Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, September 11.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 11
Bradford u17.5 outs recorded (-115)
Kelly u17.5 outs recorded (+155)
Baz u15.5 outs recorded (-125)
Bermudez 3+ strikeouts (+160)
Today’s best SP angles
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Cody Bradford is not a sub-1.00 WHIP pitcher and faces the No.1 offense.
Cody Bradford has been punching above his numbers of late with a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts with just 20 hits allowed over 32+ innings. He has hit the Over on his 17.5 outs market in all five outings but he has also faced Oakland, the Angels, and Pittsburgh in three of those games. Today, he has his biggest test vs. the No.1 offenses over the last 30 days in the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He projects for 15.7 outs on 87 pitches from THE BAT. His Stuff+ is below average and his .222 BABIP is unsustainable.
Arizona also handles lefties well with the No. 5 wRC+ over the last 30 days while the Texas Rangers bullpen is very fresh after getting Monday off and using only two arms yesterday.
The move: Cody Bradford Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115 at BetRivers)
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Merrill Kelly is paying big bucks for Under 17.5 outs.
Merrill Kelly has gone 17 or fewer outs in three of his five starts since returning to the lineup. He is coming off a great start vs. the Giants but had also allowed 16 runs and six home runs before that. Bettors are getting +155 for his Under 17.5 outs and although it might be a little worse than a coin flip, the price is hard to turn down.
The Rangers have been a surprise without Corey Seager, sporting a Top-10 offense over the last seven days.
Arizona is in a dogfight for a Wild Card with three other teams and and can't risk leaving Kelly in too long considering how he was pitching just two starts ago. Every middle reliever is also available today in the bullpen. I struggle to pass up these bets at these prices.
The move: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 outs recorded (+155 at bet365)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: Shane Baz is coming off a season-high 103 pitches.
Shane Baz has only thrown 94 innings this year but that's 94 innings more than last season and 50+ more than 2022. He is also coming off a season-high 103 pitches, which represented 20 more pitches than his season average entering that start. He has a tough matchup in Philadelphia while his bullpen is fresh after the Tampa Bay Rays stubbornly left Taj Bradley in too long yesterday despite giving up four runs.
Baz projects for Under 15 outs today on 82 pitches and is paying -115 at bet365. There could be a chance he has a five-inning limit today coming off a big workload and pitching in his first season after TJ surgery. His 23 walks over 55 innings is also a red flag for efficiency. I'd play this down to -135.
The move: Shane Baz Under 15.5 outs (-115 at bet365)
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The angle: Jonathan Bermudez is being priced as a one-inning opener but might go longer. Ladder opportunity?
Miami Marlins lefty Jonathan Bermudez is a swing reliever, meaning he is capable of throwing multiple innings. He might have just thrown on Sunday, but that was just 26 pitches and might have been done just to get him some work and stretch him out. He threw 3 2/3 innings on August 27 where he struck out three and walked none. If he goes three or more innings today, his milestone strikeouts market is a really good look.
There is a lot of variance here as he could go one inning, but his 3+ Ks is +160. Plus money is variance's best friend and that's what we have here. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a heavy K% team and the ladder to four Ks (+400) and even 5+ (+850) are worth some sprinkles. Remember, he could see just six batters but that's what is being priced. There is a chance he goes through the order twice. It's also an afternoon game, so that means a weaker lineup.
The move: Jonathan Bermudez 3+ strikeouts (+160 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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