This NL series continues on Wednesday evening with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park.
My Brewers vs. Giants predictions are bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Brewers vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Giants moneyline (+150 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Colin Rea on Wednesday, and he should be a good sell-high candidate. While Rea boasts a 3.72 ERA through 27 appearances on the mound this season, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
The right-hander possesses a 4.97 xERA and ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the San Francisco Giants, a team that Rea is 1-2 against through three career meetings with a 5.29 ERA.
Meanwhile, left-hander Blake Snell takes the mound for San Francisco. One of the league’s premier arms, Snell sports a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 17 starts this year.
His analytics are even stronger, given that the southpaw owns a 2.79 xERA and ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Entering this matchup in particularly dominant form, Snell has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his past 11 starts.
The two-time Cy Young winner boasts a 2-0 mark over that stretch, boasting a 1.42 ERA. Each of those two wins came by a three-run margin.
Brewers vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants -1.5
Blake Snell Over 7.5 strikeouts
LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to back Snell in the prop market as the southpaw ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff rate and 96th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find Snell’s strikeout prop at 7.5, a total he has surpassed in six of his past eight starts.
Through 47 combined career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Brewers lineup possesses an astonishingly poor 36.2% strikeout rate and 42.2% whiff rate.
If we are backing San Francisco to win by two or more runs, then we need some hits as well. Enter LaMonte Wade Jr., who boasts a .333 BA through six plate appearances against Rea. Wade has also collected three hits over his past four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Giants odds
Brewers vs Giants live odds
Brewers vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +1.5 (-196) | San Francisco -1.5 (+162)
- Run line: Milwaukee +116 | San Francisco -134
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)
Brewers vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco opened as a -134 favorite and has since been bet up to -138.
- The total opened at seven and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- I believe that it is more likely that this total moves to 7.5 rather than 6.5, given that a sub-seven total with Rea’s expected regression feels improbable.
Brewers vs Giants trend
12 of San Francisco’s past 17 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Giants.
Brewers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, NBCSBA |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (12-4, 3.72 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (2-3, 3.62 ERA) |
Brewers vs Giants latest injuries
Brewers vs Giants weather
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