Two of the best teams in the majors face off on Saturday with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Houston Astros. The defending World Series champion Astros have the fourth-best odds to win it all again at +850 while the Dodgers are just ahead of them on the World Series odds at +650.
Both sides are sending a rookie pitcher to the mound today and with L.A.'s Bobby Miller having the far better track record, MLB odds opened with L.A. as -175 a home favorite. Here are my free Astros vs. Dodgers MLB picks for June 24.
Astros vs Dodgers odds
Astros vs Dodgers predictions
The Houston Astros have consistently been one of the best offensive teams in the majors over the last several years, but they've struggled at the dish this season. They are 19th in OPS (.714), 24th in barrel rate (7.3%), and 23rd in hard-hit rate (38.7%). Those struggling bats could be even worse over the next few weeks with their best slugger Yordan Alvarez sidelined by an oblique injury.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are missing one of their top sluggers as well with Max Muncy out until early July. However, they have a deeper lineup with even more productive batters such as Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez, who all hit for power like Muncy but also make better contact than the third baseman.
The Dodgers are tied for fourth in the majors in OPS (.768) while ranking second in barrel rate (10.2%), and third in hard-hit rate (42.7%).
Bobby Miller was called up by the Dodgers a month ago and looked incredible in his first four starts, pitching to a 0.78 ERA with 0.83 WHIP. He came crashing down to earth in his previous outing last Saturday when he was shelled for seven runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Giants.
There might be some questions about whether that performance against San Fran meant teams have figured him out or if it was just an outlier. I'm leaning toward the latter. After all, it's pretty tough to figure out a guy that throws a two-seamer at 98.6 mph and averages 99.4 mph on his four-seamer... while also boasting a plus slider and changeup that opposing batters have a whiff rate of more than 36% against.
The Astros are sending another rookie Ronel Blanco to the mound but the 29-year-old doesn't have anywhere near the stuff or the production of Miller. In three career starts (all this month) he has pitched to a 4.76 ERA with a .266 OBA.
Not only does Blanco have one of the worst barrel rates in the majors, he also has terrible control with nine walks in 17 innings across those three starts. In fact, even though he allowed just five hits in 16 innings at Triple A Sugarland last month, he walked 13 batters. That's bad news against a stacked L.A. lineup that ranks second in the majors in walk rate.
With the Dodgers boasting the better lineup and the superior starter at home, it makes sense that they're big favorites in this one. That said, their bullpen has been tough to trust with their relievers ranked 27th in the majors in ERA (4.83) and that number has soared to 5.67 this month.
I'd prefer to avoid that vulnerable bullpen and grab Los Angeles on the run line through the first five innings.
My best bet: Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-140 at PointsBet)
Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Dodgers F5 -0.5
Freeman 2+ TB
Martinez Over 0.5 RBI
If you saw a common theme in the above breakdown it was probably "fade Blanco" and that's exactly what I'm looking to do with this parlay. Both Freeman and Martinez have struggled lately, which has been factored into their player props and gives a better payout on these plays than there would normally be.
Freeman is slashing .229/.329/.429 this month but the three-time Silver Slugger recipient is simply one of the best hitters in the game. Despite his recent cold streak, Freeman is still third in the majors in total bases (164) and should be able to get on track against Blanco.
Martinez is batting just .206 this month but he's a proven slugger that has driven in 48 runs in just 59 games this year. With Freeman and Betts having a good chance of getting on base today, his RBI prop has plenty of value.
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Astros vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened as -180 favorites at most books and that line has stayed relatively steady.
The Astros are tied for the fourth-best record in the AL at 41-35. However, they are just 2-6 in their last eight games and lost 3-2 to the L.A. last night as -143 favorites.
The Stros have been underachieving at the plate but have also been decimated by injuries to their rotation, which is why Blanco has been added. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are done for the year with elbow injuries while Jose Urquidy is sidelined until late July.
The Dodgers have several starting pitchers injured as well with Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard, and Dustin May all on the IL. Luckily for them, Miller is one of the top prospects in baseball and (with the exception of his last start) has looked dominant.
The O/U opened at 9.0 but the Over on that number is now paying out at around +100 with some books ticking down to 8.5. It's worth mentioning that the Dodgers have struggled at the plate lately and are averaging just 3.73 runs per game with an OPS of .638 over the last 15 days.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers are 109-44 in their last 153 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Dodgers
Astros vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, June 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Ronel Blanco (1-0, 4.66 ERA): The 29-year-old rookie pitched 6 1/3 innings in relief last year and began this year working out of the bullpen as well before being demoted to the minors at the beginning of May. After a pair of outstanding starts at Triple A Sugarland he was called back up this month and brought into the rotation. In three starts since being recalled, he has pitched to a 4.76 ERA. Blanco is in the bottom 15th percentile in expected ERA (5.84) and expected slugging percentage (.484).
Bobby Miller (3-1, 2.83 ERA): Miller entered this season ranked as the No. 17 overall prospect in baseball. He certainly lived up to those expectations in his first four career starts before getting lit up by the Giants last week. The 24-year-old needs to display better control and be less predictable with his pitches, but he ranks in the Top 15th percentile in xERA (3.01) and xSLG (.319).
