line robotic cams, and MindFly BodyCams on three on-field officials. It promises to be the most immersive viewing experience ever seen for a college football matchup.

Cord-cutters can also enjoy the broadcast on Fubo. Learn how to live stream Ohio State vs. Notre Dame for free.

They say that good things come to those who wait, and that's certainly true this evening as the Ohio State Buckeyes face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the 2025 CFP National Championship Game. 

This is the longest college football fans have had to stand by to see a champion crowned owing to this year's newly expanded 12-team playoff format. However, few are complaining about the wait as tonight's marquee matchup features two of the nation's most decorated - and battle-tested - programs. 

The No. 8 Buckeyes punched their ticket to the title game with lopsided wins over Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas, while the No. 7 Irish cruised past Indiana and Georgia before squeaking by Penn State in the Orange Bowl. 

Covers is counting down to kickoff with our freshly updated live blog. Check back regularly for breaking news and the best NCAAF picks ahead of game time at 7:30 p.m. ET.