The Toronto Blue Jays evened their series with the Philadelphia Phillies in dramatic fashion.
Alejandro Kirk smoked a liner off the wall to score Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and walk-off the Phillies. It was the Jays' seventh win in their last nine games, and now they go for the series win in Thursday’s matinee.
It’s an intriguing matchup as two good but struggling pitchers face off in Chris Bassitt and Jesus Luzardo. My Blue Jays predictions break it all down and bring you a best bet for this interleague showdown.
Blue Jays predictions for June 5
- Best bet
Over 8.5
(+100 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Over 8.5
Bryce Harper Under 0.5 Hits
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Runs
(+750 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Runs Galore!
Over 8.5 (+100 at BetVictor)
The Philadelphia Phillies struck first in this series, out-slugging the Toronto Blue Jays 8-3, before the Jays evened up the series, winning a pitchers' duel, culminating in a walkoff win in the bottom of the ninth.
So, what should we expect for Thursday’s finale?
Well, this is an intriguing matchup of starting pitchers. Both guys were dealing to start the season, but have had a few hiccups more recently.
Chris Bassitt was the Blue Jays' most reliable starter for the first two months of the season, pitching to a 2.83 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP while striking out 25% of opposing batters. But he’s been rocked in his last two outings.
The right-hander surrendered five runs on nine hits against the Tampa Bay Rays, and followed that up with five runs on seven hits last time out against the Athletics.
The Phillies won’t make a bounce-back easy. Philly enters this matchup ranked fifth in batting average, seventh in OPS, and ninth in wRC+.
Countering Bassitt is Jesus Luzardo. The left-hander has looked like a great acquisition for the Phillies this offseason. Luzardo was pitching to a 2.15 ERA and hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in the first 11 starts of the season.
Then he got obliterated by the Milwaukee Brewers when he last took the mound. The Brew Crew tagged him for a whopping 12 runs on 12 hits in just 3 1/3 innings pitched.
You can certainly give him the benefit of the doubt, but the Blue Jays have been very effective against southpaws this season. Toronto ranks fifth in batting average and seventh in both OPS and wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers this season.
The Blue Jays lineup has been much better overall lately and the Phillies lineup is one of the deepest in baseball.
I’m betting the lineups don’t let the starters shake off their slumps and send this game Over the total.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Bryce Harper Under 0.5 Hits
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Runs
Let’s mess with the same-game parlay algorithm a bit. While I’m betting this game to go Over the total it doesn’t mean everyone has to have a big game.
The one Phillies hitter who has struggled against Bassitt might surprise you – Bryce Harper. The Phillies slugger is 1-for-11 with four strikeouts in his career vs. Bassitt. That works out to a .197 expected batting average. Let’s add Harper to go hitless in today’s matchup.
But someone’s got to score runs in this one, and no one scores more runs for the Blue Jays than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., scoring 36 times this season.
Vladdy should be on base thanks to his 99th percentile xBA and his success vs. lefties. And thanks to guys like Alejandro Kirk and George Springer being more productive he’s been scoring at a high rate. In fact, he’s crossed the plate in 24 of his last 33 games overall. Let’s bet Vladdy to score again.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Thursday, June 5, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (5-3, 3.80 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (5-1, 3.57 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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