Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Strider Provides Atlanta with Strong Start

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will wrap up a lengthy five-game series on Sunday afternoon.

New York comes into this one in control of the series. It took two of the first three, including a win last night by a 6-2 scoreline. This flurry in Flushing has widened the gap in the NL East to 5.5 games which is as large as it's been all season.

Can Atlanta rebound in the last game of the series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Braves vs. Mets on August 7, 2022.

Braves vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened up with the Mets as favorites at -135. Since then, odds have mostly stayed the same, and you can get the Braves at a returning price of +115.

The total opened up at 7.0 and has also stayed the same since.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Mets predictions

• Prediction: Braves F5 ML (+185)
• Prediction: Mets F5 TT Under 1.5 (-105)
• Best bet: SGP: deGrom and Strider to record at least 8 Ks (+314)

Picks made on 8/7/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Braves vs Mets game info

• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Sunday, August 7, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (6-3, 2.79 ERA): Strider has burst onto the MLB scene this season as a strikeout machine. He has 133 in his collection in just 88 innings of work. That quickly places him first in the majors with around 13 strikeouts per 9 innings. After a rough start in mid July against the Washington Nationals, Strider has had two consecutive starts allowing just one earned run, both of which have gone over six innings. Like most big-time strikeout throwers, Strider relies heavily on his fastball, which makes nearly 70% of his pitches.

Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.80 ERA): After returning from injury, deGrom made his long-awaited debut to the season last week and looked the part. He went five innings, registered six strikeouts, and gave up one earned run against a depleted Washington Nationals team. The future Hall of Famer doesn't need much introduction as he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball for some time now. Much like his counterpart, he relies heavily on a fastball and elite strikeout rate to get the job done. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Braves' last five when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets

Braves vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It's starting to feel like the race in the NL East is all but done. The Mets have taken control of this division by taking charge of this series. Even if they can get a split in these final two, it will be a big hill for the Braves to climb. For that reason, I'll have to ride with the defending World Series Champions today. 

The situational aspect is a big thing here, and this play has as much to do with the pedigree of this team as anything. You don't see Atlanta lose to a divisional opponent three times in a row. It is 31-13 on the season after a loss, which goes up after a second consecutive loss. So call it championship DNA or whatever you will, but that's certainly the case.

The other aspect of this is I'm just not sure how ready deGrom is for a matchup like this. At his best, he's as good as any pitcher in baseball, but he's not there yet. While he had his strikeout prowess on display against the Nationals, he also looked labored at times. That's at least slightly alarming against a lineup barely at a major league level. 

On the other hand, Strider is in the depths of a pretty fantastic season. He's had issues with hard-hit balls at a rate that's slightly above average. That's nearly always going to be the case with a pitcher that throws as many fastballs as him. The good thing for him is that for everything New York does well, it doesn't hit a ton of hard-hit balls.

It ranks below average in hard-hit balls and has much more of a primary focus on putting balls in play to move the line along. In addition to that, the Mets have had so much success because of their chase contact rate. Unlike many strikeout pitchers, Strider's success hasn't been predicated on high chase rates. 

It's not often I'll back against deGrom, and you rarely feel comfortable doing so, but today is unique. Strider has seen this Mets team once this season and looked comfortable allowing just one earned run, though he didn't go too deep. Along with that, the Braves need this game to keep the divisional race reasonably competitive. 

Based on our projections, this isn't a decisive edge. It doesn't even represent something that will happen more often than not. However, it means the most considerable value on the board. One of the best available prices for Atlanta on the first five money line is +185. Betting against New York is tough. Betting against deGrom is even more challenging, but I have that priced at around +140, so this is one edge I can't turn down. 

Prediction: Braves first five innings moneyline (+185 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I have viewed the totals for this series mostly spot-on. Once again, I feel that based upon both my handicap and projections. Because of that, I'll look away from the whole game and focus on backing Strider again. Give me the Under on the Mets' first five team total. 

As previously mentioned, the Mets are a bit of an enigma from a hitting perspective. Yes, they have a big bat in Pete Alonso and Daniel Vogelbach, but beyond that, there aren't a ton of batters in their lineup racking up significant hard-hit rates or exit velocity numbers. Because of that, Strider is a good matchup against this lineup.

Along with that, New York can have its issues with high-velocity pitchers from time to time. It's why Strider had solid success against it in his first outing. The Mets have just one hitter batting above .300 against fastball pitchers in Sterling Marte, and that's average fastball pitchers. Strider isn't one of those. 

Our projections have both teams scoring just one run in the first five innings. However, we see about a 10% edge on this number vs. the bookmakers. It's a low total, but it should be. We're backing it.

Prediction: Mets first five innings team total Under 1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The safest assumption today is that there will be a lot of swings and misses. Although I'm questionable on how ready deGrom is to go, he is still Jacob deGrom. Furthermore, the previously mentioned strikeout per 9-inning leader in baseball, Spencer Strider, is opposing him. So let's target those swings and misses.

I have some concerns about how deep deGrom will go due to both stamina and performance. However, this Braves team pretty much swings at everything. If this were a situation where deGrom had been pitching all season, I'd probably look at "laddering" his strikeout total. They have the highest swing and chase rates in baseball right now. While I think eventually the Braves will get a run or two against them, I'm expecting a lot of swings and misses between then.

On the other side, Strider's strikeout prop seems mispriced, and that's why I'm taking an alternate of eight. The Braves will need him to go longer than the four innings he did the last time against the Mets. Even then, he got eight strikeouts. This shouldn't be a problem against a pitcher who doesn't rely on batters to chase to get strikeouts. 

Pick: SGP: Jacob deGrom & Spencer Strider both to record at least eight strikeouts (+314 at FanDuel)

Pages related to this topic