The Atlanta Braves are never out of any game and they proved that again yesterday in their come-from-behind win vs. the Diamondbacks. Now the No.1 team in the league and outright betting favorite opens up a three-game set vs. the Milwaukee Brewers in Wisconsin. Mike Soroka opposes Freddy Peralta as a slight -125 MLB odds favorite with a total of 9.
With Soroka being discounted as he works back from multiple Achilles injuries and the Brewers’ offense not made to win slugfests, is the square play the right play tonight at American Family Field?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Brewers for Friday, July 21.
Braves vs Brewers odds
Braves vs Brewers predictions
Mike Soroka’s numbers might not look good on the surface, but this was an elite pitcher in 2019 with a 2.53 ERA before an Achilles injury derailed his progress during the COVID season. He’s a great command pitcher (6.5% BB rate) and has his legs back under him since being off from baseball in 2020.
Over his last three appearances (two starts and one relief appearance), the young right-hander has a 14/3 K:BB rate over 13-plus innings with just five runs allowed. That’s a small sample size but more indicative of the pitcher he is and the one he’s not being priced as.
This is a good matchup for the Braves starter, too. The Brewers are missing some middle-of-the-order hitters and are one of the highest K% teams in baseball, ranking 27th wRC+. This is not a great offense and a team that's building success on winning low-scoring games thanks to a great bullpen.
There are plenty of markets that look great for Soroka including his Under 1.5 walks at -125, Under 2.5 earned runs at -120, and Under 5.5 hits allowed at -155, but because of the variance, this is a great spot to take his Over 4.5 Ks at plus money while also looking at laddering his strikeouts.
bet365 has his 7-plus Ks at +500 and is a number he has already hit this year vs. Miami yet he’s likely a better pitcher today than back in June. The best price for his straight Over 4.5 Ks is +115 at bet365, and although THE BAT doesn’t love his strikeout markets, a lot of that is due to his projected leash. However, Soroka has thrown 98 and 99 pitches in his last two starts, and if he were to get to 18 outs, that K projection would jump to 4.81 at those K/out rates.
Versus this strikeout-heavy offense, getting five strikeouts seems probable, and at plus money for five Ks over 5-plus innings, I’ll take that every day. He needed just 30 pitches to get through nine outs on Sunday and if he can be efficient, five at this price could seem like a long number.
His milestone Overs are in play and because he is being discounted, he is a great ladder target. If I were to ladder him (and I might), I’d go 1 unit on Over 4.5 at +115, 0.5 units on 6-plus (+250), 0.3 units at 7-plus (+500), and 0.2 units at 8-plus for +1,000. That's two total units in bets that could yield six net units.
His injury history creates some variance, but the matchup and recent pitch counts are encouraging. With high variance angles, bettors should always be looking for plus money.
My best bet: Mike Soroka Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115)
Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay
Soroka 7-plus strikeouts (+500)
Atlanta team total Over 4.5 (-125)
Soroka Under 2.5 walks allowed (-210)
With the high variance of a Soroka start, I'm going for a bigger SGP that is not far-fetched considering the +1,400 odds.
Milwaukee's a great team to target for Ks and with the books projecting a shorter outing for the Atlanta starter, there's some value if he gets a full leash. He's thrown 95-plus pitches twice over his last three starts so it isn't unimaginable that he gets 95 today.
The Braves are a threat to hit the Over on any team total and are 22-8 O/U on it over their last 30 games for a +36% ROI.
The Under 2.5 walks is showing massive value today, per THE BAT, which is projecting 1.56 total walks. Soroka got plenty of his command back in his last outing, needing just 30 pitches to get nine outs on Sunday.
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Braves vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Bettors are getting a discount on the Braves today thanks to a starting pitching matchup that favors the Brewers, as Soroka will be making his first start in nearly three weeks. The righty did pitch three innings of emergency relief on Sunday but with Kolby Allard hitting the 60-day IL, it’s Soroka’s chance to lock down this spot.
The Atlanta starter has not been great this season but has his legs under him after a long injury that kept him on the shelf. I could see him getting a full leash vs. a Milwaukee offense that's not very threatening and is still missing some key bodies.
Rowdy Tellez and Brian Anderson are still out and Atlanta showed how potent their offense is yesterday as they were staring a five-game losing streak in the face while getting perfect-gamed by Zac Gallen before scoring seven runs over their last nine outs. The Brewers are 8-2 SU over their last 10 but their M/O has been to win low-scoring games and vs. the Braves, that’s a hard thing to do.
Bettors have piled on the Brewers, however, moving the opening line from +115 to +102 at Pinnacle. This could be the price point where bettors see the money come back on the Braves, though. Soroka is being undervalued here and an 18-out and a three-or-fewer-runs-allowed outing is not out of the question vs. the Brewers.
I’m leaning on this Over as well but sharper books have seen some money on the Under at 9. The Brewers have all arms available from their strong bullpen while the only arm questionable for the Braves is closer Raisel Iglesias, who has pitched in two of the last three days and tossed 22 pitches yesterday.
It’s pretty square, but it’s hard not to like the Braves at -109 (Pinnacle), as Soroka is being priced too heavily as a weak starter. Another way to back the Braves would be on their Over 4.5 team total at -107 (Pinnacle).
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Trend to know
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 30 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers
Braves vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, July 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, BSWI |
Starting pitchers
Michael Soroka (1-1, 5.40 ERA): Soroka will be making his first start since July 5 and his fifth on the season. He recently came out of the bullpen in a three-inning effort in his last appearance. He’s taking Kolby Allard’s spot in the rotation and enters tonight with a 19/9 K:BB ratio over 23-plus innings with six home runs for an insane 27.3% HR/FB rate. His 6.67 FIP is hard on the eyes but likely to move south and THE BAT is projecting 83 pitches, 15.1 outs, 4.09 strikeouts, and 2.28 earned runs.
Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA): Peralta is making his 19th start of the season and enters with a 113/40 K:BB ratio over 98 innings with 16 home runs allowed. The righty was great in his first start following the break going six scoreless innings in Cincinnati but going into that game, he had a 5.79 ERA over his previous 10 starts. His command issues can drive his pitch count up and the Brewers are an even 9-9 SU when he starts. THE BAT projects 93 pitches, 16.5 outs, 6.27 strikeouts, and 2.81 earned runs.
