We’ve got 15 games on today’s MLB betting slate, including the first of a three-game set between the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.
The magic number for Jays pitcher Bowden Francis is 2.5.
He’s gone Under 2.5 earned runs in 12 of his last 13 starts, and I expect him to continue to dominate on the mound tonight against the Orioles and go below that number once again.
Read on for my MLB picks and Blue Jays predictions for Friday, April 11.
Blue Jays predictions for April 11
- Best bet
Bowden Francis Under 2.5 runs
(-138 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Bowden Francis U 2.5 earned runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Under 8.5
(+400 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Bowden the Bird Hunter
Pick: Bowden Francis Under 2.5 earned runs (-138 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays fly into Camden Yards to start a three-game set tonight.
The Baltimore Orioles are sending Tomoyoki Sugano to the mound while Bowden Francis takes the ball for the Jays.
Francis has picked up right where he left off last season. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch, allowing just 10 earned runs over his final 10 starts.
One of those starts was against Baltimore, where he tossed 5.2 innings of three-hit baseball, giving up just two runs.
That’s been the key number for Francis, as he hasn't allowed more than two runs in five straight starts, hitting his Under (2.5 earned runs) in all five of those games.
Moreover, he’s 12-1 to the Under over his last 13 outings dating back to last year’s MLB trade deadline.
Francis has continued to pitch well early in his 2025 season with a 1-1 record, racking up 10 strikeouts, while allowing just two runs in each of his first two starts of the year.
As for the Orioles, they’re averaging 2.3 runs per game against starting pitching to this point in the season and have been held to under 2.5 runs in eight of their 13 games this season.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Bowden Francis Under 2.5 earned runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Under 8.5 runs
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll stick with the best bet theme and fade offense by taking the Under on Bowden Francis’ earned-run line of 2.5.
Next up, the Under is 10-0 in the Blue Jays last 10 games and has hit in three of the last four for the Orioles. Let’s bet this game to go Under 8.5 runs as the second leg of the SGP.
For the final leg, I’ll bet on one bat today, and that’ll be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s, and take him to go Over 1.5 total bases.
He’s gone Over this number in five of his last seven games. The Jays slugger also has a .363 batting average and a 1.009 OPS% at Camden Yards, averaging 2.4 bases per game in Baltimore.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Friday, April 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (1-1, 3.18 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano (1-1, 2.89 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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