Live NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks for Bears vs Lions & More
The NFL has given us three reasons to be especially thankful today with a trio of top-tier Turkey Day games. Get ready to gobble-gobble up our picks before the action unfolds.
A turkey wears a Detroit Lions helmet during the NFL game on Thanksgiving.
Key Events (6)
Live Updates (8)
Bears vs Lions Live Betting
The Lions looked sharp in the first quarter, racing out to a decisive 10-0 lead. I like the Under 47.5 at bet365 given how Detroit has been chewing up the clock with its ground game and third-down conversions. The Lions are 4-5 on third down efficiency so far and have had the ball for more than 13 minutes.
Give it to Gibbs
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs takes off in the open field.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 71.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Jahmyr Gibbs has been the Lion's big play back all season and Covers NFL expert Ed Scimia expects that trend to continue today.
"Gibbs has gone for 70+ yards in four of his last six games and hasn’t finished with fewer than 63 yards since Week 1," he explains. "Just last week against Indianapolis, we saw the Lions give Gibbs the ball 21 times. Barring a stunning effort from the Bears that forces Detroit into throwing the ball from behind, the Over is the play on Gibbs."
Gibbs ranks fourth in the NFL with 886 rushing yards, and — including his one touchdown reception — is tied for the team lead with Montgomery at 11 touchdowns.
Read Ed's Bears vs. Lions prop picks for more analysis.
Goff Goes Under
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff prepares to throw deep against the Bears.
Jared Goff Under 30.5 passing attempts (-128 at FanDuel)
Jared Goff has exceeded expectations in his fourth season with Detroit, although the three-time Pro Bowler is leaning on the Lions' ground game more than ever. He's surpassed 30.5 passing attempts just twice all season, and Covers NFL expert Sam Farley believes he'll go Under that number again today.
"This is a good Chicago defense against the pass, but the Bears are in the bottom half against the run, an area in which we know the Lions shine," he says. "The Lions have such a dominant ground game they won’t need to pass much — especially given they’re 9.5-point favorites."
Goff has 20 touchdown passes and a QB Rating of 109.9 through the first 12 weeks of the season.
Knuckles Will Come Knocking
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery fights through a tackle.
David Montgomery anytime touchdown (-175 at FanDuel)
David Montgomery may not be as explosive as Jahmyr Gibbs, but he gets nearly as many carries as his Lions running mate and has a nose for the end zone. "Knuckles" already has 11 touchdowns on the ground this season and Covers NFL expert Ed Scimia believes he'll add to that tally today.
"Montgomery has also been given the ball more regularly in short-yardage situations, where his physicality and ability to break tackles allows him to pick up important first downs and touchdowns near the goal line," Scimia says. "Expect the Lions to find themselves near the goal line on a few occasions on Thanksgiving, which should guarantee that Montgomery gets into the end zone at least once."
Montgomery has scored touchdowns in each of his last three games and nine of the Lions’ 11 games overall this season.
Read Ed's Bears vs. Lions prop picks for more in-depth analysis.
Fade the Public?
Casual bettors tend to come out of the woodworks on Thanksgiving. Covers Senior Betting Analyst Jason Logan thinks you should be wary of following public sentiment on Turkey Day.
Key In on Keenan
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) celebrates after catching a 9-yard touchdown pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Keenan Allen anytime touchdown (+270 at FanDuel)
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen caught one of his two red-zone targets for a touchdown last week against the Minnesota Vikings, and Covers betting analyst Neil Parker believes he'll hit paydirt again today against the Bears.
"I'm looking Allen’s way in this tough matchup because of his crisp route running and recent connection with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams," he explains. "Additionally, I’m expecting Allen to have easier one-on-one matchups against Detroit cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson, while Carlton Davis primarily lines up opposite Bears wide-out DJ Moore."
Allen is off the injury report after being dubbed questionable with an ankle injury for Week 12.
Read Neil's Bears vs. Lions anytime touchdown picks for more predictions ahead of kickoff.
Act Swiftly
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift (4) stiff arms Minnesota Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman (51).
D'Andre Swift Over 13.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
D'Andre Swift is more than just Chicago's top running back, he's also one of the team's most capable pass catchers. The veteran Pro Bowler has recorded 22 or more receiving yards in seven of his 11 games this season, and Covers betting analyst Neil Parker believes he'll have another big outing today.
"With the Chicago Bears double-digit road underdogs, I expect them to be in a lot of passing situations against the Detroit Lions," he explains. "The Lions also have the fourth-highest quarterback pressure percentage and PFF pass-rush grade, so QB Caleb Williams turning to Swift multiple times through the air is a means to help mitigate the Detroit pass rush."
The Lions have already allowed seven running backs to record 23 or more receiving yards through 11 games, and Swift appears poised to raise that tally to eight today.
Read Neil's Bears vs. Lions predictions for more in-depth analysis.
Let the Games Begin!
A fan dressed as a turkey looks forward to the Thanksgiving Day game during the second half between the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Betting is to football as gravy is to mashed potatoes. You can get plenty of all of those things this Thanksgiving Thursday.
The NFL holds its annual trio of games on the holiday, kicking off with the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m. ET) and followed by the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET), and the Miami Dolphins at the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET).
If you’re planning to plunk yourself down on the sofa for 11 hours of NFL betting, we’ll saddle up right next to you.
Covers’ NFL Thanksgiving live blog will be dishing out scoops of gambling goodness for those three matchups, including odds insights, injury and weather updates, best bets, and plenty of NFL picks and predictions for Thursday's action.
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