Adding third baseman Isaac Paredes has been a spark for the Chicago Cubs offense, and the North Siders face inexperienced lefty Brady Basso of the Oakland Athletics in Wednesday afternoon’s series finale at Wrigley Field.
My top MLB picks and Athletics vs. Cubs predictions are calling for Basso to have a tough time navigating the Chicago lineup on September 18.
A's vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Cubs team total Over 4.5 (+122 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs offense has been humming since the All-Star break, and in particular against left-handed pitching since the acquisition of third baseman Isaac Paredes. Chicago is up to a .325 wOBA and .318 on-base percentage against southpaws since Paredes joined the club on July 28, compared to respective .299 and .310 marks to start the campaign.
Chicago has also plated 5.53 runs per game in September with a fourth-ranked wOBA (.337) and third-ranked OBP (.346), and the Cubbies draw an inexperienced lefty making just his third start in the bigs on Wednesday afternoon.
Oakland Athletics starter Brady Basso has been excellent in his first two starts and hasn’t allowed a run across 11 1/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, but his 5.19 ERA and 4.26 xFIP across 67 2/3 innings at Triple A suggest he took advantage of a pair of basement-dwelling lineups. As highlighted, the Cubs are sending out a lineup packing a touch more punch.
Basso has also allowed a meaty 45.2 hard-hit rate in his brief time in the majors, and his average fastball velocity of 92.4 mph isn’t overpowering. Add that both his .244 BABIP and 94.8% strand rate are unsustainable, and I’m expecting the Cubs to have success against Basso.
Finally, Oakland utilized an opener on Monday and needed five relievers to finish the final four innings Tuesday, so an already-struggling bullpen might not have a top option or two available for the series finale. The Athletics sport a 27th-ranked 5.29 bullpen ERA over the past 30 days, too.
A's vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs team total Over 4.5
Cubs -1.5
Brady Basso Over 2.5 earned runs
All three of these same-game parlay legs are correlated and align with Basso set to face his toughest start in the majors. Holding the Tigers and White Sox in check is fine, but the two clubs also respectively rank 25th and 30th against southpaws in wOBA.
On the flip side, Cubs starter Justin Steele has established himself as one of the most reliable starters with an eighth-ranked 3.10 ERA and 18th-ranked 3.41 xFIP among qualified starters over the past three seasons. Additionally, the Athletics enter averaging just 3.56 runs per game with the fourth-highest K% in baseball in September.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
A's vs Cubs odds
A's vs Cubs live odds
A's vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Oakland +137 | Chicago -149
- Run line: Oakland +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
A's vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been considerable steam to the Chicago side of this moneyline across the board. Pinnacle opened with Cubs -149 and are hanging -165 odds as of Wednesday morning.
- bet365 has moved all the way to Cubs -180 after opening at -150.
- This total hasn’t seen nearly as much action, with both Pinnacle and bet365 remaining at 7.5.
- Pinnacle opened with the Over 7.5 carrying +103 odds and it’s at -105 as of Wednesday morning.
A's vs Cubs trend
Chicago has averaged 5.53 runs per game with a fourth-ranked wOBA (.337) and third-ranked OBP (.346) in September. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Cubs.
A's vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS California, Marquee |
| A's starting pitcher: | Brady Basso (1-0, 1.23 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (5-5, 3.09 ERA) |
A's vs Cubs latest injuries
A's vs Cubs weather
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