Braves vs Mets Prediction, Picks & Best Bet for Today’s MLB Game

The New York Mets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games, a stunning streak of futility for a team that had the best record in all of baseball before this recent stretch.

Like most runs that are this bad, New York has struggled on both sides of the ball. It has watched its formerly untouchable pitching staff allow 6.55 runs per game over the last 11 contests, while the offense has sputtered to a halt, averaging 3.09 runs per game.

There’s no simple explanation for how things can go so wrong, so quickly, nor is there an easy solution. But the Mets have a golden opportunity to at least get a win on the board tonight thanks to a very favorable pitching matchup against the Atlanta Braves.

New York will send one of its most consistent starters to the mound tonight, as Clay Holmes (7-4, 3.04 ERA) takes the ball. The Braves touched up Holmes for three runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings last week, but Holmes’ real issue in that game was his uncharacteristic lack of control. He allowed six walks in the game, by far his worst total of the year.

There’s no reason to think that Holmes won’t rebound from that performance. He’s never been a control pitcher — he has allowed 3.9 walks per nine innings for his career — but he has at least tamped down on those issues in recent years.

And while the converted reliever hasn’t been going deep on a regular basis for the Mets, he has gone five-to-six innings in nearly all of his starts, and we can expect him to do so again tonight.

Perhaps more importantly, the Mets get to face rookie Didier Fuentes, who didn’t look great in his first major league appearance. Fuentes allowed four runs on six hits over five innings of work, a poor but not a notably terrible start for a player making their MLB debut.

What’s more concerning about that effort is that it came against a weak Miami Marlins lineup that’s only averaging 4.03 runs per game this season. Fuentes struck out just three batters over his five innings of work, and will likely have more trouble against a New York lineup heavy on veterans that can hit the ball hard.

It’s also notable that Fuentes didn’t exactly dominate at the minor league level this year either, posting a 4.81 ERA split between three different levels.

Fuentes is way ahead of schedule, as he’s just 20 years old. But he’s being rushed into big league service, and isn’t ready to face off against a solid MLB lineup.

No matter how much they’ve been struggling, I have to take the Mets to get to Fuentes and score a win tonight.

I’m expecting Holmes to come up big tonight in order to snap the Mets out of their losing ways. That’s the basis of my same-game parlay for this game, which starts with taking New York to win outright in this one.

I’m also taking the Under tonight, as the total has been set at a relatively high 9.5. Even with what looks like a good matchup, I can’t predict a huge breakout game for the Mets offense, which means a low-scoring game and a New York win may be strongly correlated.

I’m also throwing in a bet on Holmes to hit the Over on his total of 4.5 strikeouts tonight.

Holmes is coming off a five-strikeout performance in his last start against the Braves, a game in which he only lasted 4 2/3 innings. Holmes should be able to go a little deeper tonight, and should be a favorite to get to at least five strikeouts, something he’s done in eight of his first 15 starts this season.