The New York Mets try to turn things around as they welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to Citi Field on Tuesday night. The Mets have lost seven of their last nine games and have fallen to fourth place in the NL East standings while the Brewers are atop the NL Central.
Milwaukee won the first game in this four-game series last night but the home side is expected to bounce back today with MLB betting lines opening with the Mets as -140 favorites. Here are my best free Brewers vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for June 27.
Brewers vs Mets odds
Brewers vs Mets predictions
The big question for bettors is can you trust Julio Teheran? The righty looked like a future star earlier in his career but his play steadily declined and he found himself out of the majors last year.
The 32-year-old was signed by the Padres in the offseason but was released after mediocre play in the minors and preseason. The Brewers snatched him up after their rotation was decimated by injuries, and he has far exceeded expectations.
Through six starts, Teheran has a 1.53 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an OBA of .192. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those outings and is coming off a performance against the Diamondbacks where he pitched five innings of shutout ball.
Despite boasting some dangerous hitters in their lineup, the Mets rank a modest 20th in the majors in OPS (.712) with that number dropping to .683 this month.
While Teheran's ridiculous numbers aren't sustainable long-term, the fact that his hard hit rate, barrel rate, and expected ERA (3.29) are all in the Top 25th percentile is a good indication that he will continue to be productive, if not necessarily elite.
With the Brewers struggling at the dish and their relievers pitching to a 4.57 ERA since the start of May, I'm a bit wary of backing them on the moneyline even at plus money. After all, they've lost in four of Teheran's six starts this season averaging just 0.5 runs per game in those defeats. However, I'll gladly back Teheran on his earned runs prop.
My best bet: Julio Teheran Under 2.5 earned runs (-115)
Brewers vs Mets same-game parlay
Julio Teheran Under 2.5 earned runs
Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 singles
Five innings result Brewers
Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil has a career batting average of .300 but he has gone ice-cold lately, which is giving us a nice number on his Over 0.5 singles prop. Especially in combination with the Under on Teheran's earned runs.
Keep in mind that lefthanded hitters have always had more success against Teheran than righties and McNeil has gone 5-13 at the dish against Teheran in his career.
While the Brewers' ugly offensive production has me cautious about backing them on the moneyline, I do like the idea of taking them on the five innings result in a parlay. Getting +550 on this combination is definitely good value for fading struggling Mets starter David Peterson.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Brewers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets opened as -140 favorites and have grown to -150 by 9:30 a.m. ET. That movement is a bit surprising when you consider the vast discrepancy between these starting pitchers and how poorly New York has played lately.
While the Brewers are starting the red-hot Teheran, Peterson is returning to the mound for the Mets after being demoted to the minors last month. The lefty had been awful to start the year, going 1-6 with an 8.08 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and an OBA of .329 through eight starts.
The Mets have been tumbling down the standings in June, going just 5-16 in their last 21 games while the Brewers are 7-3 in their previous 10 contests. That said, the Brewers have been awful at the plate. They're 28th in the majors in OPS (.675) with that number dipping to an MLB-worst .647 against southpaws like Peterson.
The Over/Under opened at 9 and has stayed steady. However with the Over 9 opening at -110 and now installed at -115, don't be surprised if this total ticks up to 9.5.
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Trend to know
The Under is 21-6-2 in Milwaukee's last 29 games with the total set between 9.0 and 10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs Mets
Brewers vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, SNY |
Starting pitchers
Julio Teheran (2-2, 1.53 ERA): The two-time All-Star found himself out of the majors and pitched overseas in Mexico and the DR last season. After looking subpar at Triple-A El Paso and posting a 5.17 ERA in 15 2/3 innings during spring training he was released by the Padres in May. However, he has been on fire ever since signing with Milwaukee, pitching to a 0.88 WHIP with an OBA of .192 through six starts.
David Peterson (1-6, 8.08 ERA): Peterson broke out last season, posting a 3.83 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in 105 2/3 innings. However, the 27-year-old saw massive regression this year and is in the bottom 26th percentile in barrel rate, hard hit rate, and expected ERA (5.15).
He was sent down to the minors last month and despite a 4.86 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A Syracuse, he has been recalled to the rotation to make his first MLB start since May 15.
