The Cleveland Guardians have already clinched the AL Central but there is still a lot to play for — they sit one game back of the New York Yankees for top spot in the AL. Grabbing the No. 1 seed very much remains on the table if they can have a successful series against the Houston Astros.
My Astros vs. Guardians predictions see a red-hot Cleveland side taking care of business at home, with superstar Jose Ramirez leading the charge.
Let’s break it down further with my September 27 MLB picks.
Astros vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Death, taxes, and Cleveland Guardians superstar Jose Ramirez clearing his H+R+RBI line at home. He has averaged 2.8 per game in Cleveland this season and produced at least two in 51 of 76 games. That equates to an absurd 67% success rate yet he’s being priced as if there’s a 56% chance he gets the job done.
He enters the series opener in fine form at the plate, having piled up 24 H+R+RBI over the last five games. That’s nearly five per contest.
Ramirez is chasing down a big milestone as he plays out the stretch of the regular season. He is currently sitting at 38 homers, just one shy of matching his career high and two short of surpassing it.
Ramirez has stolen 40 bases this season as well. With a late power surge, he could join the prestigious 40/40 club.
Backing one of the best hitters in the sport on home soil is always an attractive proposition. I see even more value in doing so considering the Guardians are still going full speed ahead while the Houston Astros are not.
They can’t move up or down in the standings and could be rather conservative with their usage of players in this series — be it resting key players, lowering the pitch counts on starters, or trying to preserve their best relievers.
Although Ronel Blanco is generally not a pitcher to target, he has looked a little more hittable of late, conceding six hits or more in four of his past nine starts after doing so only four times through his first 20.
It’s also worth noting Blanco allows a higher average, and more power, against left-handed bats, and the switch-hitting Ramirez should swing from that side of the plate vs. a righty like Blanco.
Astros vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Steven Kwan Over 0.5 hits
Guardians moneyline
Steven Kwan is a Ramirez-esque hit machine. Kwan’s picked up at least a hit in 72% of his games in Cleveland this season, putting him only a few percentage points behind Ramirez (75%).
We’re backing Ramirez's H+R+RBI line and, in theory, he probably needs to drive in a runner to get the job done. Kwan is likely to be that guy as an elite contact hitter who sets the table for the Guardians at the top of the order.
If Ramirez and Kwan are making noise at the plate, the Guardians have a great chance of winning the game and I like the value produced by correlating the three legs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Guardians odds
Astros vs Guardians live odds
Astros vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +105 | Cleveland -125
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-200) | Cleveland -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Astros vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians are trading as -117 favorites after opening -114 on Pinnacle.
- We have seen some movement with the total. At bet365 it dropped from 8.0 runs to 7.5 but quickly jumped back to 8.0.
- The Guardians have hit the moneyline in 92 of their last 159 games (+13.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- Cleveland has won three consecutive games started by left-hander Joey Cantillo.
Astros vs Guardians trend
Jose Ramirez has averaged 3.1 H+R+R over his past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Guardians.
Astros vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (12-6, 2.88 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Joey Cantillo (2-3, 4.63 ERA) |
Astros vs Guardians latest injuries
Astros vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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