Braves vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Red Sox Making Strides in the Standings

The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves will continue a three-game series this evening.

Don't look now, but the Red Sox are making a surge. Who knows if it'll be enough to make the playoffs, but they've played significantly better over the last month. Boston is tied for the best record over the previous ten games in the AL East, and the blowout win over Atlanta last night has punctuated this recent play. The Braves have been in the midst of a slide. They still have a firm grasp of the NL East but have lost two of the last three.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Red Sox on Wednesday, July 26th.

Braves vs Red Sox odds

Braves vs Red Sox predictions

I'm still trying to decide how I feel about the recent struggles of the Atlanta Braves. 

It experienced losses of 7 runs and 6 runs over the ten games. Such margin of losses had only occurred four times total across the first half of the season. With that said, losses were always coming because regression was always coming. Atlanta's torrid stretch at the beginning of the season was never sustainable. Even with offensive numbers that could break Statcast, the pitching accompanying it would always bring more losses. For the moment, I'm in a holding pattern with the Braves. I will ignore a side aspect for my best bet and head to the prop market. 

Spencer Strider has a problem, and we have enough data now to suggest it's a real problem. It's two-fold. 

Strider needs to develop more tools in the toolbox to induce soft contact. His hard-hit rate sits in the bottom of the league, which isn't uncommon for such a heavy fastball pitcher, but it's more of an issue for him than others. Allow me to explain. His fastball velocity is in the top 5% of baseball, and among starting pitchers, it's the best in the league. As you likely know, he also pairs that with a ridiculous strikeout rate that is easily the best in the league. The trade-off of that is a negative one, and it's what happens in the later innings — he gets tired. Without a strong enough secondary pitch that Strider can rely on, we then see some struggles. We've seen it happen in back-to-back starts now, the latest in which he gave up back-to-back home runs before recording an out against the DBacks. It also occurred against the White Sox. Strider exceeded this number in both of these starts, which is vitally important to remember. However, neither of these teams possess the offensive capabilities that can stress Strider, mainly when considering how the Red Sox perform at home.

The second part is how inefficient Strider can be and how the Red Sox are built to target that. Since the break, he's cut down on the walks, but I don't think it's a fully remedied issue. Before July, Strider had a run of four of five games issuing multiple walks and was below the league average in runs + hits per inning (a number that ticked up in road starts). Alongside this? So much of Strider's game relies on chase, and I don't think he'll get that tonight. The Red Sox chase at a below-average rate, and when they do, they make good contact at a high clip with a chase contact rate near 60% — that's the 4th best in the league.

I envision Strider getting to the 6th inning tonight and struggling to finish things. We're getting value on this number because he's exceeded regularly over the last few starts, but the Red Sox present a unique challenge. Back them to do enough to run him before recording 18 outs.

My best bet: Spencer Strider Under 17.5 outs (+120 at Bet365)

Braves vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Strider Under 17.5 outs

Strider Over 7.5 strikeouts

Braves ML

+1,000 at bet365

We're attempting to thread a tight window with a few non-correlated plays here for a strong multiplier. 

Leading off tonight's same-game parlay is our Spencer Strider Under outs play. We've explained that to a high degree above. We're pairing that with Strider's strikeout number Over. These things don't correlate in any way, but because of that, they have value. I've learned not to overthink things with Strider and play his strikeout numbers when they are below nine. He's gone Over this in 75% of his last 20 games, 70% of his previous 10 games, and 60% in road games. There's only so much more to add. I like the value on Strider's out total better for my best bet, but this is slightly stronger from a hit perspective.

Finishing off things is the Braves' moneyline play. We'll talk more about this below, but this is a fade of Brayan Bello. I'm a fan of Bello long-term, but he does two things inefficiently that make him a fade here. One of those is not missing enough bats; he remains in the bottom 30% of baseball in expected batting average. The second is he gives up too much hard contact with a rate that follows this closely. Even though they've struggled a bit lately, these aren't issues you want to have when facing Atlanta. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

As noted above, I lean toward the Braves. The best market price you can find is -160, and I've projected them closer to -175. I understand being skeptical about laying juice that high in a sport like baseball, but I am certainly projecting value at this current number.

This Braves offense is still excellent. They remain 1st in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. They are the only team in baseball that ranks in the top three of all those metrics, let alone 1st in all of them. This is an excellent spot to buy low on Atlanta. Bello is giving up far too much contact on the season to trust him in this spot, and if he continues giving up that rate of contact, he will run into some significant issues.

The Over also has to be the lean here, but I'm not playing it.

My projections don't see much value in the number, and because of that, I'm going to stay away. With that said, if you've read much of this analysis, you understand that expecting runs from both teams isn't crazy. We've talked a great deal about Bello and Strider here. While each is some of the stronger pitchers in the game (one so much more than the other), both teams match up reasonably well against them. I'm hoping we can get a scoreless first inning, and then I may be interested in jumping in on the live total.

Trend to know

You'd be down over 15 units if you blindly bet the Braves Under over the last 90 games, as they are 52-37 to the Over in that stretch. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox

Braves vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.78 ERA): The Spencer Strider experience remains interesting. He's the best pitcher in baseball at the moment and the favorite to win the CY Young. However, his performances since the break have been relatively mixed. If you watched each, you call them dominating ones because of what much of the game looked like. But the numbers? They are just average. Of course, there are the massive strikeout numbers of 10 and 13 against the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. However, he's ended those two starts surrendering five earned and four earned runs. A team like the Braves and its offense can manage that, but it's far from a Cy Young pace, and that's not something you want from your ace in the playoffs.

Brayan Bello (7-6, 3.60 ERA): Bello has made some massive strides from where he was at the beginning of the season to where he is now. The return from the break has been so-so, and he's coming off the worst start he's had in a while against the Oakland Athletics. There he was roughed up a good amount allowing three home runs and six earned runs in just four innings pitched. Still, even with that in mind, Bello has been impressive. Before that start, Bello had a string of seven consecutive games going six innings or longer. The main issue for Bello remains the improvement of his whiff rate. It's average, but average isn't good enough when allowing as much hard contact as him. 

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