The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox begin a four-game series at Fenway Park on Monday night.
The Blue Jays have gotten off to a strong start to the season, but their 18-10 record is good for just third place in the highly competitive AL East. The Red Sox are tied for fourth in the division with a 15-14 mark and will look to make up ground.
MLB odds opened with the Jays as -145 road favorites, and the Over/Under is at 10 for tonight’s clash. Here are my best free Blue Jays vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for May 1.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
While the Red Sox are seventh in the majors in OPS (.769), their middling hard-hit rate (13th in the majors) and barrel rate (17th) suggest regression is incoming. The Blue Jays are 13th in the majors in OPS (.741), but they are fourth in barrel rate. It's clear that they have the more dangerous lineup, especially at the top.
Matt Chapman leads the majors with an OPS of 1.152, while Bo Bichette is batting .317 with a team-high six homers. And don't forget about superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the mix as well.
The Jays also have the edge on the mound. Although Jose Berrios struggled in his first couple of starts this year, he has been very effective in his last three, and his FIP sits at just 2.37.
On the other hand, the Red Sox have the unreliable Corey Kluber on the hill. Kluber has really fallen off from his Cy Young days, and has a 6.75 ERA while pitching to an expected slugging percentage of .504. The 38-year-old relies primarily on off-speed pitches at this point in his career and allows way too much contact.
Toronto has dominated head-to-head against Boston lately, going 9-0 in the last nine games overall while winning eight in a row at Fenway. They'll drop one eventually, but that won't be tonight.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-163 at Sports Interaction)
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis
The Jays are coming off a 10-8 loss last night which snapped a six-game winning streak. This is a solid team with some dangerous hitters and a few studs in their rotation. There's a reason that they were favorites in six of their last seven games, and were a pick'em in the other.
Berrios has been a bit of a disappointment since the Jays traded for him in 2021, but he's not as bad as last year's 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP would suggest. He pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 133 starts between 2017 and 2021. While he has a 4.71 ERA this year, his FIP sits at just 2.37, while his WHIP is at 1.08.
The BoSox are coming off a 7-1 rout of the Guardians, and are 4-4 in their last eight games. They have a decent lineup anchored by Rafael Devers, but the offseason departures of Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez hurt.
Young centerfielder Jarren Duran is batting .396 through 13 games, but he has an expected batting average of .271, so don't expect that to last. Alex Verdugo is also putting together a career year, but the Red Sox could really use Trevor Story, who won't be healthy until at least July.
We've already mentioned Kluber's struggles, as the 38-year-old is on the downslope of his career and ranks in the Bottom 30th percentile of the majors in expected batting average, barrel rate, and strikeout rate.
Boston's bullpen was supposed to be a strength of this team, but injuries have been a major issue. The Red Sox have also struggled in the field and rarely make big plays while ranking 25th in errors per game.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis
While both starters are coming off quality starts, they've been volatile this season. That fact, combined with capable bats on both sides, has led to a lofty total of 10.
The Red Sox are third in the majors in scoring with 5.62 runs per game, which is a bit surprising given how reliant they were on Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez last season.
Analytics certainly suggest that they're due for regression when it comes to scoring, and it's worth mentioning that even in a down year, Berrios pitched well against them in 2022.
The right-hander made three starts against Boston last year, allowing 18 hits and 5 runs in 19 innings.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, May 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.71 ERA): Berrios was rocked in his first two games this season, giving up 15 hits and 12 runs in 9 2/3 innings against the Royals and Angels. He's been much sharper since, giving up just 11 hits and three runs across 19 innings in his last three starts. Berrios is coming off his best performance of the season, fanning nine batters in seven innings of shutout ball against the White Sox.
Corey Kluber (1-4, 6.75 ERA): Kluber went 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA and a .274 OBA in 31 starts with Tampa Bay last season. His OBA (.250) hasn't been quite as bad this season, but his ERA and expected ERA (5.26) have been far worse. However, he's also coming off his best start of the year, throwing six innings of one-run ball against the Orioles.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 meetings with the Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
