Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, October 2.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 2
Fried u17.5 outs recorded (+135)
Lugo u4.5 hits allowed (-109)
Musgrove u4.5 hits allowed (+110)
Today’s best SP angles
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres
The angle: The Braves bullpen is a mess, but they are one loss away from being eliminated and if Max Fried doesn't have it, he will be pulled regardless.
Books are terrified to open outs markets in Game 2 as only Sean Manaea and Max Fried have totals listed. Fried's is the biggest at a whopping 17.5 with plus money to the Under. The only reason for this price is the Atlanta Braves bullpen is used and abused. But guess what? If Fried stumbles, the visitors are going to the bullpen because they need a win.
The Atlanta starter has gone Over the 17.5 outs in six straight starts but with the season on the line, those numbers might not carry over to Game 2. So much has to go right to go 18 outs in the playoffs when your team is down 1-0 in a best-of-three. In his postseason career, Fried is 6-5 O/U on this number but 1-4 O/U in his last five postseason starts.
He's seen San Diego once this year at home and went 13 outs on 88 pitches after giving up three runs on nine hits with three walks. I'd play this to even money.
The move: Max Fried Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at bet365)
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles
The angle: Seth Lugo is coming into today's start on 4 days of rest after throwing just 36 pitches on Saturday.
The Kansas City Royals could get creative today as they look to eliminate the Baltimore Orioles, who have lost nine straight playoff games. Seth Lugo might have a full leash, but there are more outcomes where he doesn't, and some of those paths could still come with him pitching well.
Lugo is paying -115 for Under 4.5 hits allowed. The Orioles managed just four hits vs. yesterday's starter Cole Ragans, who was dealing but was also pulled at just 80 pitches. If that's the leash manager Matt Quatraro is giving his ace, Lugo could be on a tighter output. Granted, Ragans was dealing with left calf cramps, but he expects to be ready for his next start.
Lugo can get this Under 4.5 hits on 18 outs, though, if needed but 80 pitches might be the limit today as Quatraro could easily get creative again today. Lugo could get pulled with a quick hook if he gets hit early, for example. There are a lot of paths for the Under here and his Under 4.5 hits is a buy for me to -135.
The move: Seth Lugo Under 4.5 hits allowed (-109 at Caesars)
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Joe Musgrove has allowed just 36 hits over his last 50 innings and might have a shorter leash today.
Joe Musgrove is paying plus money for his Under 4.5 hits allowed and considering he has hit this Under in six of his last nine and might not have a long leash today, it's an easy play for me to -115. San Diego got a great start from Michael King, who went 21 outs last night and kept this Padres bullpen fresh.
There are a lot of scenarios where Musgrove sees five innings or 80 pitches, which would give a ton of value to his Unders, including hits allowed. King gave up five hits over seven innings and 89 pitches but with an elite bullpen ready to go, there could be a plan already put in to get the relievers in around the sixth inning with a date with the NLDS on the line.
Musgrove can get there on a full leash but the likely shorter outing only gives this Under more outs.
The move: Joe Musgrove Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at bet365)
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