Dylan Dodd will make his MLB debut on Tuesday as he takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves against the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their series at Busch Stadium.
Atlanta won the first game of the series on Monday, with Braves hitters blasting three home runs in an 8-4 victory over the Cardinals.
Tuesday’s pitching matchup has sent the total skyrocketing, but just how high should the number be? We’ll break that down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cardinals on April 4.
Braves vs Cardinals odds
Braves vs Cardinals predictions
It’s rare for a pitcher to reach the major leagues as quickly as Dylan Dodd has, particularly when they don’t enter professional baseball as an elite prospect. That’s not to say hopes weren’t high for the third-round pick, but after three years at Southeast Missouri State, Dodd has spent less than a total of two seasons in the minor leagues before making his debut in the big show today against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Dodd pitched well in spring training to earn a spot in the Atlanta Braves rotation. He struck out 20 batters over 18 innings while boasting a 2.00 ERA and may have a realistic shot at staying in the majors, provided the 24-year-old shows some ability to get out batters at this level.
He’ll have to face one of the tougher lineups in the National League in his debut. The Cardinals scored 4.77 runs per game last season, and are putting up 6.5 runs per game in the early going this year. Even in yesterday’s loss, St. Louis compiled 12 hits, with Paul Goldschmidt slugging his first home run of the year. Facing Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the middle of a lineup will be a tough test for any rookie.
Facing off against Dodd will be veteran southpaw Steven Matz. The former Mets starter went 5-3 with a 5.25 ERA for St. Louis last season, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. Matz enjoyed a strong spring as well, going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 17 2/3 innings pitched. The Cardinals are planning on deploying Matz as a back-of-the-rotation starter in the hopes that he’ll pitch more like he did earlier in his career, rather than repeating the poor season he had in 2022.
Atlanta also boasts an elite offense, led by the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley. That said, Matz has historically pitched well against the Braves, going 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 starts against the team.
Given that we have a game between two questionable starters facing off against strong lineups, it’s to be expected that sportsbooks would set a big total and that bettors would pound the Over. That combination is in full effect for this matchup, with a massive 10 runs being the most common total on the market today.
That’s a huge number for just about any MLB game, and there are signs that it’s too high for this matchup. Dodd looks to be a capable starter who is ready for major league competition, with multiple plus pitches that should challenge opposing lineups. That’s especially true when we consider that nobody has faced Dodd before at this level.
As always, we have to consider the possibility that it will take batters a game or two to learn how to approach this rookie starter. While runs are up in the early going this season, the impact of the MLB rule changes has been relatively modest, and we can’t expect slugfests in every game.
I’m taking the Under tonight.
My best bet: Under 10 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
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Braves vs Cardinals moneyline analysis
The Cardinals opened tonight’s game as a -131 favorite over the Braves. Money has gone slightly in St. Louis’ direction, with the consensus odds now sitting around Cardinals -135. The best number available on the Braves at the time of this writing was +122.
As much as Dodd may have impressed Atlanta in the regular season, it’s understandable that he comes into his first start as an underdog. Even if Dodd does pitch well, the Braves will likely be careful with their young starter, so we can’t expect him to go long in tonight’s game.
It's also hard to peg exactly how well Matz will perform against the Braves lineup. Being a left-handed pitcher doesn’t hurt too much in this case, as both Olsen and Acuna have worse numbers against lefties.
There’s no discounting how dangerous the Atlanta lineup is, but Matz comes in here with a chance to get his season off on the right start. With the more established pitcher and home-field advantage on their side, I have to lean toward the Cardinals in this matchup.
However, if sites start pushing the number on St. Louis to anywhere near the -150 range, I think this is a game worth staying off of entirely.
Braves vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis
When oddsmakers first posted lines for this game, they set the consensus total at 8.5 runs. Bettors quickly jumped all over that number, and the Over/Under has skyrocketed to a full 10 runs as of noon on Tuesday.
As I broke down above, this is hardly a surprise. Considering the depth of these lineups and the trends in MLB so far, the first instinct would be to hammer the Over. And at 8.5 runs, I would have been right on board with that approach.
However, the adjustments to this total have been far too dramatic. Matz has pitched well against most of this lineup in the past, and Dodd has the kind of stuff that could give hitters trouble until they get more reps against him.
If Dodd were up just as a filler starter who never expected to permanently leave the minors, I’d say we could bet this number as high as the books would allow us to. But when actual prospects reach the MLB level, they often find success early before hitting speed bumps down the road.
10 runs is a lot for almost any MLB game outside of Colorado, so I’m definitely backing the Under in this one.
Braves vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | 1 NATIONAL or BOTH LOCAL |
Braves vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Dylan Dodd (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Dodd makes his major league debut after just two seasons in the Braves farm system. The lefty went 15-8 with a 4.02 ERA in college at Southeast Missouri State, then put up a 12-11 record with a 4.38 ERA in his minor league career. Dodd features a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90s, along with a plus changeup and a slider that’s a work in progress.
Steven Matz (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Matz is making his first start of the year after going 5-3 with a 5.25 in 15 appearances (10 starts) with the Cardinals last year. The left-hander has had an inconsistent career since coming up with the New York Mets in 2015, with a propensity for giving up the longball. Matz has had better results when healthy but has struggled to stay on the mound, compiling just 48 innings of work in 2022.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in the Braves’ last seven road games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals
